Analiza ryzyka rozpadu Zjednoczonego Królestwa Wielkiej Brytanii i Irlandii Północnej – casus Szkocji
Disintegration risk analysis of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland – case of Scotland

Summary/Abstract: The aim of the study is to analyze and attempt to assess the risk of the break-up of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland based on the latest surveys. The institution of a referendum and public opinion polls concerning the aspirations for independence showed that the support in the examined area is spread more or less “half and half”. However, it should be emphasized that public opinion is susceptible to changes – new events taking place on the political scene and unexpected economic factors may significantly change the results of the research. The conclusions from the considerations indicate that the biggest problem is the lack of equal position between the central and regional authorities, but also the issue of a strong sense of belonging to their national group. As many as 84% of the surveyed Scots identify “very strongly” as ‘Scot’. Despite the existence of political, legal, organizational and economic obstacles, the persistence and persistence of the Scots in their pursuit of regaining sovereignty may pose the greatest threat. The approval of the UK Parliament to hold an independence referendum in Scotland could be the first step in the disintegration of Great Britain. The attempts to regain independence by Scotland are a significant threat because they affect the sphere of the United Kingdom’s integrity and are associated with an impasse in the internal dimension. The lack of an agreement reached between ‘Scotland and England’ will undoubtedly affect the internal and global order. Although the topic of UK disintegration has been overshadowed by the deepest recession in over 300 years caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, the risk of disintegration is likely in the coming years.

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