A KORONAVÍRUS-JÁRVÁNY HATÁSA A KÖZEL-KELETI HELYZETRE
THE IMPACT OF THE CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC IN THE MIDDLE EAST

Author(s): Zsolt Rostoványi
Subject(s): International relations/trade
Published by: Scientia Kiadó
Keywords: coronavirus pandemic; Middle East; unemployment; poverty; International Monetary Fund;
Summary/Abstract: The coronavirus pandemic has deepened the multifaceted crisis that has been characterizing the Middle East for decades. The pandemic further exacerbated instability in the region as another destabilizing factor. The countries, which have found themselves in the most precarious situations, are those fragile, conflict-ridden states that have been engaged in armed clashes for years. The negative effects of the virus can be felt in many areas: problems of the healthcare systems, including their collapse in many places; declining global demand for goods and services in the region; decline in domestic supply and demand; a drastic fall in oil prices; growing unemployment due to mass redundancies; the increase in the number of people in need of humanitarian aid, which was already extremely high, estimated at 55-60 million people before the pandemic.The pandemic alone did not shake the power of political leaders; they even tried to use it to consolidate their power, to suppress opposition movements. The pandemic has further exacerbated the already markedly large income/wealth disparities, the inequalities in the Middle East. The number of people living below the poverty line has risen, even conservative estimates showing a growth of 15 million (other estimates show a growth of 45 million).The short- and medium-term outlooks for the region are extremely bleak, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) economic forecast projecting the most negative situation in fifty years, more severe than it was during the 2008 crisis. The decline of GDP is projected between 5 and 15%.The serious economic and social problems, which led to a wave of protests in many countries in the early 2010s and again at the end of the decade, have not been resolved but have become even more serious as a result of the coronavirus pandemic. With the end of the pandemic, a repeated outbreak of social tensions and a series of mass demonstrations are likely, posing a serious challenge to the political leaders in power, increasing instability throughout the region.

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