Power Transitions and Conflict in the 20th and 21st century
Power Transitions and Conflict in the 20th and 21st century

Summary/Abstract: The geopolitical axis of the 21st century is indicative of a new world order that reflects power transitions as a vehicle for accelerated conflict. However, precedent rests not with historical analysis but with global changes towards political polarizing agendas. This article refutes the proposition that power shifts, such as those which caused so much conflict in the twentieth century, will be a key driver of conflict in the twenty-first century. Accordingly, the case is put forward that the fundamental ontological, and therefore epistemological, conditions of the international system have changed so radically in the last hundred years that the kinds of outcomes witnessed in the previous century, and previous system, are extremely improbable in the current day. For a case study, this paper looks at the clash between Western and Islamic civilisation, paying close attention to the rise in Islamism generally, Islamic terror groups specifically, and the confluences – in civilisational terms – between these two phenomena. In conclusion, the paper asserts that much evidence is available to support the contention that a clash between these civilisations will be a potent driver of conflict in the immediate future.

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