Türkiye’de Sektörel İstihdam ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Saklı Eşbütünleşme ve Asimetrik Nedensellik Testi
The Relationship Between Sectoral Employment and Economic Growth In Turkey: Hidden Cointegration And Asymmetric Causality Test

Summary/Abstract: A government implements economic policies to manage the economy and improve welfare conditions in a country. Providing productive spaces for the labor force in a country is also one of the primary objectives of economic policy makers. Therefore, the sectors in which the labor force is located and its contributions to the economy are important parameters. In this study, the relationship between sectoral employment rates and economic growth is analyzed. In the study, firstly, with the changing economic policies in Turkey after 1980, the sectoral outlook of the labor force is presented, and various evaluations are made. Then, hidden cointegration and asymmetric causality tests were conducted with quarterly data set for the period between 2000Q1-2022Q3. These tests allow us to test whether there is a relationship between positive and negative shocks to both sectoral employment and economic growth. Positive shocks reflect increases in the relevant variable, while negative shocks reflect decreases. According to the test results, there is a cointegration relationship between increases in agricultural employment and both increases and decreases in economic growth. Another cointegration relationship is between decreases in construction employment and increases in economic growth. There is also a causality relationship between increases in service sector employment and decreases in economic growth.

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