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Hungary’s Reaction to the War in Ukraine

Author(s): Veronika Jóźwiak / Language(s): English

In response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Hungary in principle limits its reaction to adopting EU and NATO decisions. However, the Hungarian government has not taken any actions to sanction Russia on the bilateral level. It does not support Ukraine with equipment and it has announced that it will not allow the EU to deliver “deadly weapons” through its territory. Hungarian state media is repeating Russian disinformation. Russia takes advantage of Hungary’s attitude to indicate divisions in the West over the war in Ukraine.

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Belarus’s Reaction to the Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

From the very beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Belarusian authorities have sided with Russia, supporting it politically and militarily, including making its territory available to the Russian troops. In this way, Belarus is also an aggressor and, as a consequence, the EU and the U.S. have imposed further sanctions on it. Regardless of the attempts to engage in Ukrainian-Russian negotiations, Belarus will be negatively affected by the consequences of its government’s policy and the country, although formally sovereign, has ceased to be perceived as an independent entity in international relations.

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The Question of Russian Aggression against Ukraine at the UN

Author(s): Rafał Tarnogórski / Language(s): English

In response to the Russian attack on Ukraine, an emergency session of the United Nations(UN) General Assembly (UNGA) adopted, under the Uniting for Peace procedure, a resolution condemning this act of aggression. The UNGA called on Russia to cease hostilities and to withdraw unconditionally from the internationally recognised territory of Ukraine.

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No special status, no Armenians? The prospects for Nagorno-Karabakh in a unitary Azerbaijan

Author(s): Wojciech Górecki / Language(s): English

In recent weeks, the Azerbaijani blockade of the Lachin corridor connecting the Armenian-controlled portion of Nagorno-Karabakh with Armenia, which has been in place since mid-December2022, has intensified, and its consequences are becoming increasingly painful: the parastate has been hit by a profound humanitarian crisis. Baku’s main goals are to dismantle the separatist Armenian structures and to fully integrate Nagorno-Karabakh into the Azerbaijani state. If this scenario came to pass, it would most likely prompt a major portion of the Karabakh Armenians to leave, which may effectively be an additional unrevealed goal for Baku. The exodus of this population could pose a serious threat to Armenian prime minister Nikol Pashinyan’s rule. Russian peacekeeping forces, which are responsible for maintaining the corridor’s passability, do not intend to start a conflict with Baku, and have maintained a passive attitude towards the blockade. It should be assumed that they would also not object to Azerbaijan taking over Nagorno-Karabakh, although they could attempt to slow down this process. Since the Second Karabakh War in autumn 2020, the status of Nagorno-Karabakh has not been discussed in the peace talks. The leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan have recognized the territorial integrity of both states within the borders of the respective former Soviet republics, which equates to them approving of Baku’s jurisdiction over Nagorno-Karabakh. However, under pressure from Armenians living in Armenia, in Nagorno-Karabakh and the Armenian diaspora, Pashinyan has raised the issue of the Karabakh Armenians’ rights in international forums (effectively demanding that the Lachin corridor should be unblocked). Thus far, the reaction of the international community has been limited to condemning the blockade.

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Truce in Nagorno-Karabakh

Author(s): Arkadiusz Legieć / Language(s): English

Armenia and Azerbaijan have concluded a truce ending the war in Nagorno-Karabakh, under the auspices of Russia. The agreement constitutes Armenia’s capitulation and provides for the division of the disputed territory on the terms of the victorious Azerbaijani side. This is a diplomatic success for Russia, which forced both sides of the conflict to stop fighting and accept the peace plan.

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Letter by Four Defence Ministers about the Future of European Defence

Author(s): Marcin Terlikowski / Language(s): English

On 30 May, the defence ministers of France, Germany, Italy, and Spain issued a joint letter to Josep Borrell, High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, and their counterparts in the EU Member States. The letter proposes to deepen the recent reforms of the EU’s Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP).

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The Normandy Format Summit - No Real Progress

Author(s): Agnieszka Legucka,Daniel Szeligowski / Language(s): English

The Normandy Format (Ukraine, Russia, Germany, France) summit, held in Paris on 9 December for the first time since 2016, did not bring any breakthrough in the negotiations regarding settling the situation in Donbas. The Russian authorities still lack the political will necessary to end the conflict.

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Unijny plan zwiększenia produkcji amunicji

Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): Polish

23 marca przywódcy państw UE zaakceptowali plan zwiększenia dostaw amunicji artyleryjskiej dla Ukrainy i odbudowy rezerw w Europie. Dzięki temu powinno dojść do uwolnienia niewykorzystanych jeszcze rezerw i przekazania ich Ukrainie oraz zwiększenia produkcji w państwach europejskich. Jest to kolejna inicjatywa pomocy wojskowej UE dla Ukrainy finansowana ze środków Europejskiego Instrumentu na rzecz Pokoju (EPF). Jej powodzenie wymagać będzie dalszego zaangażowania państw członkowskich i instytucji UE, tak aby zmienić dotychczasowy tryb pracy producentów amunicji w Europie.

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Wizyta Joe Bidena w Polsce

Author(s): Mateusz Piotrowski / Language(s): Polish

W dniach 20-22 lutego br., po powrocie z Kijowa, prezydent USA Joe Biden przebywał w Polsce. Wizyta miała na celu podkreślenie roli Polski i państw regionu w zakresie pomocy udzielanej Ukrainie. Kolejny raz zaznaczyła też jedność sojuszu państw demokratycznych trwającą przez rok rosyjskiej agresji oraz ich gotowość do dalszego wsparcia militarnego zwycięstwa Ukrainy.

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A global arms control regime on short and medium-range missiles

Author(s): Matúš Halás / Language(s): English

A global alternative to the former INF Treaty is a feasible solution to the current crisis of the arms control regime that can significantly improve regional stability in Asia. It will not harm vital interests of its signatories provided it will not limit ground-launched delivery vehicles with a range greater than 3,000 km and existing TELs. Given the shifting security environment in Europe, the EU nations should join the German-led development and procurement of an integrated air and missile defence system. The deterrence dynamics also warrant a French-led joint European development and procurement of air-launched cruise missiles with a range greater than 2,000 km.

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How should Europe address Iran’s missile proliferation activities?

Author(s): AZRIEL BERMANT / Language(s): English

One of the criticisms that has been leveled at the Iran nuclear agreement officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) reached with the world powers in 2015 is that it failed to address Iran’s ballistic missiles. The ballistic missile programme provides the means for nuclear delivery should Iran decide to acquire nuclear weapons. Iran’s missile proliferation is particularly destabilizing for the region with detrimental knock-on consequences for Europe. Europe should maintain its pressure on Iran to stop testing missiles that exceed the limits of the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) and transferring missiles to regional proxies. Where Iran continues with its provocations, the EU should impose sanctions on Iranian and third-party organizations involved in the missile programme, reflecting actions it has taken to counter Iran’s human rights abuses. The E3 countries (Britain, France and Germany) should exert their influence to reinforce the EU’s efforts to strengthen coordination with the United States in using diplomatic channels with countries supporting Iran, such as Russia and China, to foster a more robust international response to the missile threat. The EU should also play a leading role in formalizing constraints on the range of Iran’s missiles. In the short-term, such an agreement would seek to prevent Iran from developing missiles that could strike Europe, with the ultimate objective of broadening restrictions on Iran’s missiles as part of a wider regional arrangement.

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The Abraham Accords: a game changer for the region and Europe’s role in it?

Author(s): AZRIEL BERMANT / Language(s): English

The normalization agreements, known as the Abraham Accords, that were signed between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan in 2020, have the potential to strengthen economic integration while also fostering wider regional security partnerships. The deepening of regional ties could pave the way for broader cooperation propelling joint efforts in addressing issues such as energy security and climate change. The normalization agreements present new opportunities for cooperation not only for the region but also beyond it, including for the European Union. Yet the Abraham Accords are facing a number of challenges which could constrain the expansion of the normalization process. There is a disparity in how the political elites and the broader Arab public view the Abraham Accords. Furthermore, the new Israeli government led by prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu includes several members that hold extreme positions on issues such as the Palestinian question and the status of holy sites in Jerusalem. The new government is liable to take actions that could heighten regional tensions and damage the normalization process. The Abraham Accords are popular in Israel. The UAE, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan and other countries in the region have a unique opportunity to influence the new Netanyahu government and the wider Israeli public by linking progress on normalization to Israel stopping harmful policies that damage the long-term prospects of peace with the Palestinians. The EU has expressed measured support for the Abraham Accords, but it should actively encourage these states and potential new signatories to the accords to condition progress on Israel stopping counter-productive policies which could lead to a serious escalation in the region.

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The Syrian Safe Zone and International Law

Author(s): Bríd Ní Ghráinne / Language(s): English

On Wednesday 9 October 2019, Turkey launched a cross-border operation in Northern Syria. Turkey justified its actions as a response to an ‘imminent terrorist threat’ from Kurdish-led forces. Its operation was directed at pushing back these groups from its border and creating a ‘safe zone’ in Syria where up to two million Syrian refugees can be resettled. This reflection aims to assess (i) whether the Turkish operation to establish the safe zone was lawful; and (ii) whether the resettlement of Syrian refugees in the safe zone is in conformity with international law.

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Will the validity of the last US-Russia arms-control treaty, the new start treaty, be extended?

Author(s): Miroslav Tůma / Language(s): English

The official title of the New START Treaty is the Treaty between the United States of America and the Russian Federation on Measures for the further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms. The ten-year validity of the Treaty with expire on February 5, 2021, though there is the possibility of its extension for a further five years. The key question is whether both participating countries will agree with the mentioned extension. If not, more than 90% of the nuclear weapons in their possession (out of the total number of ca. 13,900 weapons) will not be subject to any arms-control limitation for the first time since 1972.

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The Nuclear Arms Control and Disarmament Waiting

Author(s): Miroslav Tůma / Language(s): English

The reflection deals with the current state of the nuclear arms control and disarmament process with a stressing on the role of the Biden administrationʼs security policy. The policy follows the Interim National Security Strategic Guidance (INSSG) of March 2021 till the summaries of the new relevant security documents, i.e. the National Defense Strategy (NDS) and the Nuclear Posture Review (NPR), will be published early next year. The reflection deals also with the US-Russia strategic dialogue, the current development in the effort to reach the Korean Peninsulaʼs denuclearization and the restoration of the US participation in the so-called Iranian nuclear deal (JCPOA). The final part of the reflection pays attention to some of the main factors of the USʼs internal and international policy that could influence the implementation of the declared intentions of the above mentioned security documents.

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Ukraine 2022: Russia's nuclear sabre-rattling

Author(s): Not Specified Author / Language(s): English

With the Russian-Ukrainian war entering its eighth month and a stalemate along the front lines, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered on September 21, 2022, the first military mobilization in the country since World War II, warning the West that if it continued what he called its “nuclear blackmail” Moscow would respond with the might of all its vast arsenal. “If the territorial integrity of our country is threatened, we will use all available means to protect our people - this is not a bluff,” Putin said in in his speech, which was broadcast on Russian television.

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Ukraine 2022: The war in Ukraine or “the special military operation in Ukraine”?

Author(s): Corneliu Pivariu / Language(s): English

On February 24 2022, around 5 AM Moscow time, on Vladimir Putin’s order the Russian army launched an unprovoked war against Ukraine. There is no chance for us to fall into Kremlin’s propagandistic trap and accept circumventing the term war for this aggression and use Moscow’s expression. The re-invasion Russia launched on ground, from the air and from the sea is the largest attack of a state against another state in Europe after the WWII. The 2014 invasion should not be forgotten and that is why we used the term re-invasion which is, otherwise, coming across in the international media.

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Putin’s War – 5; etc.

Author(s): J Scott Younger / Language(s): English

The war in Ukraine, Putin’s war, is now over 100 days old and reaching a point of stalemate. One day the Russians have made small gains in the Donbas, the eastern border lands of Ukraine, and in the next day or so we hear that they have been stopped and pushed back. In the meantime, the promised more powerful armaments, with a bigger range, from Britain, the US and from some European countries, are coming on stream, albeit late and slowly, and these may, should push the Russians back. One hopes so that it is more than just talk. Sergei Lavrov, the Russian Foreign Minister is not at all pleased at this development of the west’s support for what maybe in a short time a member of the EU, and warns of an escalation of activities. Perhaps that is a risk Ukraine has to take in order to take back the lands lost.

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Ukraine 2022: A Test for the EU and NATO

Author(s): Not Specified Author / Language(s): English

The aggression of Russia on the Ukraine is an event that will mark the future of Europe as well as the global international order. A week after the beginning of the aggression on the Ukraine by Putin’s regime, some of the aspects and characteristics of this military expedition are very obvious and noticeable, along with their international dimensions, reactions and parallels from history. The most important is the fact that a military operation, a war, is going on, what is without comparison in the modern European history after the end of the Cold War. The aggression and the consequent war present a ruthless, brutal and consciousness breach and neglect of a range of international legal, humanitarian and other rules that regulate relations between sovereign and independent states in international relations. Hence, the aggression is a military act, a precedence that has to be stopped and brought to a standstill, the international mediation and negotiation should be introduced, peace agreement has to be concluded and the responsible persons have to be brought to justice, processed for military crimes they did. European and world political, diplomatic, legal and military history have many tools at disposal for these actions. Here, also lessons learned from the recent past from the dissolution of former Yugoslavia, are highly useful for processing war criminals, as the International Court of Justice in the Hague can serve.

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Putin’s War - 2

Author(s): J Scott Younger / Language(s): English

The past ten days has seen an intensification of the war in Ukraine, with over 1½ million Ukrainians having fled their homes and crossed the border to sanctuary in neighbouring countries of Eastern Europe. Meanwhile, Vladimir Putin says it is not a war or invasion, but just a cleansing of a corrupt, neo-Nazi government of drug addicts, and if any Russian dissent they are liable to be punished and some of those caught are being jailed with unwarranted stiff sentences. Several thousand Russian citizens have joined with those of other countries to protest and risked their being arrested. Who is Putin kidding? He is a rat in a tight corner and just as or more dangerous. Who is going to stop his nonsense? The western countries? His own people?

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