TRUST IN GOVERNMENT AND INTENTION TO EMIGRATE IN A POST-SOVIET COUNTRY: EVIDENCE FROM AZERBAIJAN
TRUST IN GOVERNMENT AND INTENTION TO EMIGRATE IN A POST-SOVIET COUNTRY: EVIDENCE FROM AZERBAIJAN

Summary/Abstract: Intention to emigrate has been one of the most challenging issues globally over the last decade for both migrant-sending and receiving countries. Rising emigration intentions trigger migration attempts and brain drain, while migrant-receiving countries are challenged by illegal emigration. Self-perceived trust in government is one of the fundamental determinants of citizens' emigration aspirations. This research applies path analyses to explore direct and indirect effects of trust in government on emigrating intentions in a post-soviet country – Azerbaijan. Using a pool of two social survey data (𝑁 = 4092, 𝑛𝑀𝑎𝑙𝑒 = 2106, 𝑛𝐹𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒 = 1986, 𝑀𝑒𝑎𝑛𝐴𝑔𝑒 = 31.82) within a serial mediation analysis framework, we conclude that the trust in government has a significant direct (65-70%) and indirect (30-35%) negative impact on emigration aspirations among the people of Azerbaijan. The relationship is mediated by self-reported life satisfaction. Perceived income adequacy also mediates the relationship indirectly via life satisfaction. A key novelty of the study is that, contrary to popular belief, emigration aspirations in Azerbaijan are revealed to be less economic in motivation and are mainly explained by the lack of trust in government, which also reduces individuals' satisfaction with life. Therefore, improving the quality of public services and the trust in government institutions would reverse intentions to emigrate. The research can be replicated in other developing countries, and the findings can be used to design policies aimed at controlling international emigration issues.

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