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THE MACEDONIAN QUESTION: Reform or Rebellion (ICG Balkans Report 109)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

In late February, violence flared in Albanian-inhabited villages in northern Macedonia close to the border with Kosovo. In mid March, the violence spread to Macedonia’s second largest city, Tetovo. The rebels claimed to be defending themselves against Macedonian security forces, i.e. their own government, and to be fighting for Albanian national rights in Macedonia. The coalition government in Skopje promptly raised the alarm, blaming Kosovo Albanian elements for exporting rebellion to Macedonia, and calling for the NATO-led forces in Kosovo (KFOR) to seal the border. The rebels claimed they were local Albanians, numbering 2,000 and recruiting dozens of volunteers from the surrounding area every day. Now that the dust around Tetovo has settled, the government and parliament need to face squarely, without panicking, a large political question: Are the Macedonians and Albanians in the country committed to integrated living? Or, should they accept nationalist logic and prepare to negotiate federalisation?

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NO EARLY EXIT: NATO's continuing Challenge in Bosnia (ICG Balkans Report N°110)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

As the civilian international agencies and local democratic forces continue to tackle obstructionist elements, the presence of SFOR to provide a 'safe and secure' environment is more crucial than ever. Recent rioting by Dayton's Bosnian Serb and Croat enemies in Banja Luka, Trebinje and Mostar - and the increasing incidence of attacks on refugees seeking to return to their homes - demonstrate that radical elements have become more desperate and dangerous. Experience has shown that the credible display of force by SFOR is necessary to deter such violence. In addition, more arrests by SFOR of persons indicted by The Hague Tribunal would improve the political and security situations, while making it clear that individuals, not nations, bear responsibility for wartime atrocities.

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ALBANIA: The State of the Nation 2001 (ICG Balkans Report N°111)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

This report describes the current situation in Albania, paying particular attention to relations with the country’s Balkan neighbours, Kosovo, Montenegro, Macedonia and Greece. The recent upsurge in fighting in the Presevo Valley of southern Serbia and in Macedonia has damaged the reputation of all Albanians in the region and has once more raised the spectre of a Greater Albania. Consequently, the Albanian government has been at pains to stress that it does not support the ethnic Albanian insurgents and wishes to see the territorial integrity of Macedonia upheld. To this end, Tirana has requested NATO’s assistance to secure the Albania-Macedonia border, and has called for a solution to the crisis through dialogue.

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A FAIR EXCHANGE: Aid to Yugoslavia for Regional Stability (ICG Balkans Report N° 112)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Aid conditionality is an effective tool because the FRY’s shattered economy relies on donor support for numerous social programs, as well as electricity, debt relief, restructuring, and, in the winter, heating. The events leading up to Milosevic’s arrest in the early hours of 1 April 2001 demonstrated the viability of conditionality-based policies. This report argues that major donors should use their leverage by conditioning assistance on concrete actions from the FRY government to fulfil its obligations on three issues vital to regional stability.

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MACEDONIA: The Last Chance for Peace (ICG Balkans Report N° 113)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

In the past three months, since mid March 2001, Macedonia has stared into the abyss of inter-ethnic conflict, pulled away from the precipice, squandered opportunities for a political settlement, then returned as if sleepwalking to the brink of civil war. The downward spiral was interrupted on 11 June, when the Macedonian government and the ethnic Albanian rebels agreed to a ceasefire. The following day the government abruptly endorsed a peace plan proposed by President Boris Trajkovski. For their part, the NLA guerrillas expressed a readiness to halt their insurgency but want to see concrete steps towards improving Albanian rights.

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MONTENEGRO: Resolving the Independence Deadlock (ICG Balkans Report N° 114)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Montenegro‘s authorities remain committed to independence. However, the hopes of the republic‘s ruling parties that the election on 22 April 2001 would bring a comfortable victory, to be followed swiftly by a referendum and independence, were not realised. The narrow victory for the pro-independence parties only confirmed the depth of division over the republic‘s status. Plans for an independence referendum were postponed until early 2002. With some difficulty, the pro-independence ruling parties formed a minority government backed by the radically proindependence Liberal Alliance, which demands rapid progress towards a referendum. However, the lack of a broad consensus on the status issue or on the rules and conditions for a referendum makes it difficult to press ahead with independence plans under current circumstances.

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PEACE IN PREŠEVO: Quick Fix or Long Term Solution? (ICG Balkans Report N° 116)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

This report traces the political process that achieved this transfer of authority over 1,200 square kilometres of territory, focusing on two issues. First, it considers the reforms that are still needed to achieve lasting peace in the Presevo area. Second, it considers the hopeful claim from some quarters that this transfer of authority, based on unprecedented cooperation between NATO and the new regime in Belgrade, may offer a model for tackling other disputes in the wider neighbourhood. The circumstances of peacemaking in Presevo were unique and cannot be emulated elsewhere. Recent events, moreover, illustrate that declarations of victory by Western observers remain premature. The insurgency in southern Serbia reflected real and deeply rooted problems, both local and regional. Conditions for reconciliation are in place, but the process itself has hardly begun. The longer term prospects for peaceful reintegration now depend on effective follow through by the Serbian authorities assisted by ethnic Albanian leaders and the international community.

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SERBIA’S TRANSITION: Reforms under Siege (ICG Balkans Report N° 117)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Kostunica’s DSS led the attacks against a group of reform-oriented, relatively pragmatic politicians centred mostly around Serbian Premier Zoran Djindjic and his Democratic Party (DS). The severity of the DSS attack dealt a heavy blow to the coalition and changed the face of Serbian politics. Although the two sides may soon patch up their differences, the fallout from the events surrounding the ‘Gavrilovic Affair’ will be widespread and could affect the pace and extent of political and economic reforms, as well as Yugoslavia’s cooperation with the international community and its neighbours. So too the lack of civilian control over the Yugoslav Army (VJ) has become more apparent. In regional terms, at stake in the current struggle within DOS are the continuation of FRY funding for the Army of Bosnia’s Republika Srpska, Belgrade’s stance towards UNMIK, and the question of further cooperation with the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia (ICTY).

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THE WAGES OF SIN: Confronting Bosnia’s Republika Srpska (Balkans Report N° 118)

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By recognising Republika Srpska (RS) as a legitimate polity and constituent entity of the new Bosnia, the 1995 Dayton Peace Agreement embraced a contradiction. For the RS was founded as a stepping stone to a Greater Serbia. and forged in atrocities against - and mass expulsions of non-Serbs. … Almost six years after Dayton, these hopes lie unfulfilled and partly forgotten. … Converted to Dayton constitutionalism, and fortified by the election of a respectable nationalist to the Yugoslav presidency in Belgrade, the rebranded SDS remains as unwilling as ever to define „its state“ as the rightful home of Bosnians of all faiths. The riots organised in May 2001 to prevent the reconstruction of historic mosques razed during the war and the government‘s continuing refusal, even after Milosevic.s transfer to the ICTY in June, to cooperate with The Hague ought to have made plain that the RS remains true to its wartime self. Vague international threats to punish the RS on both scores led only to token concessions by the authorities.

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BIN LADEN AND THE BALKANS: The Politics of Anti-Terrorism (ICG Balkans Report N° 119)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Given the presence of ex-mujahidin in Bosnia, the tens of thousands of former military and paramilitary fighters in Bosnia, Kosovo and Macedonia who are Muslims by tradition, if not for the most part by observance, and the large deployments of U.S. and other troops in the region, some (though by no means all) senior Western sources describe the potential terrorist threat as significant. In this context, international officials and organisations in parts of the region, as well as certain governments, have taken extra security precautions, and clamped down on individuals and groups suspected of possible links to terrorist networks. In this context, it is important that the international community should not be distracted by the wave of anti-Muslim opinion and propaganda that has washed through Serbia, Macedonia, and the Serbcontrolled parts of Bosnia. In these countries, and also in Albania, Western capitals must reward governments. overall democratic performance, not the volume of their denunciations of terrorism.

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KOSOVO: Landmark Election (Balkans Report N° 120)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

On 17 November 2001, people from Kosovo turned a page in their history by voting in multiparty elections for new self-government institutions. The conduct of the election was generally judged to have been a clear improvement on the municipal elections of October 2000. Levels of violence were much lower, even though more voters took part. In the run-up to the election, a key issue was whether or not Serbs would participate. The SRSG engaged in a round of frenetic negotiations with Belgrade leaders that eventually bore fruit just a fortnight before the vote. While an agreement was reached which enabled Belgrade to claim that they had won concessions, but without UNMIK compromising the principles contained in UNSCR 1244 or the Constitutional Framework, Albanian leaders were incensed by the agreement and by the key involvement of Belgrade in the process.

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BOSNIA: Reshaping the International Machinery (ICG Balkans Report No. 121)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

After six years and billions of dollars spent, peace implementation in Bosnia and Herzegovina remains far from complete. Reshaping (‚recalibrating‘, in local jargon) the international community (IC) presence is vital if the peace process is to have a successful outcome. Above all, however, the reform must acknowledge that if Bosnia cannot be put on its feet by evolution, nudged along by the High Representative, or by some negotiated constitutional settlement, then the IC must be ready to impose a more workable and democratic model than Dayton envisaged. This could involve creating a strong but fully representative central government, clearing away the counterproductive entity and cantonal structures, devolving substantial powers to the municipalities, and designing largely depoliticised structures for regional administration. It is not too soon for the PIC Steering Board to start consultations on post-Dayton structures.

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MACEDONIA’S NAME: Why the Dispute Matters and How to Resolve it (ICG Balkans Report No. 122)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

On 16 November 2001, Macedonia’s parliament passed a set of constitutional amendments that were agreed in August, when Macedonian and Albanian minority leaders signed the Ohrid Framework Agreement. Later that day, President Trajkovski clarified the terms of an amnesty for Albanian rebels, in line with international requests. So far as Macedonians are concerned, the Agreement contains a double weakness. First, it redresses long-standing minority grievances mainly by reducing the privileges of the majority. Secondly, its purpose of turning Macedonia into a ‘civic state’ – while admirable and necessary – makes Macedonia an anomaly in a region of emphatically ‘ethnic’ states, three of which uphold fundamental challenges to the Macedonian identity. Greece vetoes international acceptance of Macedonia’s name, Serbia denies the autonomy of its church, and Bulgaria (while accepting Macedonia as a state) denies the existence of a Macedonian language and a Macedonian nation.

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A KOSOVO ROADMAP (I). Addressing Final Status (ICG Balkans Report No. 124)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

In order to move towards a resolution of Kosovo’s final status, two distinct aspects need to be considered: an ‘external’ and an ‘internal’ dimension. The ‘external’ dimension involves devising a process to address final status, including all of the different actors with a stake in Kosovo’s future. The ‘internal’ dimension concerns the development of Kosovo’s own democratic institutions, the rule of law and human rights, so as to prepare Kosovo for whatever final status may eventually be agreed. These dimensions are duly treated in a pair of reports sharing a common title, A Kosovo Roadmap, issued simultaneously and subtitled I. Addressing Final Status and II. Internal Benchmarks.

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A KOSOVO ROADMAP (II). Internal Benchmarks (ICG Balkans Report N° 125)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

In examining Kosovo’s final status, the International Crisis Group argues that the issue has two aspects, inseparable and overlapping but nevertheless distinct. The ‘external’ dimension involves the interests of, and relationships between, the different actors with a stake in Kosovo’s future, while the ‘internal’ dimension concerns the development of Kosovo’s own democratic institutions, laws and standards. These dimensions are duly treated in a pair of reports sharing a common title, A Kosovo Roadmap, issued simultaneously and subtitled I. Addressing Final Status and II. Internal Benchmarks. Together, these reports show two, parallel paths which need be negotiated simultaneously in order to reach the desired destination: a stable, democratic Kosovo, standing on its own feet, peacefully integrated in its region, and with a clearly defined place in the international community.

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IMPLEMENTING EQUALITY: The “Constituent Peoples” decision in Bosnia & Herzegovina (ICG Balkans Report No. 128)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

This report recounts the origins of the “constituent peoples” case and the scope of the Court’s decision. It then describes the unprecedented debate on fundamental aspects of the DPA that has occurred in both entities since December 2001. It analyses the Sarajevo Agreement, the amendments enacted by the RSNA and the draft amendments awaiting debate in the Federation parliament in terms of the guarantees needed to ensure equal rights for Bosnia’s “constituent peoples” and “others”. Finally, it analyses changes not specifically regulated by the Sarajevo Agreement, but mandated by the decision of the Constitutional Court.

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UNMIK’s KOSOVO ALBATROSS: Tackling Division in Mitrovica (ICG Balkans Report No. 131)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

The international community must demonstrate that it has a clear strategy for overcoming Mitrovica’s division, and above all that it has the will to solve the problem. This report proposes that it adopt a multi-track approach that combines pressure on Belgrade to honour its obligations in Kosovo with vigorous action to ensure the rule of law in Mitrovica and an innovative offer to the city’s Serbs of integration into local government structures.

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FINDING THE BALANCE: The Scales of Justice in Kosovo (ICG Balkans Report N°134)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Under the Constitutional Framework, authority for the justice sector – with the exception of the administration of courts - is reserved to the Special Representative of the Secretary General (SRSG). However, this does not absolve UNMIK of the responsibility to involve Kosovo officials in planning the system. The Department of Justice is currently developing a transition strategy for the implementation of UNMIK’s benchmarks. ICG calls on the Department to include Kosovo officials in the development of this strategy. Moreover, Kosovo officials should be gradually introduced into policy and planning functions more generally, co-head positions should be established in the Department of Justice, and international staff dedicated solely to building the capacity of local officials should be seconded into the Department. Finding the Balance also examines the prosecution of sensitive offences such as war crimes and ethnically motivated violence. Despite the significant resources devoted to the documentation of war crimes, they have largely gone unpunished as has subsequent violence against Kosovo’s minorities.

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MOVING MACEDONIA TOWARD SELF-SUFFICIENCY: A new Security Approach for NATO and the EU (ICG Balkans Report N°135)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Whether through NATO or the EU, the international community needs to continue to help Macedonia during the transition period. NATO should, therefore, remain for six months or until such time as the EU is ready to assume the security functions, whichever period is shorter. This would give NATO a set departure date while ensuring a proper hand-over. As NATO draws down and the EU prepares to take over, the latter should also focus on complementary tasks to demonstrate its increased commitment to Macedonia. In particular, the EU and NATO should act now in tandem to address the gap in border control – probably the most vital remaining security issue – by deploying and protecting a sizeable EUMM contingent along the vulnerable Kosovo, Serbia and Albania borders.

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THE CONTINUING CHALLENGE OF REFUGEE RETURN IN BOSNIA & HERZEGOVINA (ICG Balkans Report N°137)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Although the security situation has improved considerably, intimidation of “minority” returnees still occurs. Local police, prosecutors and courts often fail to bring those responsible for nationally motivated violence to book. In some parts of the RS a returnee is ten times more likely to be the victim of violent crime than is a local Serb. Even where the actual threat may be low, the continuing presence of putative war criminals – especially if in public office – sends a message to potential returnees. Nationalist authorities also create economic incentives for “their” people to relocate through the often-illegal distribution of building plots and business premises, with the apparent intention of ensuring that returnees remain a poor minority. This report also analyses the impact of recent amendments to the constitutions of Bosnia's two entities. These aim to eliminate discrimination by annulling the special constitutional status once accorded Serbs in the RS and Bosniaks and Croats in the Federation and require local administrations to hire returnees according to national quotas, based on the population in the last, pre-war census. If implemented, these amendments will give returnees greater opportunity to defend their interests.

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