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Working Paper: A Revanchist Russia versus an Uncertain West: An Appreciation of the Situation since the 2014 Ukrainian Crisis

Author(s): Brian Jenkins / Language(s): English

An aggressive Russia, a divided and unsettled Europe, and a distracted and unpredictable United States have created an unprecedented and perilous confluence of events that could undermine the European security architecture and the liberal-democratic order. Ultimately, it is conceivable that the Western allies and Russia could achieve through dialogue some kind of constructive modus vivendi whereby Russia becomes a less paranoid power that respects the independence of its former empire. A long shot to begin with, such a rapprochement is less achievable if Europe and the United States appear disorganized and vulnerable.

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Democracy that Delivers: Unlocking the Potential of Transition

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

This publication contains the materials from an international conference, “Democracy that Delivers”, held on May 21, 2008, in Sofia. The construction of democracy has never been an easy undertaking. The constant trade-offs between openness and security, oversight and efficiency, between pluralism and the need for consensus on strategic reforms make sure that democracy is never taken for granted. Its advancement becomes all the more difficult when– in times of transition from repressive regimes – it is associated with great expectations that have to be met within short periods of time. The massive transformation from authoritarian regimes to open access societies that was prompted by the fall of communism required the unbundling of the concept of democracy. Reforms had to be sequenced, the provisions of public goods prioritized, the need for various institutions demonstrated. Post-communist transition became a giant laboratory for the engineering of democratic governance.

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Етнорелигиозният мир в Югоизточна Европа – предпоставка за обезпечаване на енергийната сигурност и за повишаване на енергийната свързаност на региона

Author(s): Ivelina Dimitrova Dimitrova / Language(s): English,Bulgarian Publication Year: 0

The region of South Eastern Europe has long history dating back in the past of numerous armed conflicts provoked by ethnic and religious intolerance. The unstable ethno-religious situation was the legacy left after the dissolution of the Ottoman Empire – a long process which started in the 19th century and officially ended in 1922. Another crucial moment that brought much instability to the region and especially to the Western Balkans was the breakup of Yugoslavia in 1992 and the Yugoslav wars that came as an aftermath. Today the region is a more peaceful place due to the fact that all the countries initiated their European integration. Important factors for the stabilization of the situation are also the improvement of the economic stability and the energy integration between the countries from the region. The economic and energy interdependence is the most solid guarantee that the conflicts from the past will not repeat themselves.

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«SVJETSKI RAT I HRVATI», DR. FRANJO TUĐMAN O PILAROVU PROMIŠLJANJU HRVATSKE POLITIKE U UVJETIMA PRVOGA SVJETSKOG RATA (1915.)

Author(s): Zlatko Matijević / Language(s): Croatian Publication Year: 0

Ivo Pilar, Ph. D., (1874-1933), attorney-at-law, completed his brochure The World War and the Croats (Svjetski rat i Hrvati) in March 1915. It was published in Zagreb that same year. Knowing that the authorities of the Austro-Hungarian Monarchy would not be pleased with some of his theses, Pilar published the brochure under the pseudonym Dr. Juričić. The author’s fears of a possible negative reaction to his geopolitical ideas were not ungrounded, since the state’s censor abridged Pilar’s original text thoroughly before he allowed it to be published. The second edition of Pilar’s brochure, containing many sentences that had been censored out of the first edition, most of them pertaining to the Central Forces’ unfaithful ally Italy, was published two years later. In his analysis of the political situation at the beginning of World War I, Pilar concluded that the times were fateful for the Croatian people, since the outcome of the war was going to decide with which country the Croatian territories would side in the long run. Tuđman felt that Pilar’s views were a reflection of the ideas of all the factions in Croatian politics that sought to solve the Croatian national question within the confines of the Austro-Hungarian Monarchy and within the Central European geopolitical territory. Even though Pilar’s basic hypothesis had proved wrong (he assumed Germany and Austro-Hungarian Monarchy would win World War I), some of his ideas, particularly the ideas about the geopolitical position of Croatian territories and their historical fate, still hold their original value.

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Rusko v české zahraniční politice

Author(s): Petra Kuchyňková / Language(s): Czech Publication Year: 0

Českou zahraniční politiku ve vztahu k Rusku v roce 2014 přirozeně poznamenaly především události ve východní Evropě, jejichž významným účastníkem Rusko bylo. Tyto události byly přímým pokračováním dění na Ukrajině postupně gradujícího na podzim a v zimě 2013. A tak zatímco na počátku roku 2014 ještě čeští političtí představitelé ve vztahu k Putinově Rusku řešili na pozadí dramatizující se ukrajinské krize otázku, zda se účastnit olympijských her v Soči, minimálně od února 2014 bylo jasné, že budou muset ve vztahu k RF zaujímat postoje v daleko závažnějších otáz-kách a že vztahy Ruska a té části světa, jejíž součástí se ČR cítila již téměř 25 let být, se postupně dostanou do největší krize od dob skončení studené války. V české za-hraniční politice vůči Rusku se tak v průběhu roku 2014 postupně promítaly nejzávažnější události: na jaře to byla anexe Krymské autonomní republiky ze strany RF a dále postupný prudký nárůst napětí a násilí na východní a jihovýchodní Ukrajině a otázka ruského angažmá v celé situaci. Ačkoli do této události nebyla přímo zaan-gažována, dotkl se jí (podobně jako zbytku světa) i moment, kdy konflikt na Ukrajině vstoupil do povědomí veřejnosti řady států, i těch, které do situace nebyly zainteresovány prakticky vůbec: tragédie letu MH17.

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Balkánský rozměr české zahraniční politiky

Author(s): Tomáš Dopita / Language(s): Czech Publication Year: 0

Balkán má v české zahraniční politice specifické postavení. V devadesátých letech se Česká republika aktivně zapojila do procesu bezpečnostní stabilizace v oblasti bývalé Jugoslávie, zejména prostřednictvím NATO. Později začala být pozornost věnována politické a hospodářské stabilizaci tohoto prostoru. Po konferenci EU se zeměmi západního Balkánu v Soluni v roce 2003 začal být proces stabilizace balkánského regionu v české zahraniční politice explicitně spojován s integrací jednotlivých zemí do EU a NATO. Také v Koncepci zahraniční politiky (dále jako Koncepce) schválené v červenci 2011 je integrace zemí západního Balkánu do EU a NATO označena za dlouhodobou zahraničněpolitickou prioritu ČR. Balkán však nebyl nikterak zmíněn v programových prohlášeních vlád Mirka Topolánka v roce 2006 a 2007, ani v prohlášeních úřednických vlád Jana Fišera v roce 2009 a Jiřího Rusnoka v roce 2013. Bezpečnostní, politická a hospodářská stabilizace Balkánu prostřednictvím integrace jednotlivých zemí do EU a NATO tedy představuje dlouhodobou, ale nikoli naprosto zásadní prioritu české zahraniční politiky.

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Rusko v české zahraniční politice

Author(s): Lukáš Tichý / Language(s): Czech Publication Year: 0

Česká zahraniční politika ve vztahu k Ruské federaci (RF) byla v roce 2016, stejně jako o rok předtím v roce 2015, ovlivněna především napjatou geopolitickou situací mezi Ruskou federací a západními státy a nevyřešeným konfliktem na východě Ukrajiny, ve kterém se Rusko od počátku vojensky angažuje. Vzhledem k tomu, že se ne-podařilo zastavit boje na východní Ukrajině a po celý rok 2016 docházelo z obou stran k opakovanému porušování minských dohod, které mají vést k vyřešení zostřené situace na východě země, a na jejichž dodržování a plnění jsou vázány unijní sankce uvalené na Rusko, rozhodla se Evropská unie (EU) prodloužit protiruské sankce. V porovnání s předchozím rokem 2015 pak vyvolala otázka prodloužení sankcí v České republice v roce 2016 daleko intenzivnější politickou debatu. Dalším faktorem ovlivňujícím českou zahraničněpolitickou debatu o Rusku byla jednak pokračující vojenská podpora vládnoucímu režimu Bašára Asada v Sýrii, za kterou RF čelila opakovaně mezinárodní kritice, a zároveň hrozba „hybridní“ angažovanosti Ruské federace v Pobaltí společně s údajnou kybernetickou aktivitou a dezinformační kampaní v zemích střední a východní Evropy.

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Rusko v české zahraniční politice

Author(s): Lukáš Tichý,Nikita Odintsov / Language(s): Czech Publication Year: 0

Česká zahraniční politika ve vztahu k Ruské federaci (RF) byla v roce 2015, stejně jako o rok předtím v roce 2014, nadále ovlivněna napjatou geopolitickou situací mezi Ruskou federací a západními státy a nevyřešeným konfliktem na Ukrajině. Po eskalaci bojů na počátku roku 2015 došlo 12. února v Minsku k uzavření nových dohod, které měly doplnit minský protokol ze září roku 2014. Tyto dohody představovaly plán, jenž měl ke konci roku 2015 vést k vyřešení ozbrojeného konfliktu na východě země. Nicméně ke konci roku 2015 byl pokrok minimální. Sankce uvalené na Rusko, jejichž osud je pevně spojen s plněním dohod, byly tak prodlouženy, což ovšem v České republice nevyvolávalo takové debaty, jak tomu bylo v předcházejícím roce.

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German Energy Policy – New Challenges in Times of War

Author(s): Knut Abraham / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

The European citizen expect from the German economy to become a proof of concept for the real energy transformation process, migrating from fossil power generation and nuclear power plants to a carbon neutral energy industry. By the utilization of the vision for the Green Deal in Europe – ending nuclear, coal and gas energy use simultaneously is an ambitious approach. It is nevertheless the obligation of the decision makers to preserve our planet and solve the imminent threat posed by climate change. Germany’s new government imperatively has to find answers on how to secure supply, limit the economic impact of this transition and diversify our energy sources throughout Europe. Tendencies – especially among the currently governing party, the Greens – to reject certain options out of pure ideology must be overcome in order to find the best solutions. The following overview is focused on the critical processes in the German economic model related to the post-COVID and Ukraine crisis and the response needed to remain on course towards the green transition.

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Space Geopolitics in 2022

Author(s): Boris Manov / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

Ever since the dawn of men, there has been a captivation with distant stars and the blue sky. The ideological competition between the two superpowers, the Soviet Union and the United States leads to remarkable discoveries and extraordinary accomplishments in outer space. The culmination of this contest was humanity’s first step on the Moon and the widely accepted American victory against the Soviet Union in the first Space Race. Fifty-three years later, the fascinating nature of outer space still prevails with new participants looking to make their mark and an old competitive nature still driving human progress. The geopolitics of space since the beginning of 2022, have had alternating dynamics, due to various factors, perhaps leading to significant vicissitudes in the balance of power.

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The Power BRICS Geopolitical Game

Author(s): Karim Naama / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

The world changes rapidly due to discoveries and innovations in the field of technology. The interests of the BRICS countries and their common goals intersect to move towards new global economy and to lay the foundations of a multipolar international system. In order to accomplish such a goal, the BRICS group faces the challenge of conducting organizational activities. The significance of the ‘five’ countries in the world economy increases with their joint efforts as a geopolitical group. The economic success of the five states ensures their active role in the UN, IMF, WB, WTO. The present study aims at demonstrating how the historical geopolitical change takes place highlighting its real and objective reasons related both to the development of the world economy and the alteration in the structure and fundamentals of international relations in the 21st century with the emergence of new political economic organizations and alliances.

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Reforma systemu celnego Unii Europejskiej

Author(s): Grzegorz Mazur / Language(s): Polish Publication Year: 0

In May 2023 the European Commission presented the legislative package of the reforms of the EU customs code. The Commission’s proposal, responding to current challenges in the global trading system, has been the most ambitious reform in the EU customs union’s history since its beginning. The general purpose of the chapter is to identify the main changes to the EU’s customs code resulting from the reforming package. The analysis is based on the texts of legislative proposals prepared by the European Commission that yet must be adopted within the EU’s legislative process. The conducted analysis reveals that the reforming package includes new instruments and solutions that would transform the Union Customs Code to a more digital, integrated and efficient system. The presented proposals include among others the creation of the EU Customs Data Hub and the EU Customs Authority that will create the institutional and operational framework of the renewed EU’s customs system. The proposed legislation provides also for new regulations referring to e-commerce, including the new status of ‘deemed importer’ and modified treatment of goods ordered online from outside the European Union. The UCC reform is also part of a strategic shift within the EU’s Common Commercial Policy towards a more open, sustainable, and assertive trade policy.

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THE POST-YUGOSLAV BALKANS IN THE IDEOLOGICAL WAR BETWEEN RUSSIA AND NATO

Author(s): Darina Grigorova / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

The paper is focused on the ideological frame of Russian Post-Soviet Foreign Policy in the Balkans. Is there any Russian soft power? In a short introduction, the main ideological and geopolitical tendencies in the presentday Balkans are outlined. In the first part of the paper, we describe the geopolitical reality of the Balkans today and Russian positions in it. In the second and the third part of the paper, we analyze the content and the transformation of the Russian idea/concept ‘Russkiy mir’ and geopolitical, ideological and spiritual consequences of that transformation. The fourth part of the paper describes the current state of relations between NATO and Serbia 20 years after the bombing of the FR Yugoslavia in the context of the geopolitical competition of old and new factors in world politics. The conclusion highlights the main geopolitical and spiritual challenges of some Balkan Orthodox peoples and the possible role of Russia in the Balkans.

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Russia’s Role in the Provision of Sustainable Energy Security in South Eastern Europe

Author(s): Igor Tomberg,Pavel K. Baev,András Deák,Konstantin Michajlovič Simonov,Milan Simurdić,Zorana Z. Mihajlović Milanović,Anatoly Pomorcev / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

2009 – the crisis year – brought about crucial changes in the established and seemingly successful picture of the oil market. The New Year “gas war” between Russia and Ukraine consolidated bad tradition, demonstrating the vulnerability of the present structure of the oil and gas market once again. There were no winners, everyone suffered: the supplier, the transporter and the consumers. Conclusions and assessments of the conflict, and its consequences, are, generally, diametrically opposed. This was reflected in the subsequent actions and statements of the players in the market. It seems generally considered that on the ‘gas front’ Russia is leading a war “against all”. This confrontation is not new; but if earlier it could be considered as “debatable”, now resentment towards the actions and positions of Moscow are reaching a kind of hysteria. Such a political context, alongside some recent events, certainly has an influence on the future of the energy security in Europe, especially considering dramatic changes in the oil and gas markets.

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Yugoslavia and the Non-Aligned Movement

Author(s): Dragan Bogetić / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

I will make an attempt to briefly present the key determinants and content guidelines of the Yugoslavian non-aligned policy, but also to indirectly indicate the contact points and differences between this policy and the concept of neutrality itself. After a period of uncritical glorification, followed also by euphoric satanization of the non-aligned concept, finally the time has come, based on relevant archive material, to provide real answers, at least to some elementary questions in this field. Some of them are: if this policy was in fact desired or forced; how difficult was it to prompt sometimes unwilling partners who were not belonging to neither of political-military blocks to cooperate, and finally, why Yugoslavia distanced itself from Europe and connected to far away and unknown civilizations.

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РЕГУЛИРАНЕ МЕЖДУНАРОДНО-ПРАВНИЯ СТАТУТ НА КАСПИЙСКО МОРЕ КАТО ЧАСТ ОТ ВЕЛИКИЯ ПЪТ НА КОПРИНАТА

Author(s): Boyko Georgiev Cherkovaliev / Language(s): Bulgarian Publication Year: 0

The New Silk Road Initiative was first presented in 2013 by the Prime Minister of the People's Republic of China, Xi Jinping. The concept is based on the creation of infrastructure to connect Asia with Europe and Africa. The possible routes of the Road go around the Caspian Sea basin. The emergence of new states after 1991 has changed the nature of the established international agreements on the status of the sea-lake. For more than 20 years, the coastal states have not been able to agree, but: Let us be optimistic that the Caspian countries: Russia, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan and Iran have approached wisely and invested in a productive idea - reaching a decision in the spring of 2018, in the city of Astana to sign a Convention on the International Legal Status of the Caspian Sea.

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Financial and Credit Support of Sustainable Development of Agriculture in Ukraine: Problems and Ways to Solve Them

Author(s): Lubov Moldavan,Olena Pimenowa,Igor Britchenko / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

The paper studies financial and credit support mechanisms necessary for sustainable development of agriculture in Ukraine, with a focus on addressing the challenges faced by small and medium-sized agricultural producers. The study emphasizes the unique economic characteristics of agricultural sector, which make it highly dependent on external financing due to factors such as price volatility, climatic variability and the high cost of production inputs. Given these challenges, the aim of the article is to analyze the institutional and legal framework of financial and credit systems in Ukraine and to propose approaches for enhancing access to credit for small and medium-sized farms, drawing on successful experience of developed countries. The authors hypothesize that the financial sustainability and growth of small and medium-sized agricultural producers in Ukraine can be significantly improved through the establishment of cooperative financial institutions and targeted state support programs. The study uses a combination of methods, including monographic analysis to explore the role of state support of agriculture in both Ukraine and developed countries, comparative analysis to high-light differences in credit service structures between Ukraine and countries such as United States and European Union members and empirical methods to assess social and environmental benefits of establishing a specialized credit system for agriculture. The study also utilizes abstract-logical methods to synthesize findings and formulate recommendations for the development of Ukraine's financial and credit institutions. The results of the study reveal significant gaps in Ukraine's current financial infrastructure of agriculture, particularly the lack of specialized financial institutions capable to meet the needs of small and medium-sized farms. An analysis of the practice of commercial bank lending in Ukraine shows that these institutions are interested in working only with those who use 500 or more hectares of agricultural land. The article identifies cooperative banking systems in countries like France, the United States and Poland as models that could be adapted for Ukraine. The study concludes that the establishment of cooperative financial institutions, supported by legislative and regulatory reforms, is essential for fostering the sustainable development of agriculture in Ukraine. Additionally, state support is critical to ensure the financial viability of small and medium-sized farms, which contribute significantly to agricultural output but are often excluded from traditional credit markets. Authors recommend the introduction of targeted state programs, the restructuring of existing financial institutions and the creation of legal frameworks that would enable the formation of cooperative banks and credit unions tailored to the agricultural sector. Such measures would improve credit access, enhance the profitability of agricultural enterprises and promote rural economic development.

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ECOWAS – от оръжие на глобалистите до борец срещу неоколониализма и за националната държава

Author(s): Georgi Kyuchukov / Language(s): Bulgarian Publication Year: 0

ECOWAS is an economic organization of Western African countries. It was created with the help of the former colonial states (France, the United Kingdom and Portugal) with main aim to coordinated economics and utilization of the rich natural resources of the region. During the years the organization evolved from extremely economic into political and military one. There is a marked tendency for breaking links with the former colonial states and reverse toward some of the new global powers.

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За дигиталното евро и бъдещето на валутите

Author(s): Irena Nikolova / Language(s): Bulgarian Publication Year: 0

Technology develops fast in the recent years, especially after the Covid pandemic. That has affected all the economic sectors and at the same the future of currencies is discussed and analyzed as well. The purpose of the paper is to present the digital euro in terms of the digitalization of financial operations and the role of the central banks as well as to discuss its opportunities and challenges.

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Efects of Trade Wars on Global Financial Markets

Author(s): Dimitar Nikolov / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

This report examines the impacts of the U.S.-China trade war on global financial markets and economies. Beginning in 2018, the trade conflict between the world’s two largest economies led to a series of tariffs and restrictions on goods, disrupting international trade flows and increasing uncertainty. The report explores how the tariffs affected the economies of the U.S. and China individually, with significant consequences for industries, consumers, and currency stability in each country. It also addresses the wider global implications, including shifts in supply chains, increased volatility in financial markets, and emerging trade alliances.

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