Türkiye Altın Fiyatlarını (Gau/Try) Etkileyen Faktörlerin Birbirleri İle Mukayeseli Olarak İncelenmesi
A Comparative Analysis of the Factors Affecting Turkey's Gold Prices (Gau/Try)

Summary/Abstract: Purpose –The purpose of this study; It is a comparative analysis of the factors affecting Turkey's gold prices (Grams of Gold/Turkish Lira Parity). Design/methodology/approach – In the research, the variables explaining Turkey's gold prices come to equilibrium in the long run, and the deviations from the equilibrium in the short run come back to the equilibrium in the long run. According to the causality analysis, inflation, Bist-100, interest rate difference of 5% and VIX fear index at 10% significance level are the reasons for Turkey's gold prices. In the short run, all variables are statistically significant except for USD/TL at the 1st delay level. Among these variables, inflation, oil prices and the coefficient of the VIX index are negative in the short run, and the coefficients of other variables are positive. In the long run, oil prices, interest rate difference are significant at the level of 5%, and the Bist-100 index is significant at the level of 10%. Among these variables, the coefficient of the Bist-100 index and oil prices variables has a positive sign, and the coefficient of the interest difference variable has a negative sign. According to the variance decomposition results, the order of importance of the variables in explaining the gold prices is; interest difference, CPI, oil prices, Bist-100, CDS, Dollar/TL, VIX. According to the impact-response analysis; in the early periods; The gold prices variable reacted negatively to inflation, interest rate difference and shocks in the VIX index, while other variables reacted positively. Findings – In the research, the variables explaining Turkey's gold prices come to equilibrium in the long run, and the deviations from the equilibrium in the short run come back to the equilibrium in the long run. According to the causality analysis, inflation, Bist-100, interest rate difference of 5% and VIX fear index at 10% significance level are the reasons for Turkey's gold prices. In the short run, all variables are statistically significant except for USD/TL at the 1st delay level. Among these variables, inflation, oil prices and the coefficient of the VIX index are negative in the short run, and the coefficients of other variables are positive. In the long run, oil prices, interest rate difference are significant at the level of 5%, and the Bist-100 index is significant at the level of 10%.

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