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The art of compromise: Ukraine and Russia agree on a gas transit deal

Author(s): Iryna Kosse / Language(s): English

This December was an important month for the European gas market. This is because the 10-year agreement between Russian Gazprom and Ukrainian Naftogaz to transport natural gas to Europe expires at the end of 2019. There was a high level of uncertainty on whether Ukraine and Russia would be able to reach a new deal without disrupting the gas supplies. Now there are very high chances that a new gas transit deal will be signed by December 29.

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CSD Policy Brief No. 70: A Roadmap for the Development of the Bulgarian Electricity Sector within the EU Until 2050.

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Based on data and modelling used by the European Commission, three scenarios for the decarbonisation of the Bulgarian electricity sector until 2050 have been developed. These scenarios provide the model framework for policy decision-making for Bulgaria in all energy domains. The results suggest the necessity for active policy-making on a number of sensitive energy issues, often linked to entrenched special interests.

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CSD Policy Brief No. 71: Assessing Russian Economic Footprint in Macedonia.

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Russia’s economic footprint in Macedonia has often been perceived as non-existent at best or very limited at worst. However, a detailed assessment of the Russian presence in the country reveals a more nuanced picture, in which many of the engagement channels are indirect, including through third parties and offshore companies. The revenues of Russian companies operating in Macedonia grew fourfold from EUR 63 million in 2006 to over EUR 212 million in 2015. // Much of the Russian investment in Macedonia is channeled via third countries including through offshore havens like Cyprus and Belize, obscuring the true extent of the economic footprint. Russia has also engendered the Macedonian energy dependence by controlling the single gas route to the country – via the TransBalkan Pipeline. Gazprom charges Macedonia one of the highest gas prices in Europe and has locked in the country in a costly expansion of the natural gas network. The current policy brief underlines that though the Russian economic footprint in Macedonia has been much less pronounced than in other Western Balkan countries, there is significant potential for future growth considering Russia’s project plans in the energy sector over the next decade. The authors also note that over the last two years, Russia has skillfully exploited Macedonia’s political instability, striving to undermine the country’s Trans-Atlantic ties.

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CSD Policy Brief No. 72: Assessing Russia's Economic Footprint in Serbia.

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

The Russian economic footprint has been deepening in some countries in the Western Balkans for at least a decade. In what is the most visible manifestation of this trend, Russian entities have gradually taken over the Serbian energy sector. Russian entities, directly or indirectly affect as much as 10 % of the economy. Notably, corporate presence measured by volume of revenues and assets controlled by Russian companies in Serbia is even larger than in Montenegro, where Russian foreign direct investments are a third of the country’s GDP. // There are two main interconnected factors in Russo-Serbian relations that have laid the foundations for Russia’s expanded power in the country. One is Russian support for Serbia’s non-recognition of Kosovo’s unilateral declaration of independence, and the second is a 2008 energy agreement that included Gazprom’s takeover of Serbia’s largest state-owned company, oil and gas firm Naftna Industrija Srbije (NIS). // The current policy brief notes that in addition to the corporate investments, Russia has used direct government-to-government loan schemes to enhance its presence in the Serbian economy. The authors also highlight that Russia has compounded its political ties with Serbia and its economic presence in the country by leveraging traditional pro-Russian, pan-Slavic, and pan-Orthodox attitudes via a series of soft power initiatives.

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CSD Policy Brief No. 73: Assessing Russia's Economic Footprint in Montenegro.

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

The last decade has seen a significant level of economic engagement by Russian companies and individuals in Montenegro. Vital economic ties have been sustained despite the fact that bilateral political relations worsened as this small Adriatic country stepped up its efforts to complete the NATO accession process. The deterioration of political relations between the two countries culminated in an alleged failed coup attempt in 2016 and the Russian backing of the opposition Democratic Front (DF) party. Even so, Russian investment flows never dropped below 10 % of total foreign direct investment (FDI). // The current policy brief underlines that Russia has exploited governance gaps to take advantage of lucrative privatization opportunities and to extract state subsidies in Montenegro. The authors also highlight that Russia has assertively tried to meddle in Montenegro’s domestic politics.

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CSD Policy Brief No. 74: Assessing Russia's Economic Footprint in Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Russia has been one of the key political players in Bosnia and Herzegovina since the Dayton Accords brought the 1992 – 1995 war to its end. According to the peace agreement, Bosnia and Herzegovina consists of two entities – the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (FBiH) and Republika Srpska (RS) with roughly equal territories – and the Brcko District. It is in RS, the entity with a Serb majority, that Russia has gained the most traction. Russia has particularly backed RS’s opposition to the Transatlantic integration of Bosnia and Herzegovina, as well as RS secession initiatives. Many regional observers feel that the secessionist aspirations of RS could potentially lead to a new regional conflict. // The current policy brief highlights that Bosnia and Herzegovina is completely dependent on Russian gas supplies. Russian companies also control the country’s two refineries, both located in Republika Srpska. Russia has consistently been the largest foreign investor in RS and the fourth largest in Bosnia and Herzegovina, with around EUR 547 million of foreign direct investment (FDI) in the country over the 2005 – 2016 period.

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Политически брифинг № 75 на CSD: ТЕНДЕНЦИИ И РИСКОВЕ ПРЕД ПАЗАРА НА тЮтЮНЕВИ ИЗДЕЛИЯ В БЪЛГАРИЯ

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): Bulgarian

The illicit tobacco market is one of the key sources of revenue for organized crime in Bulgaria. During the economic turmoil in 2009-2014 the annual proceeds from this criminal activity have reached between 0.5% and 1% of the country's GDP. At the same time the budget revenues from tobacco taxation (both excise and VAT) contribute for 9 and 10% per year of the overall tax revenues in Bulgaria. // The current report examines the development of the illicit tobacco market in Bulgaria through the prism of economic risks, the political environment in the country and the region, and recent changes in the involved criminal networks and the institutional capabilities for counteraction. The publication was prepared in the framework of the study "Illegal Trade in Tobacco Products and the Balkan Route: Overcoming Institutional Gaps and Corruption" and is funded by PMI-IMPACT, a global initiative to combat illegal trade and related crimes.

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CSD Policy Brief No. 97: The Chinese Economic Footprint in Central and Eastern Europe. Impact on Energy Transition and Climate.

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

In the past decade China has launched and promoted its first global infrastructure and economic development platform – the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). It seeks to link China with Europe and countries in Asia, Africa, Latin America and the Pacific. The BRI binds the countries along its way in large-scale China-financed infrastructure projects, which enhance China’s economic and political leverage. Around USD 14 billion in Chinese funds have entered the Central and Eastern European region in the form of grants, development loans, mergers and acquisition of domestic assets and concession agreements. To expand its economic influence in CEE, China has exploited a number of domestic governance deficits including lack of transparency of intergovernmental agreements, circumvention of national competition and public procurement law, and inconsistency with EU objectives. // The Policy Brief makes a comprehensive overview of the different patterns of Chinese economic influence. It measures the main indicators for the Chinese economic footprint in 12 CEE countries. The brief zooms in on the impact of Chinese investments on the overall quality of climate policies as well as provides targeted policy measures on countering the malign aspects of the Chinese economic presence.

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Политически брифинг № 101 на CSD: ценарии за възстановяване и постигане на въглероден неутралитет на България до 2050 г.

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): Bulgarian

The least costly way to decarbonize is to trans¬form the electricity supply mix. This would mean the fastest possible phase-out of lignite-fired power plants, a transformational shift in Bulgaria’s renewable energy sector, leveraging private investments in new technologies such as offshore wind and geothermal energy, and the accelerated electrification of buildings, industry and mobility. The uptake of low-carbon technologies requires the modernization of the power grid and more investments in sustainable mobility infrastructure. In addition, the successful delivery of the green transformation process necessitates adequate monitoring procedures and control mechanisms to measure the performance of the different policy measures and ensure their compliance with the rule of law. // This Policy Action Document proposes targeted sectoral policy measures to facilitate the implementation of three decarbonization pathways with a 2050 horizon. It also promotes the need for changes in public policies and the regulatory framework to accelerate the transition process. The document aims to contribute to the development of a consistent green recovery strategy for Bulgaria in line with the objectives of the European Green Deal.

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CSD Policy Brief No. 103: Capture Proofing the Energy Sector in Central and Eastern Europe: The Case of TurkStream.

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

TurkStream, construction of which was completed on 4 July 2021, will increase energy security risks in CEE and will divert scarce resources away from productive investment in energy diversification and green transition. Tellingly, Bulgaria, for example, commenced construction of the strategically important, yet decades in the making, interconnector with Greece (IGB) only after it started laying down TurkStream pipelines. As a result, TurkStream has already crowded out alternative LNG and Azeri gas supply from the regional gas market.

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CSD Policy Brief №. 108: EU Energy and Climate Security Strategy to Counter the Russian Aggression in Europe.

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

The Russian invasion in Ukraine and the resulting energy and geopolitical crisis have clearly demonstrated that accommodating Russia, even when its foreign policy undermines European security, is № longer defensible. The Russian aggression in Europe and the critical dependence on Russian oil and gas imports have clearly demonstrated the need for a new European energy and climate security strategy. European governments are №t only struggling to guarantee a reliable and cheap supply of energy but are also failing to overcome a fossil fuel lock-in. // The most effective way to stop the Kremlin’s aggression is for Europe to ban oil and gas imports from Russia that could cripple the Russian eco№my in 8 to 11 months. This needs to be accompanied by emergency measures to protect vulnerable consumers and alleviate Europe’s critical vulnerabilities before the next heating season. In the long run, a full fossil fuel phase-out is the most sustainable way to improve energy and climate security. Decarbonizing energy markets will also deliver a blow to the Kremlin’s eco№mic and political influence in Europe.

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Политически брифинг № 109 на CSD: СЦЕНАРИИ ЗА ТЕХНОЛОГИЧНИ И ПОЛИТИЧЕСКИ ИНОВАЦИИ ЗА ОСЪЩЕСТВЯВАНЕ НА ЕНЕРГИЙНИЯ ПРЕХОД В БЪЛГАРИЯ

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): Bulgarian

Bulgaria still lacks clearly defined long-term goals and a transparent framework for decision-making regarding the country’s energy and climate security policy. This increases the country’s economic vulnerability and undermines the feasibility of its transition towards carbon neutrality by 2050. The ongoing energy crisis exacerbated by the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine further raises the need for an updated energy and climate security strategy that would improve the country’s energy independence and diminish the role of fossil fuels for the local economy. // This analysis summarizes the policy implications for Bulgaria from the insights from two studies based on independent modelling showing the impact from the coal phase out and the lignite power replacement with renewable energy sources by 2030. The assessment also discusses the scenarios for the feasibility of the uptake of renewable energy, hydrogen and power storage technoogies by 2050.

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CSD Policy Brief №. 111: Europe Will Make Do Without Russian Oil.

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Europe can survive without Russian oil. The pushback against an EU-wide oil ban is not rooted in reality but in vested political and economic interests. There is sufficient alternative supply to keep the oil market running, while the logistical and pricing arguments against the embargo are exaggerated. A ban on Russian oil imports will deliver a critical blow to Kremlin’s war chest, as the sanctions will remove the Kremlin’s main source of tax revenues and the engine of the whole economy. // The following analysis reveals that the EU-wide ban on Russian oil imports would not undermine the European energy security but will able to significantly weaken the foundations of the Russian eco№mic and political power. It is also a historic opportunity for Europe to cut its malignant dependence not only on Russian fossil fuels but even more importantly on the domestic oligarchic networks that thrive on this relationship. Only in this way could an effective long-term European energy and climate security strategy emerge.

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Политически брифинг № 122 на CSD: ЕНЕРГИЙНА БЕДНОСТ И ДЕКАРБОНИЗАЦИЯ: ОЦЕНКА НА ВЪЗДЕЙСТВИЕТО НА ЦЕНАТА НА ВЪГЛЕРОДНИТЕ ЕМИСИИ В ЦЕНТРАЛНА ЕВРОПА

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): Bulgarian

The European Union is facing one of the most difficult energy and climate security crisis in its history. The surge in energy prices that began already before the Russian invasion in Ukraine has starkly revealed the need for a new global strategy for solving the energy policy trilemma of security of supply, affordability and sustainability, all the while minimizing geopolitical risks. The high fossil energy intensity of most European economies has been a key factor behind the rising energy poverty across the continent. Developing effective policy instruments to accelerate the decarbonisation of the European economy is therefore not only addressing climate security concerns, but will also preserve Europe’s economic competitiveness and social welfare. // Carbon pricing mechanisms could be such tools as they provide incentives to consumers to reduce energy consumption, diversify their energy mix away from fossil fuels and invest in renewable energy sources. A comprehensive analysis of the macro- and microeconomic effects of the introduction of a carbon price, developed in collaboration with partners from Germany, Romania, Hungary and Poland, shows that introducing a carbon price, at levels that would achieve a 40% reduction in emissions between 2022 and 2032, would have no significantly negative impact on the countries’ macroeconomic performance and would have the potential to improve overall social welfare, as long as tax revenues are redistributed back to the general population.

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CSD Policy Brief №. 127: At a Decarbonisation Crossroads. Assessing the Feasibility and Policy Pathways for Climate Neutrality in Bulgaria.

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

In the aftermath of the Russian invasion in Ukraine, the EU has raised its overall decarbonisation ambitions via the REPowerEU initiative. The EU has defined a new energy and climate security strategy that aims to decouple from the dependence on fossil fuel imports on the basis of accelerating renewable energy investments, boosting energy savings and diversifying and friendshoring the supply of energy and materials. Yet, amid the continuing political instability, Bulgaria has been reluctant to update its 2030 climate targets. The country can utilize the EU funds at its disposal to create the necessary investment environment for ushering a private sector and citizen-led switch to renewables en masse. Instead Bulgarian policy-makers remain focused on a few unnecessary large infrastructure projects and the preservation of coal, beyond agreed deadlines. Without an effective and transparent spending plan with long-term objectives and indicators for success, the transition could cause a popular backlash. // The current analysis aims to draw the key policy lessons from the introduction of the Pathways Explorer-based decarbonisation scenarios for Bulgaria into the report of the national Energy Transition Commission (ETC), the body that will form the basis for the country’s Climate Neutrality Roadmap by 2050 (also a milestone of the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP)).

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Политически брифинг № 132 на CSD: АЛТЕРНАТИВЕН ПРОФИЛ НА СПРАВЕДЛИВИЯ ПРЕХОД В ОБЛАСТ СТАРА ЗАГОРА

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): Bulgarian

Stara Zagora is the largest coal district in Bulgaria and its economy is highly dependent on fossil fuels. The bulk of the local industries are energy intensive and have been slow to take up low-carbon technological solutions. The district holds the potential to more than offset the lost revenue and jobs in the coal sector with new opportunities in industrial manufacturing, which shows the biggest growth potential over the past de­cade. Stepping on a comprehensive stakeholder consultations and survey, CSD’s current analysis zooms into the key socio-economic characteristics of the district, presenting an alternative perspective of the short- and long-term decarbonisation challenges and potential for economic transformation of Stara Zagora district.

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CSD Policy Brief №. 135: Making Sanctions Work in the European Energy Sector.

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

The energy crisis in Europe, exacerbated by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, has demonstrated the need for the EU to develop and implement a coherent policy vision for the di­versification of energy supply and the decarbonisation of its economy, in line with the changing economic security risks and priorities. Since the Russian invasion, the EU has adopted 10 rounds of sanctions including a ban on the import of coal, crude oil, and oil derivatives with the aim of undermining the capability of the Kremlin’s oligarchic networks to fuel its war machine in Ukraine and beyond. However, the current sanctions do not seem to achieve the longer-term objective of strategic decou­pling from Russia. This policy brief exposes the key loopholes that allow Russia to continue exporting energy, including oil, natural gas, coal, and nuclear fuel. The analysis reveals why and how the EU should strengthen sanctions enforcement and consider expanding the scope of sanctions. Decoupling from Russia would not be possible without also targeting the state capture networks that have enabled strategic partnerships between Russian and European energy companies.

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CSD Policy Brief №. 136: Moving Forward Together: Energy and Climate Security for Ukraine and Europe.

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Russia’s invasion in Ukraine has led to a heavy humanitarian crisis on the European continent. Targeted missile strikes have destroyed half of the country’s energy infrastructure, causing rolling blackouts and critical service disruptions in the region. The war has also been the biggest test to Europe’s energy and climate security, following more than a decade of excessive dependence on Russian fossil fuel imports. Guaranteeing the security of energy supply and supporting Ukraine’s resistance against the Russian aggression is of utmost priority for Europe in the short term. In the medium-to-long term, the full integration and policy alignment between the EU and Ukraine needs to be completed as a foundation for the country’s sustainable economic development. This policy brief provides an overview of the evolution of energy and climate security risks in Ukraine before and after the Russian invasion, stepping on the results from CSD’s Energy and Climate Security Risk Index. It discusses how the Kremlin exploited critical governance gaps in Ukraine and the EU’s energy sector to weaken Ukraine’s capacity for resistance and Europe’s solidarity and unity in the face of war. It further offers insights and ideas about the most pressing policy priorities in view of Ukraine’s future reconstruction.

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Политически брифинг № 137 на CSD: ЗАВИСИМОСТТА НА БЪЛГАРИЯ ОТ РУСКИ ПЕТРОЛ: ОТВЪД ДЕРОГАЦИЯТА

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): Bulgarian

The Bulgarian government should lift the derogation in EU Regulation (EU) № 833/2014, which allows Bulgaria to continue importing Russian crude oil until the end of 2024. Continuing the Russian monopoly power on the Bulgarian fuels market is by far the most critical risk to Bulgaria’s economic security. The Neftohim Burgas refinery, ultimately controlled by the Russian Lukoil, can operate efficiently without processing any Russian oil due to the ample availability of alternative crude oil grades within the Black Sea region, in addition to other sources in the Middle East and West Africa. This policy brief reviews possible scenarios for lifting the derogation. The worst-case scenario of a complete shutdown of the Neftohim refinery shows that any supply shock on the Bulgarian fuels market can be prevented with proper management of current reserves and the import infrastructure, which is now under Russian monopolistic control. The shutdown of the refinery can and must be avoided. The government should request a specific timeline and investment commitments from Lukoil for implementing the EU oil embargo, with full readiness at least 12 months before the current end date of the derogation, verified by an external audit from the Agency for State Financial Inspection. №n-compliance from Lukoil should trigger more robust measures such as putting Lukoil’s assets under state control.

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CSD Policy Brief №. 140: Sanctions Evasion and Derogation on Russian Oil

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

The Russian invasion in Ukraine has demonstrated the need for the EU to develop and implement a coherent policy vision for economic security. However, the current sanctions will not be able to achieve the longer-term objective of strategic decoupling from Russia, as they are designed to allow Russia to continue exporting energy. The oil embargo on Russia presents a critical challenge for European and US authorities seeking to curtail Russian crude and oil product exports. While the sanctions are designed to restrict these exports, several factors are hindering their effective implementation, leaving room for evasion. There is an urgent need to strengthen the implementation and enforcement of the oil sanctions to ensure that crude oil and fuel products are not delivered to customers by Russia-linked third parties such as newly registered oil trading companies with unclear ultimate beneficial ownership and existing global commodity traders exploiting loopholes that mask the origin of their oil and oil products. The following analysis is based on a joint investigation between CSD, Global Witness and the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, which highlight key issues related to sanctions evasion and the strategic decoupling from Russian oil, with a particular focus on the case of Lukoil. It lays out some targeted policy strategies for closing the governance gaps allowing Russia to continue earning billions in profits from selling energy across the world and financing the war in Ukraine.

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