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Security Risks and Transformation - Euroatlantic and Regional Perspectives

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

This publication summarizes the discussions at the International Security Conference held in November 19-20, 2005 in Sofia, Bulgaria. The conference discussions benefited from the participation of the Bulgarian Prime Minister Sergey Stanishev, Supreme Allied Commander Europe General James Jones, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Bulgaria Ivailo Kalfin, Minister of Defense Vesselin Bliznakov, Minister of the Interior Rumen Petkov, senior oficials from Southeast Europe (SEE), Russia, Ukraine, USA and West European countries, representatives of international organizations and aid agencies, diplomatic missions, academic institutions and non-governmental organizations.

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Izbor - Kosmet, 2008 / 03 / 14

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): Serbian

DA LI POSTOJI PROJEKAT ZA DESTABILIZACIJU BALKANA? (Fadil Lepaja / Lajm - Priština) NA KOSOVU NEMA MESTA ZA DVE DRŽAVE (Zëri – Priština) GEOPOLITIČKA GLEDIŠTA POVODOM NEZAVISNOSTI (Gentjan Kapllani / Kosova sot – Priština) NAJKRITIČNIJE NEDELJE DRŽAVE KOSOVO (Zëri - Priština) “GRANICE KOSOVA SU JASNO ODREĐENE” (Metropol - Tirana) TERITORIJALNI INTEGRITET I USTAV (Infopress - Priština) BEZBEDNOST KAO VRHUNSKA VREDNOST NA KOSOVU (Zëri - Priština) KOSOVU NIJE POTREBAN EULEKS, VEĆ ISTINA (Koha ditore - Priština) GEOPOLITIČKA GLEDIŠTA POVODOM NEZA VISNOSTI (Kosova sot - Priština) STARE STRATEGIJE NEKIH BALKANSKIH DRŽAVA (Bota sot - Priština) DA LI POSTOJI PROJEKAT ZA DESTABILIZACIJU BALKANA? (Lajm - Priština) OBELODANJIVANJE “DETALJA” (Zëri - Priština) KOSOVO IZMEĐU AMERIČKIH I RUSKIH PREDSEDNIČKIH IZBORA (Gazeta shqiptare - Tirana) SEVER - NEPOSTOJEĆA DRŽAVA (Kosova sot - Priština) ŠTA ĆE UNMIK UBUDUĆE DA RADI NA SEVERU KOSOVA? (Zëri - Priština) KAKO ĆE “ĐAVO ODNETI KOSOVO”?! (Shqip - Tirana) IZAZOVI I FUNKCIONALNOST DRŽAVE KOSOVO (Lajm - Priština) NA KOSOVU NEMA MESTA ZA DVE DRŽAVE (Zëri - Priština) DVOSTRUKI SUVERENITET (Express - Priština) MI IDEMO NAPRED...! (Infopress - Priština) NEĆE EVROPU, HOĆE - KOLONIJU (55 - Tirana) DA LI KOSOVO TREBA DA SE LJUTI NA SRBIJU?! (Kosovapress - Priština) ODLAZI ILI KOŠTUNICA ILI OSTAJE? (Koha ditore - Priština) ”PUTINIZACIJA” SRBIJE (Shekulli - Tirana) IZVOR PROBLEMA JE U SRBIJI (Epoka e re - Priština) SRAMNO POREĐENJEMINISTRA INOSTRANIH POSLOVA SRBIJE (Zëri - Priština)

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Izbor - Kosmet, 2007 / 09 / 28

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): Serbian

PODELA KOSOVA I ESKALACIJA NA BALKANU (Shqip - Tirana) DA LI JE POLITIČKI PROCES ALBANACA PRI KRAJU ILI NA POČETKU? (Epoka e re - Priština) MEĐUALBANSKE I EVROPSKE INTEGRACIJE (Start - Tirana) KAKAV JE PUT NEZAVISNOSTI KOSOVA BEZ REZOLUCIJE SB OUN? (Zëri - Priština) NEZAVISNOST I MNOGO “ALI” U POLITICI (Epoka e re - Priština) SRPSKA STRATEGIJA PREMA ALBANIJI ZA SPREČAVANJE STATUSA (Ndryshe - Tirana) KOŠTUNIČINA SRBIJA PROVOCIRA (Bota sot - Priština) BEZBEDNOST KOSOVA I PRETNJE KOŠTUNIČINE VLADE (Zeri - Priština) PRETNJE BEOGRADA (Infopress - Priština) ODBAČEN AHTISARIJEV “PAKET”, A ZAJEDNO SA NJIM I OPCIJA (Radio Kosova e lirë - Priština) SRPSKE STRATEGIJE (Koha ditore - Priština) DVE GARANCIJE I VREME KOJE JE PROŠLO (Zëri - Priština) NEZAVISNOST SA KONCESIJOM (Kosova sot - Priština) SRPSKI RAT ZA PODELU (Koha ditore - Priština) “MAKIATO” NA SEVERU...! (Infopress - Priština) POLITIKA BEOGRADA PROTIV INTERESA SRBA SA KOSOVA (Zëri - Priština) MILOSRDNA POLITIKA I SRPSKA MANJINA (Infopress - Priština) KORUPCIJA, 120 DANA, IZBORI! (Koha ditore - Priština) PREURANJENA PONUDA (Lajm - Priština) SAMO NEZAVISNOST (Shekulli - Tirana) RASKRŠĆA KOSOVSKIH SRBA (Koha ditore - Priština)

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№221. Geopolitical Threats to Oil and the Functioning of the International Oil Market

Author(s): Giacomo Luciani / Language(s): English

There is no easy and immediate connection between resource nationalism or political instability and global supply of oil and gas. This is emphatically not because political developments are irrelevant for influence is highly variable and unpredictable.

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The ‘Food-Energy-Water’ Nexus in Central Asia: Regional Implications of and the International Response to the Crises in Tajikistan

Author(s): Matteo Fumagalli / Language(s): English

Most of the spotlight on Central Asia continues to be on its potential role in guaranteeing Europe’s energy security by helping to diversify its energy supplies. This legitimate although increasingly exclusive focus risks overshadowing one of the most urgent issues that the region’s populations face: food security. Food security refers here to both physical and economical access to food and food supplies. To be sure, food security in Central Asia is not to be understood as a standalone challenge. The current food crisis in the region cannot be understood unless located in the broader nexus that encompasses food, water and, indeed, energy (gas and oil). It is only by understanding how the three dimensions of this nexus are entangled that a long-term, concerted and sustained strategy can be developed and applied.

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The EU-Central Asia Human Rights Dialogues: Making a Difference?

Author(s): Vera Axyonova / Language(s): English

Structured human rights dialogues (HRDs) were introduced as part of the broader EU democratisation policy towards Central Asian states after the adoption of the ‘EU and Central Asia: Strategy for a New Partnership’ in June 2007. The dialogues are conducted on a bilateral basis with each of the five Central Asian republics. As with the human rights dialogues established by the EU with a number of other countries, the HRDs with the Central Asian states are designed to ‘discuss questions of mutual interest and enhance cooperation on human rights, inter alia in multilateral arena such as the United Nations and the OSCE’ as well as to ‘raise the concerns felt by the EU on human rights in the countries concerned, gather information and launch initiatives to improve the relevant human rights situation.’

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Democracy in Central Asia: Sowing in Unfertile Fields?

Author(s): Jos Boonstra / Language(s): English

Central Asia is one of the most repressive regions in the world. Compared with the two other former-Soviet regions of Eastern Europe (Belarus, Moldova and Ukraine) and the South Caucasus (Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia), Central Asia shows the least inclination towards democratisation. Although the five Central Asian republics are very different from each other none can be labelled a democracy or even claim to have made substantial progress towards democratic practices. The European Union (EU) in its 2007 Strategy for Central Asia set out to promote democracy, human rights, rule of law and good governance. The EU is active in urging Central Asian regimes to respect human rights, has set up a regional Rule of Law Initiative and runs several projects focusing on good governance, but so far has not been able to advance in any substantial way on several other aspects of democratisation, such as parliamentary reform or capacity-building for political parties.

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EU-US Cooperation in Central Asia: Parallel Lines Meet in Infinity?

Author(s): Jos Boonstra,Marlène Laruelle / Language(s): English

The European Union (EU) and the United States (U.S.) have many shared interests in Central Asia, but follow different approaches. The main points of convergence are the pursuit of human rights standards, democratic development, stability and security, and the broader economic and social development of the Central Asian states. Naturally, there are also divergences, springing above all from the U.S.’s and the EU’s differing geopolitical positioning throughout the world. While the U.S. focuses largely on hard security, the EU mostly seeks to promote its security objectives through longer-term development approaches. Furthermore, each has its own trade interests in the region, although these do not seem to conflict at large.

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The Launch of EU Central Asia Monitoring

Author(s): Neil Melvin,Nargis Kassenova / Language(s): English

Following the launch of the EU Strategy for Central Asia in 2007, relations with the countries of the region have at last been acknowledged as a priority for Brussels and an integral part of the Union’s eastern policies. Its adoption has been seen as the ‘final piece’ in the jigsaw of EU policies toward the former states of the Soviet Union: the European Neighbourhood Policy, the Black Sea Synergy, the Baku Initiative, the Eastern Partnership (currently under development) and now the Strategy for Central Asia. Together, this complex of policy initiatives marks a strong commitment to strengthening the role of the EU in Eurasia at a time of growing political and economic uncertainty and when the importance of the countries of the region is increasing, both for energy and security reasons.

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The energy problematique in EU-Central Asia relations

Author(s): Jos Boonstra,Michael Denison,Vaclav Hubinger,Jacqueline Hale,Rainer Behnke,Natalia Mirimanova / Language(s): English

In discussing the opportunities for importing Central Asian energy opinion and policymakers can be divided in two groups. Those that are gloomy and sceptic on the prospects of Central Asia as an interesting energy market for the EU and those that are less gloomy (though not optimistic). In the EU Strategy for Central Asia, energy is one of the seven priorities. The EU states to be interested in Central Asian gas while it also offers assistance to Central Asia in developing exploitation of energy resources. Over the last few years the EU has stepped up talks with Central Asian leaders, especially on energy relations. EU Special Representative Pierre Morel is known for his ‘realism’ in pursuit of EU energy interests and has worked to strengthen ties that give EU companies better access. Also Memorandums of Understanding concerning energy were signed with Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. Regardless of all this the EU has little concrete projects or deals to show. Both in working with the energy-rich Central Asian regimes of Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan in increasing exploitation of energy resources or in actually importing energy. Kazakhstan is the positive exception since practical ties are strengthened although Kazakh oil export to the EU remains modest. Brussels and other European capitals do not seem able to agree on key questions with relation to Central Asia’s energy potential. Only in case the following four questions are answered positively might the gloomy become less so.

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Getting to know each other: the EU and civil society in Central Asia

Author(s): Jos Boonstra,Aigerim Duimagambetova,Bauke Snoep,Adil Nurmakov,Jiří Kopal,Nafisa Hasanova / Language(s): English

Forging links between European civil society organisations and their counterparts in Central Asia is no easy task. Delivering on EU financial support to NGOs and other civil groupings would appear to be even more of a challenge. The EU tries to achieve a lot in terms of assistance but it risks spreading limited resources too thinly, which could limit impact on all fronts. Assistance consists of a variety of instruments, mechanisms and support programmes, such as the Food Security Programme; ‘Central Asia invest’; democracy promotion through the European Initiative for Democracy and Human rights and direct budget support in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. Choices need to be made about where the EU should place its money. Not easy, since all subjects and programmes seem worthy at first sight. What about support for civil society?

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Security and development key in new EUCAM programme

Author(s): Jos Boonstra,Pierre Morel,Alain Délétroz / Language(s): English

It is a pleasure to introduce a new EUCAM Watch as part of the new Europe-Central Asia Monitoring programme. Much has happened in Central Asia since February 2010 when we concluded our first EUCAM cycle, especially in the sphere of security and stability. Most notable of course are the radical changes that took place in Kyrgyzstan which were quickly followed by an outbreak of ethnic violence in June last year. Almost a year after the violence, this small mountainous republic is slowly regaining some stability having installed a new Constitution and conducted peaceful and reasonably free and fair elections. While attention has been devoted to installing a new – more democratic and less corrupt – government in reaction to Bakiyev’s ousting, the root causes of the ethnic violence need to be further addressed in a follow up to the Kiljunen report. Distrust between Kyrgyz and Uzbek populations will threaten the southwest of the country as long as no intense reconciliation process is embarked upon.

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Uzbekistan opening up

Author(s): Jos Boonstra,Andreas Marazis,Peter Burian,Alisher Ilkhamov,Alisher Siddique,Zaynab Dost,Sevara Khamidova,Diana Mamatova,Sergey Marinin,Nushofarin Noziri / Language(s): English

Uzbekistan has begun to take steps towards openness, and economic and political reform. Since the death of President Islam Karimov in September 2016 and the parliamentary appointment of Shavkat Mirziyoyev as the new President of the Republic, Uzbekistan has improved relations with its neighbours and started a process of internal reform. Despite these positive signs, it is still too early to estimate the extent of Uzbekistan’s political transformation over the coming years.

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How ‘central’ is Central Asia in the EU-Asia connectivity strategy?

Author(s): Jos Boonstra,Andreas Marazis,Boris Iarochevich,Frans-Paul van der Putten,Jacopo Maria Pepe,Anastasiya Ten,Sabrinisso Valdosh,Gulnura Chekirova / Language(s): English

At the end of 2018, the European Union (EU) presented its Europe-Asia connectivity strategy (CS). The CS applies to transport, energy, and digital networks, and includes a human dimension. It is also linked to several ongoing and planned EU projects and processes. While it has at its core the promotion of EU trade, the CS appears to be very broad and quite open to interpretation. So far, the CS has raised more questions than provided answers. The main geo-political question is whether there is a real need for a connectivity strategy with Asia or if this is the EU’s response to the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). While most observers seem to lean towards the latter, given Asia’s rising economic importance, it is still unclear how the EU plans to compete with China in Asia or if the EU will try to establish synergies around concrete issues between the CS and BRI.

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New EU Strategy for Central Asia: First reactions

Author(s): Jos Boonstra,Fabienne Bossuyt,Nargis Kassenova,Marlène Laruelle,Tika Tsertsvadze / Language(s): English

I always have a ‘to-do list’ at work. And, alike most people, before I complete one task, I already have a few others to add. So in order to prioritise, my list is actually three lists: one with bullet points with what needs to be done this week (make phone calls, answer emails); one with those items that have a deadline down the road (project report, call for proposals); and a sort of wish-list with those things I would like to do when and if time allows (develop a new idea). The new EU strategy for Central Asia, adopted by the EU Council on 17 June, reads a bit like this. It includes things that the EU will do (‘the EU will strengthen cooperation on vocational education and training’); things to continue to address over the coming years (‘the EU will continue to promote respect for human rights’); and matters to devote attention to in due course (‘the EU will aim to encourage more sustainable and inclusive growth models in the region’). In sum, rather than a strategy, it is an approach or more simply, a ‘to-do list’.

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ROBOTROLLING 2/2020

Author(s): Rolf Fredheim,Kristina Van Sant / Language(s): English

Bot activity this quarter fixated on the global COVID-19 pandemic, with conversations about the virus captured by our dataset peaking in March. Pro-Kremlin social media accounts amplified a false story, originally shared by a Russian politician, that Poland closed its airspace to Russian planes delivering humanitarian aid to Italy. Though we found that bots commanded the Russian-language conversations about COVID-19, their content was no more viral than examples from recent Robotrolling reports. Throughout this quarter, we observed a considerable reduction in both the number of unique users and volume of messages. Inauthentic English- and Russian-language activity experienced a similar decline. Since late March, Russian-language activity on Twitter and on VK has been abnormally low. On VK, the conversation about NATO in the Baltics and Poland is currently being conducted in groups with regional or nationalist profiles. Notably, the large Russian state-run media outlets we frequently observe on the platform have engaged far less with the subject in recent months. Additionally, we observed a halving of posts from bot accounts this quarter. Finally, in this edition of Robotrolling, we delve into the role of pro-Kremlin bots in spreading disinformation about COVID-19 throughout March. In our analysis, we identify striking differences between how bots engaged with COVID-19 in the Russian- and English-language information spaces.

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Lumea și valorile ei politice. 1 - 7 Mai 2020

Author(s): Bruno Stefan / Language(s): Romanian

The survey was conducted on May 1-7, 2020 on a national sample of 1545 selected people from 148 rural and urban localities in all counties of Romania. He measured the attitude towards the politics of some states, towards socialism and capitalism, confidence in political leaders, in the projects of political parties, in certain issues of public interest, voting intentions.

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Russian Military Presence in Moldova – a Sensitive Issue for the Future of Relations Between Chișinău and Moscow

Author(s): Ion Tăbârţă / Language(s): English

The presidential elections in the Republic of Moldova are barely over, and the first divergences between the future President of the Republic of Moldova, Maia Sandu – on one hand, and the Kremlin administration – on the other hand, are already foreshadowed. Some statements by Sandu regarding the presence of Russian military troops, illegally stationed on the left bank of the Dniester, and which statements in fact reiterated Chisinău's official stance on this matter, as it was known before the Ion Chicu government, disturbed Moscow and provoked its negative reaction.

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Kako Putinu izručiti Ukrajinu

Author(s): Lev Golinkin / Language(s): Serbian

Nedavni izveštaj Ujedinjenih nacija navodi da je od aprila ovegodine gotovo pola miliona Ukrajinaca napustilo zemlju. Podatak daporodice beže iz ratnog područja je bolan, ali očekivan. Uznemirujući su neki detalji – od otprilike 454.000 ljudi koji su do kraja oktobra napustili Ukrajinu, više od 387.000 je otišlo u Rusiju. Većina izbeglih su govornici ruskog sa istoka, ali to i dalje postavlja otrežnjujuće pitanje: ako je ovo konflikt između Ukrajine i Rusije, zašto je toliko Ukrajinaca izabralo da okuša sreću sa neprijateljem?

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Kako se bez senzacije pravi senzacija

Author(s): Alexander Golts / Language(s): Serbian

Glavna senzacija unapred reklamiranog Putinovog govora u Jalti je da u njemu praktično nema nikakve senzacije. Ispada da je Putinsav svoj takozvani politički aktiv odvezao na Krim samo zato da bi im saopštio nekoliko stvari koje je su već ionako odavno svrstane u banalnost. Uvaženi članovi Dume su prvo, čekajući Putina u svečanoj sali sanatorijuma Mrija (ukr. – Мрiя) puna četiri sata vrteli palčeve da bi potom, kada se on najzad pojavio, čuli reči zahvalnosti za opertivno izglasan zakon o aneksiji Krima. A onda su saznali i šta je sve Moskva za Krimljane spremna da učini – ni manje ni više nego da ih obraduje sa 700 milijardi rubalja. Svi okupljeni narodni izabranici očigledno misle da milijarde padaju s neba jer da nije tako, oni bi se verovatno zainteresovali neće li tajnovac na kraju biti oduzet stanovništvu onih regiona gde su navodno baš njih izabrali.

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