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Freeze the Grexit: Germany and the Latest Escalation of Eurozone Crisis

Author(s): Sebastian Płóciennik / Language(s): English

A Greek exit from the eurozone is an unfavourable scenario for Germany. It would threaten not only German debt and economic interests but also its political leadership in the European Union, which Berlin has developed in recent years. The safest option is a continuation of support for Greece: strong enough to not bankrupt it, and modest enough not to strengthen the Syriza government.

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TTIP and Third Countries: Making It More Transatlantic

Author(s): Marek Wąsiński / Language(s): English

Third countries worry that, if the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) is agreed, it can have a serious negative impact, in particular decreasing their trade with the European Union and the United States. It will affect not only developing countries, but Western nations too. Concerns of partners of the U.S. and EU could be tackled by giving them an opportunity to join the agreement.

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TTIP a kraje trzecie: kto obawia się umowy transatlantyckiej

Author(s): Marek Wąsiński / Language(s): Polish

Kraje trzecie obawiają się, że Transatlantyckie Partnerstwo na rzecz Handlu i Inwestycji (TTIP) może mieć negatywne skutki, w szczególności ograniczyć ich wymianę handlową z Unią Europejską i Stanami Zjednoczonymi. Dotyczy to nie tylko krajów BRICS, lecz także bliskich sojuszników Zachodu. Obawy partnerów Unii i USA można jednak zmniejszyć przez wprowadzenie możliwości przystąpienia do umowy państw trzecich.

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Skup obligacji rządowych przez EBC – lepiej późno niż wcale

Author(s): Patryk Toporowski / Language(s): Polish

W marcu br. Europejski Bank Centralny rozpoczął półtoraroczny skup obligacji rządowych z rynku wtórnego, zwany obiegowo poluzowaniem ilościowym. Program taki, zastosowany już przez USA, Wielką Brytanię i Japonię, ma na celu ożywienie gospodarki. W UE został jednak uruchomiony zbyt późno, więc jego efekty do końca 2016 r. będą ograniczone. Dla Polski oznacza on wzmocnienie złotego względem euro oraz zmniejszenie oprocentowania krajowego długu.

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Corporate Cultural Responsibility and the Promotion of Polish Business Abroad

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

Culture can be a powerful marketing and branding tool for corporations and states alike. As Polish companies strengthen the Corporate Social Responsibility model while competing on global markets, they should also pay special attention to supporting culture. The stronger engagement of business in cultural diplomacy would bring extra resources and create a synergy between the efforts of the private and public sectors to build Poland as a positive brand. To facilitate this cooperation, the government can create new mechanisms and regulations that will attract greater business involvement in such promotion.

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Wsparcie kultury a promocja polskiego biznesu za granicą

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): Polish

Kultura może być znakomitym narzędziem marketingowym i wizerunkowym nie tylko dla państw, lecz także dla firm. Polskie przedsiębiorstwa, rozwijając model społecznej odpowiedzialności biznesu, powinny zwracać szczególną uwagę na wspieranie kultury i promocję kulturalną kraju za granicą. Dzięki temu będą mogły zbudować pozytywny wizerunek własny i wzmocnić markę Polski. Aby bardziej zaangażować biznes w zadania dyplomacji kulturalnej i wykorzystać efekt synergii sektora prywatnego i publicznego, rząd mógłby stworzyć nowe mechanizmy i regulacje ułatwiające tę współpracę.

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A Post-Pandemic Budget: The New Multiannual Financial Framework 2021–2027

Author(s): Melchior Szczepanik / Language(s): English

The European Commission (EC) wants to issue bonds to finance the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic without reducing the budgets of existing common policies. The axis of the larger EU budget will be the implementation of two key projects launched before the pandemic: the green and digital transitions. The Commission proposal has elements that are attractive for both sides of the debate about the EU budget and it is, therefore, likely that the final outcome of the negotiations will not be much different.

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Budżet po pandemii – nowe wieloletnie ramy finansowe UE 2021–2027

Author(s): Melchior Szczepanik / Language(s): Polish

Komisja Europejska chce wyemitować obligacje, by sfinansować program walki z recesją wywołaną przez pandemię bez konieczności redukowania nakładów na polityki wspólnotowe. Osią powiększonego budżetu Unii jest realizacja celów dwóch głównych projektów Komisji, przyjętych jeszcze przed wybuchem pandemii – zielonej i cyfrowej transformacji. Propozycja KE zawiera atrakcyjne elementy dla każdej ze stron debaty o budżecie UE i można przypuszczać, że ostateczny kompromis nie będzie znacząco od niej odbiegał.

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Sanctions on Russian Oil Exports Require Further Refining

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel,Zuzanna Nowak / Language(s): English

Western and other states’ restriction of imports of Russian oil and sanctions on its oil trade had little impact on Russia’s budget revenues in 2022. This was because Russia found new customers for its crude, mainly in Asia. The effects of the restrictions only started to become apparent from the beginning of this year, but without a further, significant reduction in this source of income, Russia’s ability to fund its aggression against Ukraine will not be weakened. The best way to increase the effectiveness of the sanctions would be to further reduce the price ceiling on Russian oil and take steps to increase the oil supply on the global market from alternative sources.

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Business and Consumer Protection Must Evolve after Europe’s Energy Crisis

Author(s): Piotr Dzierżanowski,Zuzanna Nowak / Language(s): English

The energy crisis has hit businesses and consumers in the EU hard. Member States took remedial action and the European Commission implemented solutions at the Community level. The EU managed to avoid economic collapse and maintain the stability needed to support Ukraine and to face Russia. Further countermeasures will need to be taken this summer to avoid another energy crisis in the winter of 2023- 2024.

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Developing Countries on the Brink of a Debt Crisis

Author(s): Piotr Dzierżanowski / Language(s): English

The end of expansionary monetary policies in developed countries, the decline in financing from China, and the economic turbulence resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s aggression against Ukraine increase the risk of a major international debt crisis for developing countries. Such crises tend to spill over and the number of defaulting countries increases. While the threat of the destabilisation of the economies of developed countries remains low, the states may be affected by the consequences of the crisis, such as increased migration pressures.

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China Tempting EU Members and the Effect on Transatlantic Relations

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

China seeks to maintain differences within the EU, particularly regarding transatlantic cooperation towards China. Some EU countries and institutions do not perceive China as a threat and look cautiously at the reduction of economic ties with it. Others regard transatlantic cooperation, including vis-à-vis China, as an important element in strengthening European security. These differing approaches limit the ability of the EU and the U.S. to interact in areas related both to Sino-Russian cooperation and China’s escalation in the Indo-Pacific.

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The EU’s Global Gateway Strategy: Opportunities and Challenges

Author(s): Elżbieta Kaca / Language(s): English

The Global Gateway (GG) strategy aims to increase the EU’s infrastructure connections on a global scale. The strategy might lead to improving the Union’s image, for example, in its immediate vicinity, and increasing the participation of Member State entities in the implementation of EU projects. The challenge is how to effectively coordinate the strategy amongst EU institutions and get private sector cooperation. For Poland, it will be important to accelerate investments in the Eastern Partnership (EaP) region and to diversify transport corridors from the EU to China.

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A struggle to survive. Ukraine’s economy in wartime

Author(s): Sławomir Matuszak / Language(s): English

The ongoing war in Ukraine has had a disastrous impact on the country’s economy. Its GDP has fallen by approximately a third, and material losses due to the destruction of infrastructure have exceeded US$100 billion and are rising every day. The high inflation rate, the weakened currency and the very high unemployment rate are taking an increasing toll on Ukrainian society. The functioning of the country, including the disbursement of social benefits, salaries and pensions, depends almost entirely on foreign financial assistance. Even though international support for Ukraine has been growing, it remains insufficient, which has forced the government to radically increase public debt. Despite the observed positive trends, such as increased exports (in particular agricultural goods) and the stabilised fuels market, no substantial improvement in the economic situation should be expected before the end of the war. In fact, it seems more likely that it will deteriorate further, given that Russia will most likely continue its attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure, and the future of maritime food exports is open to question.

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A Technological Arms Race: Chip Manufacturing

Author(s): Oskar Szydłowski / Language(s): English

The supply gap in the chip market caused by the COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the chips’ growing role in the global economy, as well as in international relations. Countries where chipmakers are headquartered are restricting exports of this good, and the competition for access to these products has opened a new phase in the technology race between China and the U.S. Currently, the U.S. is emerging victorious, significantly limiting China’s ability to modernise. The European Union plans to cooperate with Taiwan and the U.S. on chip supplies and is working on production technology.

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№131: EU Tackles Changes in Global Economic Competition

Author(s): Melchior Szczepanik / Language(s): English

Shaken by the experience of the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s full-scale aggression against Ukraine, the EU has adopted a series of legal acts to reduce dependence on authoritarian powers, create new instruments to defend against unfair competition, and facilitate the modernisation of the industrial sector. The smooth implementation of the green and digital transitions will be crucial to the success of these measures, but it requires additional financial resources. Furthermore, the drive to increase self-sufficiency in strategic sectors and build a low-carbon, sustainable economy is difficult to reconcile with a liberal approach focused on deregulation and short-term profit maximisation.

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№133: Options for Securing Free Trade Navigation in the Black Sea

Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski,Daniel Szeligowski / Language(s): English

Russia’s withdrawal from the grain deal poses again the risk of destabilising the global food market. However, it is a reflection of a much larger problem represented by the Russian year-and-a-half-long blockade of the Black Sea, which has allowed it to gradually weaken Ukraine and drive up the cost of providing it with assistance from foreign partners. The international community should not pursue reactivation of the grain deal, which granted Russia de facto control of Ukrainian exports, and instead, the common objective should be to finally break the Russian blockade and effectively secure maritime trade across the Black Sea to Ukrainian ports.

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№196: “Decoupling” in Chinese: Challenges for China’s Economy

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

In the long-term economic development plans adopted in March this year, the Chinese authorities emphasised the need to expand China’s internal potential to reduce its interdependence on the U.S. and other partners - a decoupling. However, they tend to take a conservative approach to challenges related to indebtedness, lack of innovation, consumption, and demographic changes. Instead of proposing market reforms, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is systematically increasing its control over the economy. In foreign cooperation, they find it important to maintain the level of exports in the context of China’s share in global value chains, as well as to acquire technology. For the EU, this means the necessity to implement new market-protection mechanisms, and in the longer term transfer production from China to the EU.

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G7 Summit in Germany - Support for Ukraine and Combating the Global Effects of Russia’s Aggression

Author(s): Damian Wnukowski / Language(s): English

On 26-28 June, a meeting of the leaders of the G7 countries took place at Elmau Castle in Bavaria. The key topics were the war in Ukraine and the resulting energy and food crisis. The summit showed the group’s consistency with regard to Russia’s aggression and global challenges, although some of the decisions made are not very ambitious. It will be important for the long-term effectiveness of the G7 to involve partners from other parts of the world, including developing countries, which is one reason for the guest participation in the meeting of the leaders of Argentina, India, Indonesia, South Africa, and Senegal.

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Deal Signed to Unblock Ukrainian Grain Exports

Author(s): Daniel Szeligowski / Language(s): English

At the initiative of the UN Secretary-General, the countries of Ukraine, Russia, and Türkiye reached an agreement on 22 July to unblock grain exports from Ukrainian Black Sea ports. However, the resumption of trade is not a foregone conclusion and will depend primarily on the goodwill of the Russian side, which may sabotage the implementation of the agreement by military means.

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