Od NAFTA do USMCA: ewolucja regionalnej integracji gospodarczej a rozwój meksykańskiego przemysłu samochodowego
From NAFTA to USMCA: the evolution of regional economic integration and the development of the Mexican automotive industry

Summary/Abstract: The aim of this article is to examine the development of the Mexican automotive industry after the country’s accession to NAFTA. Specifically, it aims to establish how the volume and structure of production changed, along with the proportion of production that was exported, particularly to other NAFTA members. It also examines how the development of the automotive industry has influenced the growth of foreign investment and the emergence in Mexico of new concerns wishing to enter the NAFTA market. It analyses changes in the distribution of the automotive industry, showing that increasing cooperation within NAFTA has influenced it to shift closer to the US border. It also seeks to establish the effects of the evolution of NAFTA and the establishment of USMCA on the automotive sector. The research uses official data from 1990 to 2022 documenting the sector’s activities, and economic censuses. The results show that entry into NAFTA was a major developmental boost for the automotive sector in Mexico. Its rapid growth was associated with a shift of production to the north, a change in production structure and greater export specialisation. The success of this sector was one of the impulses for the renegotiation of the signed agreements and the creation of USMCA, which was intended to slow down and limit the development of the sector in Mexico. The full impact of USMCA is difficult to assess as its introduction coincided with the COVID-19 pandemic, which had a strongly negative impact on the functioning of the sector. It is therefore recommended that further research be conducted to determine, from a longer‑ term perspective, which changes are due to the new realities of USMCA and which are the effects of the pandemic.

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