Niepewność a pieniądz gotówkowy w okresie pandemii: przypadek Polski
Uncertainty and cash during a pandemic: the case of Poland

Summary/Abstract: The increase in the cash supply is one of the most interesting monetary phenomena in recent years. In particular, the period of the COVID-19 pandemic was marked by a significant increase in the cash in circulation. The article considers whether the uncertainty related to the effects of the pandemic was the source of the increased cash supply during the pandemic in Poland. In order to measure uncertainty, the Pandemic Uncertainty Index and the Economic Uncertainty Index were constructed (monthly data for the years 2019–2021). It was assumed that the level of uncertainty experienced by households and non-financial enterprises is better illustrated by search terms in an internet search engine than (as is the case with other uncertainty measures) press publications or financial market indicators. Both new indicators are related to the cash supply in Poland during the pandemic, and this relationship is particularly strong in the case of the Pandemic Uncertainty Index. Changes in the cash supply in Poland were not related to the dynamics of retail sales (therefore, changes in the transactional demand for money can be excluded). The actual number of COVID-19 cases and the interest rate are also irrelevant. Maintaining a cash reserve is therefore treated by entities as an optimal strategy in a period of increased uncertainty. This cash function creates a new context in the discussions about the full waiver of cash.

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