Dynamics and variability of the conflict in Ukraine. Condition and perspective analysis
Dynamics and variability of the conflict in Ukraine. Condition and perspective analysis

Summary/Abstract: The purpose of this article is to analyse the dynamics and variability of the conflict between the Russian Federation and Ukraine. As noted inthe introduction, the term “conflict” refers to the state of bilateral relations between the two countries since 2014, nevertheless, for the analysis of the current state of the conflict, the key date is 24 February 2022. Since the start ofthe invasion, described by the Russians as a “special military operation”, wehave seen an increase in the dynamics and intensity of the conflict at all levels. The intensification of military operations has also affected the political,economic, and social spheres. Just when it seemed that the so-called “annexation referenda” would mark a new phase in the course of the conflict, andthe scenario of a “Ukrainian version” of a low-intensity conflict would becomemore feasible, it turned out that the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces ofUkraine changed not only the situation on the frontline but also dynamizedthe other levels on which the conflict is taking place. This forced the author toupdate the analysed phenomenon. The article concludes with the constatation that we are in a “period of transition”, and the coming winter may onceagain change the situation of both sides in the ongoing war

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