СТАТИЧНИ И ДИНАМИЧНИ ОЦЕНКИ НА ВЕРОЯТНОСТТА ЗА МИГРАЦИЯ В ГЕРМАНИЯ
STATIC AND DYNAMIC ESTIMATES OF PROBABILITY TO MIGRATION TO GERMANY
Author(s): Maria ZlatevaSubject(s): Economy, National Economy, Socio-Economic Research
Published by: Софийски университет »Св. Климент Охридски«
Keywords: human migration; binary logistic regression; extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost); Cox regression; survival analysis; grandient boosting survival tree
Summary/Abstract: The study contains a retrospectical review of German immigration situation in 2014 and estimates the probability to migrate to the country in the beginning of the migration crises. This analysis is conducted in order to identify socio-demographic, economic and political factors which have led to the unprecedented increase in immigration rate in Germany. Although human migrationis a global phenomenon which is mostly analysed and predicted by macroeconomic models, in this study the focus is placed on the individuals and their households. They are the subjects associated with the probability of migration. The probability for migration to Germany is estimated in a static and dynamic aspect by comparing two types of econometric models – regression models and gradient boosting models.
Journal: Годишник на Стопанския факултет на СУ „Св. Климент Охридски“
- Issue Year: 21/2022
- Issue No: 1
- Page Range: 47-71
- Page Count: 25
- Language: Bulgarian