Улога стратегијског предвиђања у заједничкој одбрани и безбедности Европске уније
The role of the strategic foreshight in the EU's common security and defence

Summary/Abstract: Strategic forecasting is a relatively new approach in contemporary international relations analysis. It implies the undertaking of various activities aimed at creating scenarios about the possible directions of development of the effects of those foreign-political events that change the existing international system. Making decisions in diplomacy and defence is, therefore, very important. Due to the dynamics of international relations, strategic forecasting is becoming an increasingly important instrument for planning and undertaking defence activities that respond to the changes that have occurred or reduce the effects of those changes. Strategic forecasting has its own methodology, holistic approach, and specific terminology. In order for the results of strategic foresight to fulfil their purpose, the adaptability and flexibility of institutions and decision-makers are required. The EU saw the importance of strategic forecasting, which is why, with the latest strategic document on the planning of the Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP), it established a whole series of auxiliary services and bodies that will deal with it. Using historical, legal, and comparative methods, the author investigates the role of strategic forecasting in the EU and indirectly analyses its importance for the Republic of Serbia.

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