PENSİYA SİSTEMİNİN TƏKMİLLƏŞMƏSİ VƏ MALİYYƏ DAYANIQLIĞININ BƏZİ MƏSƏLƏLƏRİ
PENSION SYSTEM IMPROVEMENT AND SOME ISSUES OF FINANCIAL SUSTAINABILITY

Summary/Abstract: The article reflects the analysis of expenses for the payment of labor pensions as the main expenditure item of the budget of the pension system. The current financial provision of pension payments is investigated. The factors affecting the financial stability of the pension system and the budget deficit are analyzed. The trends of changes in the coefficient of “Pension replacement rate” as a criterion of the economic efficiency of the state pension system over the past decade have been revealed, the influence of demographic development of the population on the pension payment system has been studied. The goals and results of the pension reform carried out in the country are commented on. Proposals are made to regulate external factors affecting the development of the pension system. The basis of the pension system model is the balance of its income and expenses. The income of the Pension Fund consists of mandatory insurance payments of the officially employed population and deductions from the state budget. In this regard, an econometric model of the dependence of the pension system on factors affecting the budget deficit is constructed. Based on this multiple regression model, a short-term (five-year) forecast of deductions from the state budget was developed in order to balance the budget of the State Social Protection Fund. The upper and lower bounds of the forecast, the results and the confidence interval are interpreted

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