HOW DARK IS THE NIGHT: THE CONSUMERS’ MOOD COPING WITH THE CRISIS. EVIDENCES FROM ISAE CONSUMER SURVEY
HOW DARK IS THE NIGHT: THE CONSUMERS’ MOOD COPING WITH THE CRISIS. EVIDENCES FROM ISAE CONSUMER SURVEY

Summary/Abstract: Since 2008 the global economy, following also the financial crisis, is facing a severe decline in economic activity and the economic estimates concerning the first quarter 2009 are even worse. The Italian Consumers Confidence Indicators (CCI), however, after a sharp fall beginning in 2007, is unexpectedly showing some signals of recovery since the end of summer 2008. It seems that the effects of the financial crisis have not influenced Italian consumers yet, as it is documented worldwide. It is worth sorting out this puzzle. The paper tries to explain these trends starting from the role played by the single elements on which the composite indicator of confidence climate is determined. Then the recent price evolution and its influence on the Italian Consumer Confidence dynamics are investigated. Since end of summer 2008, the sharp inflation slowdown together with nominal wages increase, may have contributed to keep confidence from falling. A further tool for explaining recent CCI dynamics could also be represented by a micro-data analysis of opinions of population sub-groups, because some of these could have been more exposed than others to the crisis. Therefore the paper explores reactions of different consumers segments (e.g. by income, professional status, household composition).

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