ANFIS YÖNTEMİ KULLANILARAK TÜRKİYE'DE GSYİH TAHMİNİ
FORECASTING GDP IN TÜRKİYE USING ANFIS METHOD

Summary/Abstract: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is one of the important indicators of a country's macroeconomic status. Predicting GDP growth with great precision; It is important for policymakers, central banks and other economic actors in determining and planning fiscal and monetary policies. In this study, an adaptive network-based fuzzy logic inference system (ANFIS), which is one of the artificial intelligence methods, is used to predict Turkey's economic growth (GDP). Economic growth, namely GDP, is estimated based on the inputs of exports, imports, government expenditures, consumer price index (CPI) and inflation rate. The reliability of the ANFIS model was determined using various statistical indicators. The mean absolute percent error rate (MAPE) was1.5137 and the coefficient of determination (R2 ) was 0.9949. It has been seen that these values are at acceptable levels and this model can be used successfully in estimating economic growth. The results from the study can be used to predict GDP growth with great precision, and to set and plan fiscal and economic policies.

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