№001: U.S. Mid-term Elections: An Ebb of the Obama Revolution

Author(s): Bartosz Wiśniewski / Language(s): English

Pierwszy tekst w serii PISM Policy Papers podejmuje temat możliwych implikacji wyborów do Kongresu USA. Autor tekstu, Bartosz Wiśniewski (analityk PISM), wymienia powody i przejawy rosnącego niezadowolenia amerykańskich wyborców z działań kontrolowanego przez Partię Demokratyczną Kongresu oraz administracji prezydenta Baracka Obamy. Spodziewana wygrana Partii Republikańskiej postawi pod znakiem zapytania przyszłość najważniejszych jak dotąd osiągnięć tej prezydentury, ale tylko w ograniczonym stopniu pozwala na kreślenie perspektyw reelekcji Obamy w 2012 r. Niepowodzenie wyborcze nie wywoła drastycznej zmiany głównych kierunków polityki zagranicznej USA, może jednak wpłynąć na skuteczność międzynarodowej aktywności administracji amerykańskiej.

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№031: The June 17 Elections in Greece: Domestic and European Implications

Author(s): Anna Visvizi / Language(s): English

The author analyses the background of the recent parliamentary elections in Greece, and lists the key challenges facing the new government under Antonis Samaras. Greek authorities will have to perform a tough balancing act while trying to come up with a strategy to address four major problems. First, Greek economy has to start generating growth again. Second, Greece and its international partners need to renegotiate the terms of the Memorandum of Understanding that set out the conditions for external support for Greek reforms. Third, the cabinet under Samaras will have to navigate the troubled waters of domestic politics, fending off criticism from populist parties. Finally, Greece’s image has been tarnished in the recent months, hence the new government must work hard to restore the country’s credibility in Europe and in the wider world. Crucially, external actors, especially fellow members of the EU, have both the assets and the interest in boosting Samaras’ credibility, both domestically and internationally.

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№036: Belarus Before the Elections: The Struggle to Maintain the Status Quo

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

The campaign ahead of the elections to the Belarusian parliament, which are scheduled for September 23, shows the specific nature of its political system. The main factors that distinguish Belarus from democratic countries are the marginal importance of the parliament, concentration of power in the institution of the president, the almost invisible role of the opposition and a defective system of counting votes (such as early voting), which encourages fraud and manipulation of the results. At the same time, the authorities do everything possible to maintain the status quo in the country. Not only does that mean that no single oppositional candidate has a chance to get a mandate in parliament but also that Belarusian authorities will try to avoid implementing necessary reforms, such as liberalisation of the political system or privatisation of state-owned enterprises, because they are afraid of losing power.

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№044: Nabucco West—Perspectives and Relevance: The Reconfigured Scenario

Author(s): Anita Sobják,Konrad Zasztowt / Language(s): English

The aim of the Nabucco West gas pipeline is to supply Eastern and Central Europe with gas from sources other than Russia. Initially, the most likely source for Nabucco West would be Azerbaijani gas from Shah Deniz Phase 2, which would be delivered through the Turkish-Azerbaijani Trans-Anatolian gas pipeline (TANAP). The 8 October meeting in Vienna of energy ministers from countries in the Nabucco West consortium and their counterpart from Azerbaijan suggests that the project is realistic. Nevertheless, the TANAP company has yet to choose whether to connect with this pipeline or the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline, which would supply the Italian market. A decision is due in 2013. This paper examines the impact that TANAP and Nabucco West could have, if implemented, on the energy security of Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary and Austria.

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№05 Kosovo and Elections. What can be improved?

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

This paper examines the last election from a general perspective highlighting the development of a democratic system on one hand, and the political party system on the other. Firstly, it gives a general background on Kosovo’s organization of elections and the political system, coupled by a brief overview of prominent challenges that this system faces. Secondly, the paper moves to discuss the overall progress of the elections, including legal problems, information dissemination to citizens, issues with the administration of election results, and other aspects. Both these aims are pursued through following the principles of independent research and respect for the rules of public policy writing.

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№071: Bundestag Elections 2013: Consequences for German Capitalism and European Integration

Author(s): Sebastian Płóciennik / Language(s): English

Germany will draw a lot of attention in September 2013 when its citizens will choose a new federal parliament—Bundestag. The reason is not only the fact that the country is a big player but also that it dominates Europe on a scale not observed since the 1980s. Its economic model seems to be the most efficient in Europe at the moment and the country even has enough power to set reform agendas across the EU. Since the biggest changes in German internal and external politics can be expected if the opposition is victorious, it seems important to analyse in advance the key elements of the proposals by the major opposition force: Social-Democratic Party (SPD) and the Alliance 90/The Greens. This could help us understand what kind of change to German capitalism is advocated by these parties and how their election success could affect European integration.

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№081. Parties of Power as Roadblocks to Democracy: The Cases of Ukraine and Egypt

Author(s): Madalena Resende,Hendrik Kraetzschmar / Language(s): English

As typified by Ukraine and Egypt, most of the semi- or non-democratic countries in the EU’s neighbourhood pretend to offer a degree of political pluralism. The standard is for a plurality of parties to run in national elections and participate in parliamentary sessions. In contrast to fully fledged democracies, however, these electoral rituals have little bearing on the composition of government and its policy output, which remains entirely dominated by the executive institutions and parties of power. This paper argues that the trademarks of these types of parties are a serious stumbling block for the development of a multi-party system based on competing ideological currents. For democracy to take hold in the EU’s eastern and southern neighbourhood of the EU, it is crucial that the logic of parties of power be replaced by one structured around autonomous and ideologically cohesive parties. Thus, both ideological and organisational party-building should be an integral part of the EU’s policy agenda to promote the spread of democracy in these regions. Date of Publishing: August 1, 2005

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№089 Public feeling in Ukraine ahead of the parliamentary election

Author(s): Tadeusz Iwański / Language(s): English

After two and a half years under President Viktor Yanukovych and the Party of Regions, the overwhelming majority of Ukrainians are dissatisfied with the state the country’s economy is currently in and the direction it has been developing in. There has also been a significant drop in stability and social security with the general public increasingly feeling that the government has little interest in their problems.Only 16% of Ukrainians believe that the current government has performed better than their predecessors, although overall confidence in both the ruling party and the opposition remains low. Nonetheless, falling support for the president and the Cabinet does not seem to have translated into greater popularity for the country’s opposition parties; these currently enjoy the confidence of only a quarter of the electorate. The clear lack of credibility for politicians on either side of the political spectrum, coupled with an almost universal preoccupation with the bare necessities of life, has shifted the political processes in Ukraine further down the agenda for the majority of Ukrainians.

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№094: Bumps on Russia’s Road to the Eurasian Economic Union: Postponed Integration, Costly Enlargement and Delayed International Recognition

Author(s): Stanislav Secrieru / Language(s): English

Eurasian integration has been formally elevated to a new level. On 29 May, Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan signed in Astana the founding treaty of the Eurasian Economic Union. However, problems related to integration, enlargement and international cooperation with the EEU indicate the effort is far from a point of no return. Despite the upbeat mood in Moscow, integration remains weak and selective, and in several important fields has been shelved until 2025. At the same time, the enlargement process has encountered security-related obstacles and triggered additional costs for Russia.

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№097 The electoral success of the Svoboda Party – the consequences for Ukrainian politics

Author(s): Tadeusz A. Olszański / Language(s): English

The All-Ukrainian Association ‘Svoboda’ scored an unexpected success in the parliamentary elections, winning support from over 10% of the voters and entering the select group of Ukrainian parliamentary parties which operate at a national level. Svoboda’s manifesto is nationalist and anti-liberal, in both economic and political aspects. It is in fact the anti-liberal component of this party’s manifesto which it can thank for achieving such a big electoral success.The faction formed by Svoboda’s 37 representatives in the Verkhovna Rada (Ukrainian parliament) will have a small impact on legislative work, but their activity may add further to the brutalisation of parliamentary life. Furthermore, Svoboda will attempt to make other opposition groupings adopt a more radical approach, which may trigger the disintegration of the United Opposition Baktivshchyna. A new wave of public protests is likely to emerge in Ukraine in the coming months. Therefore, it can be expected that Svoboda will make efforts to join in or even incite them, in order to promote its social and nationalist messages. This may contribute to increasing the popularity of nationalist ideas and to a further radicalisation of sentiments in Ukraine.

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№10: New Strategy for Afghanistan? Political Reform – First!

Author(s): Piotr Krawczyk / Language(s): English

The manipulated presidential election of August 2009 has provided new rationale for increasingly negative assessments of the situation in Afghanistan. The Afghans’ growing mistrust of the authorities and the administration looms, alongside the insurgents’ activities, as the country’s gravest problem. The sources of the state’s illness include not only the dismal economy and a lack of security, but a dysfunctional political system divorced from the country’s social realities. The system breeds corruption and conflicts and obstructs the discharge of the state’s fundamental functions. It follows that much of Afghanistan’s instability has internal political roots which, unless removed, will render enduring improvement of the country’s situation impossible.

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№114 The strength of the Christian Democrats, the weakness of the opposition. Germany before the parliamentary elections

Author(s): Marta Zawilska-Florczuk / Language(s): English

The political campaign before Germany’s parliamentary elections to be held on 22 September has in all its glory reflected the trends visible during the last four years of the government of Chancellor Angela Merkel – the strength of the Christian Democrats, the weakness of the opposition and the increasing marginalisation of the coalition partner, the FDP. The CDU/CSU remains the most popular political choice in Germany, largely because Angela Merkel has consistently remained the most popular German politician. Everything indicates that the CDU/CSU will win the election, even though it has been running a passive campaign and the Chancellor herself has been avoiding confrontation, presenting herself as a kind of cross-party representative of the interests of all social groups. The Christian Democrats’ main competitors, the Social Democrats, have been unable to play to their strengths and present themselves as a serious alternative to the CDU/CSU. The Christian Democrats, despite their difficult cooperation with the liberal FDP, have declared their willingness to continue doing so during the next parliamentary term. If the numbers make that impossible, and the Social Democrats and the Greens have too few votes to be able to form a government, a grand coalition of the Christian Democrats and the SPD will be formed in Germany.

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№149 Before the parliamentary elections in Ukraine

Author(s): Tadeusz A. Olszański / Language(s): English

The parliamentary elections to be held in Ukraine on 26 October will bring about deep changes in the political composition of the Verkhovna Rada, Ukraine’s parliament. It is very probable that after the elections only one or two of the five parties which are represented in the parliament today will remain, and the leading positions will be taken by groupings who were still considered marginal a year ago. The Petro Poroshenko Bloc, a party which according to polls can count on victory, did not exist a year ago and today still remains in the construction phase. It is likely that around two-thirds of the newly elected deputies will be people with no parliamentary or even no political experience. On the one hand, this may be a strong impetus to revival; but on the other the lack of experience of most of the parliamentarians may be a problem. Another source of potential problems may be the process of consolidating the internally unstable political parties which have emerged during the electoral campaign.

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№149: The Global Outlook of the Top Five Candidates in the U.S. Presidential Election

Author(s): Cordelia Buchanan Ponczek / Language(s): English

Traditionally, there is a partisan split on foreign policy in the United States: Republican candidates and voters worry more about terrorism, defence and national security than Democratic candidates and voters, thereby putting more stock in foreign policy issues, which manifests itself in the aggressiveness—of lack thereof—of each party’s foreign policy platform. But the candidates in the 2016 U.S. presidential election can be categorised by more than just party: a line can also be drawn between conventional candidates—Hillary Clinton, a Democrat, and Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio, Republicans—and unconventional candidates—Donald Trump, a Republican, and Bernie Sanders, a Democrat. Should a conventional candidate be elected president, U.S. foreign policy would be based on predictable adaptation to the changing international environment. An unconventional candidate, however, would be a wild card, whose actions would be difficult to predict.

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№231 AfD – the alternative for whom?

Author(s): Artur Ciechanowicz / Language(s): English

When in 2013 a group of professors of economics founded Alternative for Germany (Alternative für Deutschland – AfD) it seemed that the name of the new grouping was exaggerated. Taking into account its slogans and its leaders, the AfD could at that time be an alternative for disenchanted voters of the CDU/CSU and the FDP alone. The party’s ‘founding fathers’, among whom there was a large group of former CDU members, did not conceal the fact that their ambitions were not particularly far-reaching. Their basic goal was to influence the CDU so that it would return to its former conservative values.

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№248 Elections to the Bundestag: make or break for the liberal party

Author(s): Artur Ciechanowicz / Language(s): English

Many commentators viewed the FDP’s defeat in the 2013 Bundestag elections, when the party failed to cross the 5% electoral threshold, as the end of the German liberal party. This view was further confirmed by another local election which the FDP lost, and by the dwindling number of party members. The FDP became a symbol of the maladies affecting German political life, and of politicians’ faults: clientelism, opportunism, a lack of direction and greed. The party had been present in the Bundestag for 64 subsequent years, and had been a member of government coalitions for 45 years. It also served as the power base for two presidents of Germany, as well as for Hans-Dietrich Genscher, for many years Germany’s foreign minister. However, during a period of just four years (2009–2013), when it co-ruled the country alongside the CDU/CSU, the FDP became unelectable.Regardless of the fact that the party has no representation in the Bundestag and that many prominent activists have left its ranks, the FDP’s new leader, Christian Lindner, has managed to regain the attention of the national media and radically change the party’s image. Back in October 2014, the FDP had deputies in six local parliaments and was not a member of any coalition; at present, however, the FDP has representatives in nine out of 16 local parliaments and is a member of ruling coalitions in Rhineland-Palatinate, North Rhine-Westphalia and Schleswig-Holstein. If the elections to the Bundestag had been held on Sunday, 27 August 2017, the party would have garnered around 8% of the votes. It could also have hoped to form a ruling coalition with the Christian Democrats. A political alliance with the SPD would be less likely. However, should the FDP lose approval in the final weeks of the campaign and fail to bring its representatives into parliament again, it will be extremely difficult for the party to survive for another four years.

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№254 Bezpowrotnie utracona przewidywalność: niemiecka scena partyjna po wyborach

Author(s): Artur Ciechanowicz / Language(s): Polish

Zarówno w samych Niemczech, jak i za granicą komentarze dotyczące wyborów w RFN zdominowane były przez analizę wyników uzyskanych przez antyimigrancką i antyislamską Alternatywę dla Niemiec (AfD), zwłaszcza na wschodzie i południu kraju. To, że partia wejdzie do Bundestagu, było niemal pewne na długo przed 24 września: wynik ugrupowania był tylko nieznacznie lepszy niż w przedwyborczych sondażach. Dużo gorzej niż w badaniach wypadły natomiast dwie partie masowe: CDU/CSU i SPD. I to właśnie ich wyniki mówią więcej o ewolucji politycznych tożsamości niemieckich wyborców oraz są kluczowe w ocenie i przewidywaniu wydarzeń na tamtejszej scenie politycznej. W najbliższej kadencji co prawda nie dojdzie do rozpadu starych partii i powstania w ich miejsce nowych, ale tradycyjne ugrupowania masowe nadal będą tracić bazę wyborczą. Zyskiwać mogą natomiast ideologicznie wyraziste ugrupowania, jak AfD, która będzie opozycją bezkompromisową. Jej obecność w Bundestagu spowoduje, że język debaty publicznej w Niemczech zaostrzy się, a narracje AfD i reszty ugrupowań staną się jeszcze bardziej rozbieżne.

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№258 Moldova’s political theatre. The balance of forces in an election year

Author(s): Kamil Całus / Language(s): English

Since the end of 2015 Vlad Plahotniuc, an oligarch and the richest man in Moldova, leader of the ruling, nominally pro-European Democratic Party, has been de facto the only person who counts in Moldovan politics and business. He is an extremely unpopular politician who has been accused of transforming Moldova into a classic ‘captured state’. However, he has been forced to work with Igor Dodon, the country’s nominally opposition and pro-Russian President, who enjoys the most public trust, as well as with the Socialist party (PSRM) which stands behind him. Both politicians have created a particular system of government which is something like a political cartel[1]. The parties which make it up are conducting a largely superficial ideological-political struggle which stirs up huge emotions and polarises society. The dominant role in the tandem is played by Plahotniuc, who is much more powerful, as he controls the government and the parliamentary majority, and is also the main beneficiary of the current system.However, the system which has been created in Moldova is highly unstable and should be seen as short-term in nature. The greatest threat to Plahotniuc in the near future comes from the parliamentary elections scheduled for the end of 2018. Given the PSRM’s high popularity and the low levels of support for Plahotniuc and his party, the election will probably be won by the Socialists, who could form a parliamentary majority under President Dodon. For this reason, Plahotniuc has been conducting an intense campaign to improve the PDM’s abysmal poll ratings, and is working to undermine the prerogatives of the President. There is no doubt that tensions on the Moldovan political arena will accumulate over the coming months. The upcoming parliamentary elections will decide not only the shape of the current system, but also the business and political future of Vlad Plahotniuc.

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№264 Próba sił. Eskalacja kryzysu w stosunkach rosyjsko-amerykańskich

Author(s): Marek Menkiszak,Witold Rodkiewicz / Language(s): Polish

6 kwietnia amerykańska administracja Donalda Trumpa wprowadziła kolejne, dotkliwe sankcje przeciwko Rosji, które objęły 24 osoby i 14 firm: rosyjskich oligarchów, kontrolowane przez nich koncerny, wysokich urzędników państwowych i szefów państwowych koncernów oraz (ponownie) rosyjski państwowy koncern zbrojeniowy Rosoboroneksport. Ich doraźną konsekwencją ekonomiczną są spadki na rosyjskiej giełdzie i osłabienie rubla oraz problemy finansowe objętych sankcjami firm, szczególnie należących do oligarchy Olega Deripaski. W dłuższej perspektywie rosyjskim oligarchom i ich koncernom, prowadzącym rozległą aktywność za granicą, sankcje utrudnią funkcjonowanie, w rezultacie zwiększy się ich zależność od Kremla. Z drugiej strony Kreml będzie miał rosnące trudności w rekompensowaniu wybranym oligarchom ponoszonych strat, co będzie prowadzić do wzrostu napięć wewnątrz elity i wzrostu społecznego niezadowolenia, co zwiększy koszty funkcjonowania reżimu Putina.

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№269 Samotność Poroszenki. Ukraińska polityka w roku przedwyborczym

Author(s): Tadeusz Iwański / Language(s): Polish

W 2019 roku na Ukrainie wiosną odbędą się wybory prezydenckie, a jesienią – parlamentarne. Bliskość w czasie i sekwencja obu elekcji zwiększy szanse zwycięzcy wyborów prezydenckich na stworzenie największej frakcji w parlamencie. Wstępna faza kampanii wyborczej już się rozpoczęła. Głównymi pretendentami są Petro Poroszenko i Julia Tymoszenko, wyniki sondaży przedwyborczych nie są jednak jednoznaczne. Kampania toczy się w atmosferze nieufności wyborców do władz i klasy politycznej, gdyż rewolucja godności rozbudziła oczekiwania, których politycy nie byli w stanie spełnić.

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