1997 Asya Krizinin Merkezindeki Üç Ülkede Çeyrekler Îtibarıyle Finansal Kabarcıklar ve Kabarcık Patlamaları: Güney Kore, Filipinler, Tayland (1990-2019)
Financial Bubbles and Bursts by Quarterly Periods in the Three Countries at the Core of 1997 Asian Crisis: South Korea, Philippines, and Thailand (1990-2019)

Summary/Abstract: The bubble of price, as theoretical, is “too big deviation of asset’s price from its fundamental (intrinsic) value”. In regard to the country, as empirical; (i) financial asset price bubble happens when “a change (increase) in the financial nominal price index (percent) exceeds the sum of inflation and economic growth rates, at least as 25 %”, on the other hand, (ii) the bubble burst happens when there is “a too sharp decline in the financial asset nominal price index”, and when there is a decrease in the index in related to the total of inflation and growth rates, at least as 20%. Since the 2008 Financial Crisis, the debate of “financial bubbles and correct monetary policy” has been blown: Is macroeconomic stability possible in the country without financial stability? Is it required and possible to prevent a bubble formation and its growth? What should the Central Bank do? How should the monetary policy respond to the bubbles? The study is important due to its contribution to this debate. In this study, the financial bubbles that occurred quarterly in the period of 1990-2019 and in the three countries (in South Korea, Philippines, and Thailand) , which were amongst the countries at the core of the 1997 Asian crisis, are handled. They are essentially focused on the bubble bursts. It is the purpose to determine there is a connection between bubble burst cases and cumulative real cost, decrease in growth rate, or economic contraction. If there is a strong relation, to maintain macroeconomic stability in the markets, the government has to fulfill proactive (macroprudential) policies and has to intervene not only on bubble bursts, but also on bubble’s formation. However, some relations with only weak or middle degrees were reached.

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