THE FIRST YEAR OF THE CONFLICT IN UKRAINE: POLITICAL AND MILITARY CONSEQUENCES FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE
THE FIRST YEAR OF THE CONFLICT IN UKRAINE: POLITICAL AND MILITARY CONSEQUENCES FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE

Summary/Abstract: The outcome of the conflict in Ukraine will bring fundamental political, military, economic, and social consequences define global and regional balance of a power and fate of number of international organizations, including the European Union and NATO. The aim of this paper is to analyze political and military consequences of the first year of the conflict in Ukraine for countries of Central and Eastern Europe, including the Baltic States and the further development of the trans-Atlantic link for European security, including the development of NATO Alliance until 2030. Fundamentally different perceptions of threats in the Russian Federation and in NATO, EU countries, and Ukraine led to the beginning of the Russian Federation’s military action against Ukraine in February 24, 2022. Since then, military conflict in Ukraine has evolved into full-scale war on terrain of Ukraine and increasingly negative escalation of political, military, and economic relationships between Russian Federation and NATO, EU and other actors, bringing parties to nuclear standoff. War in Ukraine has brought a substantial political and military endurance test for NATO and the European Union. It is obvious that there are several scenarios of development of war in Ukraine ranging from complete military victory for Ukraine and, subsequently, for the West to complete military victory of the Russian Federation in Ukraine via long-term warfare of attrition.

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