ТЕОРИЈА КАТАСТРОФЕ И МЕЂУНАРОДНИ ОДНОСИ
THE THEORУ OF CATASTROPHE AND INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

Summary/Abstract: This is an illustration of the possibility of applying mathematical theory of catastrophe to international relations as well as an attempt to point at great possibilities of interdisciplinary apparatus of cybernetics. Further research is, however, necessary, particularly in the sphere of science of international relations in order to conceptualize and operationalize the variables, either the control or behaviouralones. Also the concept of time has to be considered in the changes, meaning in relation to the time effects. Further generalization is then necessary of the model, which implies introducing new factors and new fields and singularities, which could mean a good basis for a more complex analysis of phenomena of international relations. Examples are reviewed also of a high-quality analysis, but further efforts are needed in order to elaborate empirical features of dial theory and its computer simulation, especially in the area of incertainty as a connection factor (i.e. application of the Monte Carlo method) and in case of multidimensional catastrophes. Although the application of the TC achieved extremely good results in the field of natural and social sciences, its further implementation particularly in social sciences may amount to interesting results. One of these areas, and the one which is most adaptable, should be the science of international relations, where notions of conflict and cooperation, as well as sudden transitivity, divergence, compromise and the like, make the basic and creative scientific categories.

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