Изследване на измененията в коефициента на възрастова зависимост на населението и на техните ефекти за икономиката
Study on the Changes in the Age Dependency Ratio and their Effects on the Economy

Summary/Abstract: Assessing the impact of the ongoing demographic processes on Bulgaria’s economy and social system requires a complex approach, since the in-depth analysis of the situation and the causes that lead to such demographic processes are a reliable basis on which to develop a concept for an active demographic policy. The purpose of this article is to reveal and measure the changes in the age structure of the population, to model the trends in the change of the age dependency ratio, and to evaluate the economic and social effects of population aging, by usingstatistical methods of analysis. Statistical methods are used in the study to analyse dynamic series, to analyse structural changes and differences and to reveal relationships and dependencies. The results of evaluating the intensity of the changes in the age structure provide grounds for the conclusion that the changes in the age structure based on the three age groups – 0–14, 15–64 and 65+ compared to the base structure, are manifested more slowly in comparison with the changes in the structure of the population on the basis of consecutive cohorts formed by five-year age intervals. When compared with the structure of the previous year, the value of the ratios would turn out to be lower and would indicate weaker structural changes, since the age structure in the considered age intervals does not imply sharp changes within a year-long period. The developed trend models would make it possible to develop short-term forecasts of the expected values of the age dependency ratios by years with the corresponding confidence intervals of the forecast, evaluation of potential changes in the case of changes in the factors affecting the main demographic processes. The significant changes in the age structure of the population of Bulgaria and the deepening of the population ageing processes bring to the fore some important issues relatedto economic development, stability of the national economy, stability of the pension system and fiscal stability, due to the increased pension-related expenditures, expenditures on health care, social assistance, etc.

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