Vývoj indexu závislosti seniorů při navrhované změně důchodového věku a různých variantách demografického vývoje
Development of the index of the dependence of senior citizens concerning proposed changes to the retirement age and different variants of demographic development

Summary/Abstract: According to current legislation the statutory retirement age in the Czech Republic should increase permanently with constant increment 2 months for each subsequent generation without any upper boundary. This fact is often criticized both by some experts and political representatives. The Expert Committee on Pension Reform of the Czech Republic recommends to determine the retirement age as the age when the percentage share of the life expectancy (calculated as the average of these expectancies for males and females) in respect of the total expected length of life at that age will be about 25%, i.e. one quarter of their total expected length of life. Of course the generation life tables should be used for this computations. But the main proposal of the current prepared change in pension legislation is to stop the increase of retirement age at 65 years. The paper presents expected development of the value of old age dependency ratio until 2100 where the upper threshold of the productive age is supposed to be equal the retirement age at given time. In the population projection used for computations mortality is supposed according the medium variant of the latest Czech Statistical Office projection in combination with two (low or high) variants of fertility development as well as with low or high net international migration variants. Three variant of retirement age development are supposed: stopping of the retirement age rise at 65 years since 2030 (low variant) or lower permanent rise to 68 years 10 months until 2100 - corresponding the receipt of the old age pension approximately 25 % of the life span (medium variant) or unchanged rise until 75 years in 2100 according to current legislation (high variant). In the case of stopping the rise of retirement age would the old age dependency ratio values be in the future decades higher than at present time while the preservation of current legislation would bring lower values than now. The medium variant expecting the receipt of the old age pension approximately 25 % of the life span thus seems to be appropriate compromise.

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