Forecast the Gross Value Added in Construction Sector of Bulgaria with SARIMA Model
Forecast the Gross Value Added in Construction Sector of Bulgaria with SARIMA Model

Summary/Abstract: Construction is an important sector for national economies because it contributes with relatively high gross value added (GVA). The purpose of this study is to forecast GVA in a short-term period based on seasonal ARIMA models. Quarterly time series data from 2010 to 2020 are used for modelling and forecasting. Stationarity is achieved after differencing both - seasonal and non-seasonal component of the data. Based on autocorrelation plots SARIMA model is selected as most accurate. Ljung-Box test for the absence of autocorrelation confirms that the model is adequate and suitable to forecast. The current study is conducted as part of the research project BG05M2OP001-1.002-0002-C02 "Digitalization of Economy in a Big Data Environment".

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