Wywiad z prof. Markiem Cichockim. Długie pożegnanie z kanclerz Angelą Merkel
Rozmowa z prof. Markiem Cichockim
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Rozmowa z prof. Markiem Cichockim
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A Polish minister presents his views on the EU crisis and potential ways of dealing with the current problems.
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A leading Polish scholar offers a new look at the legendary U.S. President Woodrow Wilson and his more than realistic vision of the future of Europe.
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The Harmel Report constituted a genuine breakthrough in NATO’s strategic position on the Soviet Union and Prof. Robert Kupiecki presents its history as well as consequences.
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Polish analyst Ryszarda Formuszewicz offers a synthetic but vital picture of the political situation in Germany following the last elections. Could “the grand coalition” work? And how would it impact on the international position of the country?
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Tomasz Krawczyk presents his original vision of Polish-German relations—from idealism to hard realism.
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Łukasz Jurczyszyn looks at Emmanuel Macron’s presidency as a political fact and a social phenomenon, pointing to its pluses and problems.
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Last year’s Russian-Belarussian manoeuvres in Belarus gave rise to many strategic questions, which Wojciech Lorenz tries to answer.
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An original essay on Polish-Hungarian relations in the broad sense.
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The change in China’s internal and external policy under Xi Jingping confirms the country’s pursuit of broader reform.
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Sovereign Bealurus is a important factor of Polish Foreign Policy. Potential unification of this country with Russia is a horrible worsening of Polish Political situation.
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This paper compares the development of geopolitical theories and divides them into three categories according to their characteristics: offensive, defensive, and normative. Time is a dimension that must be considered in any theory. This paper argues that geospatial characteristics and national development methods determine the changes in geopolitical competition, and force's effectiveness is an intervention variable. The three variables lead to the evolution of geopolitical theory from conflict to defence to institutional cooperation. The emergence of virtual spaces such as the Internet has changed the contradiction between limited geographical space and unlimited national development in geo-competition and provided an opportunity for geopolitical theory to break through power theory. The complexity of the geo-environment that countries face when participating in geo-competition determines the necessity of establishing a united geopolitical view. This paper divides a country's diplomatic environment into three categories: geo-environment, regional environment, and space environment. Distinguishing these three environments can help to think about the focus of a country's foreign strategy. The country must make a difference in the geo-environment, be active in the regional environment, and work hard in the space environment.
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Russia’s large scale aggression war against Ukraine is a first step, never anticipated, in the direction of bringing back war into Europe, in the middle of the 21st Century. Even if only one year of war has passed, some lessons learned have brought into question the type of weapons, the ability to adapt and plan the transition from a peace time defence industry to a wartime industry capable of countering a war fought at wide scale. Moreover, some lessons are related to Ukraine's perspectives of winning for sure the war, but also to the time required to find a solution to such an aggression.
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Review of: Activitatea NATO în anul 2022 NATO. “The Secretary General’s Annual Report - 2022”. 21.03.2023. Disponibil online la https://www.nato.int/nato_static_ fl 2014/assets/pdf/2023/3/pdf/sgar22-en.pdf Activitatea UE în anul 2022 Comisia Europeană. “UE în 2022 – Raport General privind activitățile Uniunii Europene.” 2023. Disponibil online la https:// op.europa.eu/en/publication-detail/-/publication/d73b364e-c180- 11ed-8912-01aa75ed71a1/language-en Integrarea inteligenței artifi ciale în strategiile din domeniul apărării. Michael RASKA și Richard A. BITZINGER (eds.), The AI Wave in Defence Innovation: Assessing military artificial intelligence strategies, capabilities and trajectories, Londra și New York: Routledge, 2023. Geopolitica – disciplină cheie pentru înțelegerea relațiilor internaționale. MUSSETTI, Mirko. Roza geopolitică – Economie, strategie și cultură în relațiile internaționale. București, Editura Militară, 2023. Tendințe strategice. Center for Security Studies, ”Strategic Trends 2023: Key Developments in Global Affairs”, ETH Zurich, 2023. Disponibil online la https://css.ethz.ch/content/dam/ethz/ special-interest/gess/cis/center-for-securities-studies/pdfs/ ST2023.pdf Ecosistemul transatlantic de inovare– între cooperare, competiție și identifi carea de sinergii Bjorn FAGERSEN et al, ”Navigating the Euro-Atlantic defence innovation landscape”, Politea, Martie 2023. Disponibil online la https://media.politea.se/2023/03/Politea-Defence-InnovationReport.pdf Tendințe în percepția populației din Europa Centrală și de Est GLOBSEC, “GLOBSEC Trends 2023”, Mai 2023. Disponibil online la https://www.globsec.org/sites/default/ fi les/2023-05/GLOBSEC%20Trends%202023.pdf Percepția populației din România și Norvegia la un an după izbucnirea războiului din Ucraina Alina BÂRGĂOANU et al, ”A year of war: National Attitudes in Romania and Norway”, New Strategy Center and Norwegian Institute of International Affairs, Mai 2023. Disponibil online la https://newstrategycenter.ro/ wp-content/uploads/2023/05/A-year-of-War-%E2%80%93- National-Attitudes-in-Romania-and-Norway-policy-2.pdf Statul Major General al FA ruse – rol și responsabilități în sistemul decizional din F.Rusă Alexis A. BLANC et al, “The Russian General Staff : Understanding the Military’s Decisionmaking Role in a Besieged Fortress”, Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2023. Disponibil online la https://www.rand.org/pubs/ research_reports/RRA1233-7.html Statul Major General al FA ruse – rol și responsabilități în sistemul decizional din F.Rusă Alexis A. BLANC et al, “The Russian General Staff : Understanding the Military’s Decisionmaking Role in a Besieged Fortress”, Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2023. Disponibil online la https://www.rand.org/pubs/ research_reports/RRA1233-7.html
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The purpose of this article is to formulate an answer to the question of how numerous the Armed Forces of Poland should be, and how many tactical units they should have in light of pre-war methods of calculating defense needs. The methods of conducting calculations were taken from the works of Stefan Rowecki and Tadeusz Kutrzeba and V.K. Trandafilov. The ongoing war in Ukraine assumes not only a positional character, but also becomes a clash in which mass begins to play a decisive role. This justifies the choice of calculation methods referring to the times of mass warfare. Among the main problems with the method of calculation was the translation to today's realities of the assumption made by Trandafilov that the density of fire for effective defense should be 5 shells per minute per kilometer of front. Since it was not possible to find contemporary efficiency indicators, the assumption was made that a modern battalion ensures the conduct of an effective defense on a 5-kilometer frontline. This is supported by both the models associated with the calculation division and the tactical norms expressed in the regulations. The main contradiction revealed in the work concerns the differences between the actual state of the army and the calculated defense needs. Poland has 4 divisions, and the ongoing discussion since 2018 is about increasing their number to 5. In contrast, the calculations made show that a minimum of 16 such tactical unions are needed for a 650-kilometer-long dangerous border.
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As a phenomenon of the 21st century, the Ukraine-Russia war challenges neo- liberal ideas about the loss of meaning of hard power and undermines claims that phenomena such as war no longer belong to contemporary international relations. On the contrary, it confirms the credibility of the neo-realist geopolitical paradigm. The purpose of this article is to examine the concept of peace and victory, in the context of the ongoing war, in Ukraine's domestic and foreign policy practice. Therefore, the first part of the article is devoted to the conceptualization of war, peace and victory. The second part examines the importance of the concept of war as a foundation of Ukraine's domestic policy, which helps to understand the value of peace. The last part of the article presents an analysis of Ukraine's foreign policy, which presents predictive assessments of the advent of peace and its impact on regional and global security. The optimistic prediction is that Europe will still find the strength to avoid the mistakes of the past, overcome its fear of Russia and make efforts to maintain the old post-bipolar order. Outlining the contours of a new international security system is only possible if Russia is defeated. If this does not happen, the unipolar peace will be replaced by a multipolar peace, and the new security system of Eastern Europe will be based on a regional arrangement capable of repelling threats both from the East and from other directions. The leading role in it, after victory over Russia, will most likely belong to Ukraine.
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The purpose of the study is to try to formulate an answer to the question of how the war waged in Ukraine and the conflict with the West are assessed by influential Russian geopoliticians. The empirical basis of the conducted research is provided by the articles contained in the leading Russian geopolitical journal "Russia in Global Affairs" in the period from May 2022 to May 2023. The opinions of their authors range from disapproval of Russia's actions in Ukraine, serious fears of a break in relations with the West and Russia's descent into isolation, to full acceptance of these actions treated as a struggle of the "world majority" led by Russia against the hegemony of the West. Some researchers look for the positives of Russia's situation, which gives the impression of "putting a good face on a bad game," while others express fears of disaster, i.e. the collapse of state power and the disintegration of Russia.
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Advances in the field of military action strategy create the need to reexamine the definition of proxy war. Contemporary researchers are attempting to systematize knowledge on the subject, including those related to the development of a definition of proxy war that corresponds to the contemporary realities of military action. However, there is no consensus among researchers on what characterizes it. It is often equated with indirect action, political intervention, or hybrid warfare. This article aims to organize this knowledge. The subject of the research is the definition of proxy war in the context of its understanding in contemporary scientific discourse. The main problem, determining the research conducted, is to answer the question: what is the contemporary understanding of proxy wars? In order to solve the above research problem, the author undertook an analysis of the existing definitions, focusing on the elements that characterize them, such as: the objectives of using proxy war strategies, the elements determining its occurrence, or the number of parties determining the occurrence of this type of conflict. Due to the existence of many definitions of proxy war, related to each other in content, it was necessary to make a selection, the main criterion of which was the impact of these definitions on the scientific discourse.
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In geopolitical perspective, the Eastern Mediterranean with its potential gas reserves has turned into a zone of tensions and growing contest between regional as well as external actors. Furthermore, the maritime delimitation disputes have increased the likelihood of confrontation between Turkey and Greece. The aim of this paper is to discuss the major concerns of Greece with regard to power politics in the Eastern Mediterranean. Analyzing political and diplomatic relations and applying instruments of geopolitical analysis, the paper discusses current achievements of the Greek foreign policy, the worrisome relations between Greece and Turkey, the Cyprus issue and the energy projects competition. Greece perceives Turkey under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as an increasingly authoritarian, unpredictable and revisionist state. Therefore, Greek policies aim to counter Turkey’s expansionism by establishing a network of enhanced bilateral engagement with the US, France and countries from the Eastern Mediterranean. The paper, however, concludes that problems between Greece and Turkey still remain as one of the key challenges for Greece and its strategy in the region. It is particularly difficult for Athens and Ankara to solve their differences due to diverging mindsets and contradictory agendas. Trust can hardly be restored and time is required. There are hopes and expectations that common sense on both sides would prevail and a mode of cooperation with Ankara would be possible, even if the most difficult issues of the power gambit in the Eastern Mediterranean remain unsolved.
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The study proposes that the current war in Ukraine represents a “Global Cold Security War”, which goes beyond the conceptual and geographical boundaries of the conflict itself. The security of the European Union is directly influenced by this conflict, as the EU relies on regional stability and security to maintain its own security. The concept of a “Global War on Cold Security” is an attempt to recognise the complexity of the current conflict in Ukraine and the interdependence of international actors. This concept suggests that the problem is not limited to Ukraine, but also involves other states and international organisations such as the UN and the EU. This concept can help understand the global dimensions of the conflict and identify more comprehensive solutions to address international security challenges.
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