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№177: NATO Deterrence and Arms Control Policy in a World without the INF Treaty

Author(s): Artur Kacprzyk,Łukasz Kulesa,Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2020

To maintain effective deterrence and internal cohesion in a post-INF Treaty world, especially in the face of the growing Russian missile threat to Europe, NATO needs to act in two areas. To enhance its military posture, the Alliance ought to quickly mobilise available defensive and offensive capabilities, plan and exercise their use, and be ready to further adjust its posture in the future. This includes studying the military rationale to deploy conventionally armed ground-launched intermediate-range missiles. To adapt its arms-control policy, NATO members should identify Russia’s most destabilising missile systems, both existing and prospective, and propose arms-control initiatives aimed at limiting them. Although the likelihood of achieving new agreements with Russia is currently low, a more proactive NATO arms-control position could help shape the discussion in the longer term and counter Russian efforts to divide the Alliance.

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№2: ISAF Operation in Afghanistan and the Future of NATO – Time for Change

Author(s): Łukasz Kulesa / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2008

It is often stated that the mission in Afghanistan cannot be won using only military means. It can surely be lost, however, due to a failure of military performance by NATO and due to unrealistic operation goals. The Alliance currently faces two major challenges. The first has to do with the reluctance of some of the Allies to commit troops to counter-insurgency tasks. Without a major change in the Afghan policies of Germany, France, Italy, Spain and Greece, NATO will face a series of ‘blackmail crises’, when countries engaged in the south and east of the country threaten to withdraw their forces unless they are replaced or given additional support. It seems certain that NATO is going to manage successfully its first blackmail crisis, caused by Canada’s justifiable demand for an additional 1,000 troops for Kandahar (it appears that support has been offered by the United States, France and Poland). However, the ability to placate the displeased Allies on an ad hoc basis is limited, and a more fundamental change of policy is necessary.

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№22: Not As Smart As It Could Be: the NATO Smart Defence Initiative—Chicago and Beyond

Author(s): Marcin Terlikowski / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2012

Prompted by austerity-driven cuts in defence budgets and calls by the U.S. to distribute the burden for common defence more evenly across the Atlantic, for the last 15 months NATO members have been developing the Smart Defence Initiative. Launched by Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen in February 2011, the initiative aims to “pool and share capabilities, to set the right priorities, and to better coordinate our efforts”. In other words, it is about seeking opportunities for more intense and cost-effective defence cooperation amongst the Allies. The NATO summit in Chicago delivered the first results as a multitude of cooperative projects was endorsed by the Allies in the so-called “Chicago Defence Package”. It involves the exchange of experiences and lessons learnt, joint education and training of forces, the bundling of military assets such as airplanes, as well as joint NATO-wide investment programmes to develop state-of-the-art defence systems.

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№23: How to Upgrade Poland’s Approach to the Western Balkans? Ideas for the Polish Presidency of the V4

Author(s): Tomasz Żornaczuk / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2012

Ever since the European Union expressed its commitment and support to the Western Balkans states’ ambitions to join the Community, the region has for years constituted the central scene for EU enlargement and Common Foreign and Security Policy. Yet, some of the Balkan countries also wish to be included in NATO. Processes linked to accession to both organisations have shown that each country differs in its development and willingness to reform and that there are political difficulties regardless of these countries’ attitudes towards the EU or NATO. These factors make the Balkan agenda exceptionally complex and the relationship between the states and the EU and NATO filled with a range of ups and downs.

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№24: Republicans on U.S. Foreign Policy: Romney’s Reluctant Embrace of Neoconservatism

Author(s): Bartosz Wiśniewski / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2012

If positions taken by a presidential candidate during the campaign are any indications of the kind of policies that would be implemented in case of electoral success, then Republican Mitt Romney’s foreign and security policy agenda could be labeled as neoconservative. On the campaign trail, Romney has repeatedly invoked or alluded to concepts associated with this strand of Republican thinking about the United States’ role in the world, including so-called moral clarity as a key foreign policy driver, unrivalled military capabilities, seeking and ensuring maximum freedom to manoeuvre for a transformative (if not revolutionary) global strategy without displaying too much deference to multilateralism, standing up to (as opposed to seeking accommodation with) America’s rivals, and preempting growing threats to national security to prevent them from becoming full-blown crises.

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№26: Libya and Syria: Responsibility to Protect at a Crossroads

Author(s): Rafał Tarnogórski / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2012

The Arab Spring, especially the developments in Libya and Syria, revealed the persistent problem of a lack of appropriate and legally acceptable measures the international community could use to intervene in specific countries where people die because of violent acts by the authorities there. Although Responsibility to Protect (R2P) is seen as a new idea, it can be regarded as a manifestation of a trend that has already begun to affect the present but will have a major impact in the future. When the intervention in Libya started, it seemed that the importance of R2P would grow and exert increasing influence on international relations. The real significance of the UN response to the Libyan crisis was that for the first time the implementation and representation in practice of the R2P concept became real. However, it is quite clear now that the current Syrian crisis can serve as a catalyst for discussion on the necessary conditions for a military intervention, thus either strengthening the underlying trend of R2P or blocking it for years.

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№28: Arms Control During Obama’s Second Term: What May the U.S. Want and How Can Europeans Contribute?

Author(s): Jacek Durkalec,Łukasz Kulesa / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2013

During his second term in office, U.S. President Barack Obama is likely to continue the implementation of his ambitious arms control agenda. In the European context, this will require further work on the redefinition of the extended deterrence relationship with the European NATO allies, which currently involves U.S. nuclear weapons stationed in Europe. However, the programme of work cannot be limited to the nuclear file, as at present in Europe both missile defence and conventional arms remain important subjects, both in need of innovative arms control approaches. The role of Europeans does not have to be limited to merely supporting U.S. actions. They can provide their ideas and also take a leadership role in some areas. The lack of a unified position of Europeans can, however, block or obstruct U.S. initiatives.

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№34: Rethinking Conventional Arms Control in Europe: A Transparency-Centred Approach

Author(s): Jacek Durkalec / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2013

Conventional arms control in Europe is not functioning as it should, which has led to a lower level of military predictability and confidence on the continent. There is a need for new thinking on how to restore a functional conventional arms control mechanism and update it to the current realities. It is worth thorough consideration whether the modern conventional arms control system can be based solely on transparency measures without any numerical, qualitative or geographical limitations. Such a transparency-centred approach may offer a promising path forward to building an enduring platform that would maintain trust in Europe.

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№4: The European Army – How to Do It Right?

Author(s): Marcin Terlikowski / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2008

The current difficulties in the European Union, caused by the result of the Irish referendum, show that bold projects regarding European integration can be misunderstood and cause serious concerns. One of such initiatives is the idea of a European Army, which is likely to trigger equally ardent discussions. Hence, we propose to look at the issue from a different perspective. The idea of a European Army dates back to the beginning of the European integration process of the 1950s. Even though the Pleven plan collapsed, other projects, aiming to create joint European military capabilities, were later discussed regularly (e.g. attempts to reactivate the Western European Union in the 1980s). Today, almost a decade since the European Security and Defence Policy (ESDP) was launched, the discussion on the EU’s military capabilities is more dynamic than ever before. The reason is simple: the actual shape of the ESDP does not live up to the growing demand for a more active European Union made by many EU member states as well as by other significant actors in international relations.

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№46: Split Three Ways on Ukraine: Turkey in a Changing Regional Order

Author(s): Pinar Elman / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2014

With its low-level involvement in response to Russia’s annexation of Crimea, Ankara repeated its customary formula of refraining from disrupting relations with Moscow, but also sought to maximise the benefits from its position, in order to recover its declining power. Yet this is not a voluntary strategy, so much as an effort by Turkey to make the best of a bad hand. The crisis between Russia and the West affects Turkey’s security concerns, economic interests and wider domestic and foreign policy ambitions. Although non-involvement has so far carried few direct costs, Turkey needs to leverage its low-profile position, not least to ensure NATO solidarity, and indeed might soften its position in internal NATO debates. And yet this might in turn create a new conflict of interests: Turkey needs to maintain its soft power capacities, not least in order to hook into the EU, while the EU needs to deepen Turkey’s integration in order to develop a cohesive answer to the new circumstances.

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№51: Careful What You Wish For: Nuclear Reductions and Conventional Deterrence in Europe after Crimea

Author(s): Łukasz Kulesa / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2014

As NATO contemplates changes in its deterrence posture amid Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, questions regarding the relationship between the Alliance’s nuclear and conventional dimensions have gained importance. Some experts propose that the Allies should spend their scarce funds on conventional instruments of deterrence rather than on the U.S. nuclear weapons based in Europe. Still, the suggested shift of emphasis from nuclear to conventional would not be that easy to implement. Even with U.S. nuclear weapons removed from Europe, strengthening conventional deterrence in parallel could result in Russia increasing its reliance on its own nuclear weapons and bringing them closer to Alliance territory, further destabilising European security. Therefore, NATO should avoid making radical changes in its nuclear posture and concentrate on a calibrated beef-up of its nonnuclear presence along the eastern flank.

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№56: NATO Narrows Military Gap on Its Eastern Flank

Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2014

The decisions taken during the NATO summit in Wales will partially fill the security gaps on NATO’s eastern flank. The alliance will be better prepared for a number of traditional and asymmetric threats, emanating from Russia, against its members. However, the alliance has no answer for the strategic change caused by annexation of Crimea and possible dismemberment of the rest of Ukraine. NATO will also remain vulnerable to attempts to undermine its credibility—a path Russia may embark upon in pursuit of its broader strategic goals.

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№58: China’s Evolving Stance on Afghanistan: Towards More Robust Diplomacy with “Chinese Characteristics”

Author(s): Justyna Szczudlik-Tatar / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2014

On the eve of the withdrawal of NATO troops from Afghanistan, China is modifying its so-far lukewarm policy towards this country. The potential for a security vacuum after 2014 has raised China’s concerns about the situation in Afghanistan and its effects on the region, including possible terrorist attacks, an influx of militants, inter-ethnic fights, cross-border crime and more, all of which may have a negative impact on China’s security and domestic stability. These possible threats have forced the PRC to adopt a more proactive approach towards Afghanistan. The scope of tools is wide, and include the appointment of China’s first special envoy to Afghanistan, and a rising level of Chinese engagement in various international mechanisms focused on regional security. It creates a chance for the EU, to cooperate with Beijing on security issues.

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№6: NATO after the Georgian Conflict: A New Course or Business as Usual?

Author(s): Marek Madej / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2009

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization, unlike the European Union, could not have played a mediating role in the Russian-Georgian conflict. This was primarily dictated by the position of Russia, which was opposed to NATO involvement in the region and which saw NATO as a de facto party to the conflict. Georgia, on the other hand, has long expected an unequivocal decision by the Alliance concerning its Atlantic aspirations and membership, not to mention NATO’s immediate support for its position in the conflict. This placed NATO in an exceptionally delicate situation as a mediator, especially if one considers the Alliance’s present members’ diverging views on the question of Georgia’s NATO membership and their doubts and differing assessments of the causes of the conflict and where to lay the blame for its outbreak.

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№60: Remote and Autonomous: From Drones to “Killer Robots”

Author(s): Maria Radziejowska / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2014

While Poland is only sketching out its national UAV programme, the international community has already embarked on discussions about the legality of autonomous weapons systems. The case against “killer robots” has been brought into the Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons forum. Transparent and common standards for the legal review of such weapons could balance the risks associated with their future illegal use. Before deciding whether to ban autonomous weapons systems and their development, there is a need to reach greater clarity on the understanding of autonomy and the level of human supervision over these systems in light of the existing legal framework. Autonomous robotic systems will continue to be developed for a variety of purposes.

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№64: Norwegian and Polish Security Sector Reform Experiences from Afghanistan

Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz,Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2015

In the coming decade, NATO and EU security is likely to be challenged by the ongoing conflicts and potential instability in different parts of Eastern Europe, the Balkans, the Middle East and North Africa. Both organisations are capable of supporting stability through different forms of cooperation with their partners but they could improve their impact significantly by closer collaboration. One of the most promising platforms for such a unity of effort could be Security Sector Reform (SSR)—a vital measure for building sustainable peace. Both NATO and the EU could use the experience of Norway, a NATO member, and Poland, a member of both the EU and NATO and a country that contributed significant military and civilian resources to the stability and development of Afghanistan between 2001 and 2014. Although the precise results of the SSR process in Afghanistan remain contested, the lessons hard learnt by both countries should be regarded as a noteworthy asset, not least when it comes to building closer cooperation between Poland and Norway during future SSR missions.

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№66: Poland and France: The (Un)Limited Strategic Partnership

Author(s): Nathan Dufour,Marcin Terlikowski / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2015

Very optimistic declarations regarding the possible emergence of a new Franco-Polish engine in security and defence matters seem to a great extent unrealistic. Both countries differ too much to become the closest allies in the EU, from the size of their militaries and defence industries to strategic culture. In addition, the short-term posture adopted by both players in response to the multi-layered repercussions of the Ukrainian crisis means that both Poland and France are having a hard time envisaging the next steps forward. This being said, exploring the reasons why these two key European defence players are willing to cooperate can only help both partners to get the most out of it. There are some areas in which the Franco-Polish duo can, and should, achieve a lot.

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№7: Reduce US Nukes in Europe to Zero, and Keep NATO Strong (and Nuclear). A View from Poland

Author(s): Łukasz Kulesa / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2009

The nuclear dimension of NATO is rarely front page news, and this is no less the case in Poland than it is in other member states. While prominent as the central subject of a number of heated intra-Alliance debates during the Cold War, in recent years the question of nuclear weapons has disappeared from the NATO agenda, dominated as it is by issues of enlargement, military transformation, and the Alliance’s increasing involvement in out-of-area operations. In fact, an overwhelming majority of the citizenry of all NATO countries would be surprised to learn of the existence of any nuclear element in the Alliance, including the citizens of those European allies whose air forces have been training to drop US-made thermonuclear gravity bombs in wartime.

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№74: Out of the Comfort Zone: Russia and the Nuclear Deal with Iran

Author(s): Patrycja Sasnal,Stanislav Secrieru / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2015

Beyond the headline-making S-300 missile deal, the international nuclear agreement with Iran poses a multifaceted strategic dilemma for Russia. Iran’s potential de-isolation will necessitate a speeded-up rebranding of Russia and more policy acrobatics, among which reacting to the new dynamics in the energy market will be the most challenging. It is becoming imperative for Moscow not to close options in the Middle East: adopt softer stances, make obscure moves, and avoid camps, especially the Iran- Syria one. In the post-Soviet neighbourhood, Iran’s clout, powered by a probable cycle of economic growth, is likely to increase, pushing Russia to make adjustments as well. While preoccupied by softly limiting Iran’s influence, Russia might use the de-isolation of Iran to legitimise the Eurasian Economic Union, seal off the Caspian Sea from the West and keep the rising Chinese influence in Central Asia in check.

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№81: China’s Security Activities Extend beyond Asia

Author(s): Justyna Szczudlik-Tatar / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2015

China’s increasing global engagement requires an adjustment of the security mindset and new securityrelated instruments to safeguard against expanding Chinese interests overseas. Under Xi Jinping, the PRC has modified its military strategy, highlighting a new dimension of security threats (e.g., cyberspace), paying more attention to the country’s navy and air forces and in developing capabilities to win information wars along with centralising decision-making. Under these circumstances, China’s security activities extend beyond Asia and may lead to tension or even conflicts. But there are also opportunities. The PRC’s growing interests in Europe, Africa and the Middle East mean the EU may be able to cooperate with China on such security issues as the refugee crisis and fighting terrorism.

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