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The Difficult Beginnings of the European Public Prosecutor’s Office

Author(s): Stefania Kolarz / Language(s): English

The smooth functioning of the European Public Prosecutor’s Office (EPPO) is important to fill the gap in the protection of EU finances and to strengthen cooperation between national prosecutors’ offices. Its activities will enable the unprecedented involvement of the EU in domestic proceedings related to violations of the EU budget, including by bringing such violations and indictments before the courts of the Member States. However, the effectiveness of the EPPO will depend on the introduction of appropriate regulations and active cooperation with its officers at the national level. Along with only moderate enthusiasm of many Member States, the EPPO will from the outset face the difficult task of proving the added value of guiding its officials to national systems.

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EU Sanctions for Disinformation Campaigns: Prospects and Limits

Author(s): Elżbieta Kaca / Language(s): English

The EU has faced a growing number of foreign disinformation operations, mainly instigated by Russia and China. The European Commission (EC) is considering a sanctions system in response to such attacks. Its would, however, be limited by technical difficulties in detecting the sources of such operations and Member States’ divergent views as to the scale of retaliation. From Poland’s perspective as a country supportive of using sanctions in EU external relations, such a solution would strengthen the EU’s response to Russian and Chinese hostile actions.

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The Significance of the Energy Charter Treaty and Perspective for Reform

Author(s): Bartosz Bieliszczuk,Szymon Zaręba / Language(s): English

The Energy Charter Treaty (ECT) allows energy companies to protect their foreign investments in fossil fuels, among others. It is controversial, though, because the treaty makes it difficult for its parties to implement ambitious climate policy and decarbonise their economies. The current debate on reforming the ECT creates an opportunity to amend the treaty to better fit the EU’s - and Poland’s - needs. However, if the negotiations are delayed further, it would be advisable to abandon the treaty.

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Not only Donbas: Ukraine in German Foreign Policy

Author(s): Adam S. Czartoryski,Lidia Gibadło / Language(s): English

Since 2014, the priority of Germany’s policy towards Ukraine has remained to stabilise the situation in its eastern regions. At the same time, Ukraine’s importance has gone beyond the conflict in the Donbas: it is increasingly becoming an element of the realisation of Germany’s European and global interests and a target of German investments, especially in the energy sector. This evolution will be favoured by a change of the ruling coalition in Germany, which may occur after the Bundestag elections.

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EU Proposes Artificial Intelligence Regulation

Author(s): Stefania Kolarz,Oskar Szydłowski / Language(s): English

The proposed regulation of artificial intelligence (AI) on the EU market is primarily intended to protect fundamental rights and values. As the first regulation of this type in the world, it may set the standard. However, the new requirements in practice might hinder the access of foreign entities to the internal market and reduce the competitiveness of EU businesses.

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Schengen After the Crises: New Strategy and Challenges

Author(s): Jolanta Szymańska / Language(s): English

After the shocks caused by the migration-management crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, the European Commission (EC) initiated reforms in Schengen. The new strategy aims at rebuilding trust between states and gradually lifting border restrictions. This process will be hampered by the continued public health threat, as well as the deadlock in the discussion on reform of migration policy, in particular the asylum system.

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A Technological Arms Race: Chip Manufacturing

Author(s): Oskar Szydłowski / Language(s): English

The supply gap in the chip market caused by the COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the chips’ growing role in the global economy, as well as in international relations. Countries where chipmakers are headquartered are restricting exports of this good, and the competition for access to these products has opened a new phase in the technology race between China and the U.S. Currently, the U.S. is emerging victorious, significantly limiting China’s ability to modernise. The European Union plans to cooperate with Taiwan and the U.S. on chip supplies and is working on production technology.

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The Biden Administration’s Vaccine Diplomacy

Author(s): Andrzej Dąbrowski / Language(s): English

The United States has begun redistributing procured SARS-CoV-2 vaccines to countries affected by a shortage of doses. The U.S. joined the international COVAX initiative and declared it would provide 500 million doses to it by the end of 2022. The goal of U.S. diplomacy is to improve the country’s image on the international stage and compete with China, which uses vaccines to strengthen its relations with African and Latin American countries.

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EU Increasing Its Commitment to the Protection of Cultural Heritage in Conflicts

Author(s): Aleksandra KOZIOŁ / Language(s): English

In June, the Council of the EU endorsed the “Concept on Cultural Heritage in Conflicts and Crises”, developed by the European External Action Service (EEAS). It sets specific political goals for the Union to strengthen its soft power and contribute to building lasting peace in conflict-affected areas. However, its implementation will require coherence in the Union’s external action as well as the adoption of specific guidelines for the protection of cultural heritage during EU civilian missions and operations.

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Regional Consequences of the Taliban’s Takeover of Afghanistan

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

The Taliban seizure of Kabul will affect the largest countries in the region in various ways. Pakistan is the main winner, while India finds itself in the worst situation. However, the biggest beneficiary could be China, which may gain access to Afghanistan’s minerals and implement its Belt and Road Initiative there. Most countries in the region believe that if the Taliban were to introduce a government approved by the majority of the population and control the entire territory, the new situation may bring more opportunities than threats. However, this requires the Taliban to restrict the activities of terrorist organisations and Afghanistan’s neighbours to recognise the new government.

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Politics prevails – Israel’s trade relations with the European Union

Author(s): Karolina Zielińska / Language(s): English

The European Union’s trade relations with Israel are asymmetrical, but the overall volume of their trade in goods and services has been growing rapidly. The EU is Israel’s top partner in this field, while Israel ranks outside the top 30 of the EU’s biggest partners; the EU has a positive trade balance with this country. This state of affairs has turned trade into a potential political instrument, but its assertive use by the EU with respect to the Palestinian issue has failed to bring about any change in Israel’s policy towards the occupied territories. Instead, Israel’s resistance to the EU’s policy on this issue has led to a freeze in the institutional development of trade relations, especially in the services and investment sectors. The EU and especially Israel could benefit from a further liberalisation in bilateral relations and its extension to their partners in the region, but political factors are hampering this process. Therefore, a breakthrough in the form of launching negotiations on an agreement to create a deep and comprehensive free trade area appears unlikely in the foreseeable future.

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The International Consequences of the Military Coup in Guinea

Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep / Language(s): English

On 5 September, the Guinean special forces overthrew President Alpha Condé, who recently entered his third term following controversial constitutional changes. This is the third coup in Africa this year. The uncertainty in the country, which is one of the world’s largest bauxite producers, has caused record increases in aluminium prices on world markets and concerns among importers, but mainly Russia and China.

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Italian Economic Recovery Plan

Author(s): Maciej Pawłowski / Language(s): English

Italy has started to rebuild its economy, which has fallen into deep recession because of the COVID-19 pandemic. The government wants to achieve this goal through infrastructure investments, export and tourism support, and temporary legalisation of stay and employment of migrants. Part of these activities will be financed with funds from the new EU budget. The government’s economic recovery plan also presents an opportunity to reform the country, which increases the potential of an agreement on the shape of the EU budget, the multiannual financial framework (MFF) 2021-2027.

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Ukraine’s Foreign Policy in President Zelensky’s First Year

Author(s): Maciej Zaniewicz / Language(s): English

The foreign policy of Ukraine during the presidency of Volodymyr Zelensky is characterised by the continuation of integration with NATO and the EU and the aim to end the conflict in Donbas. Compared to his predecessor, Petro Poroshenko, Zelensky takes a more pragmatic stance, confirmed by greater flexibility during talks with Russia. However, Ukraine’s concessions to Russia have not resulted in progress in resolving the conflict. Sectoral integration with the EU may, in turn, be delayed by the economic crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

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Consequences of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Central Asia

Author(s): Arkadiusz Legieć / Language(s): English

The economic crisis in Central Asia resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic will degrade the security situation in the region. Among the consequences of the recession will be the intensification of anti-government protests and increased ethnic tensions, added migration pressure from the region and greater activity of terrorist organisations. By using Russia’s passivity towards the pandemic, China will seek to increase its influence in the sphere of security in Central Asia.

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Russia’s Arctic Policy

Author(s): Agnieszka Legucka / Language(s): English

Russia views the Arctic as a contested area with the U.S. and a place of competition with China. It regards any loss of its dominant position as the most important challenge in the Arctic region. To counteract it, Russia develops energy, military, and logistics infrastructure in the region. Although the role of transport in the Arctic, along the Northern Sea Route (NSR), is limited for now, the increased Russian military presence in the region is already a challenge for the security of NATO countries.

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Political and Economic Consequences of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Romania

Author(s): Jakub Pieńkowski / Language(s): English

On 16 June, a Romania’s “state of alarm” was prolonged for a month by the Ludovic Orban minority government. The pandemic has prevented his National Liberal Party (PNL) from holding early parliamentary elections, which, given the popularity of the formation, would be expected to allow it majority rule. The largest opposition force, the Social Democratic Party (PSD), could build a coalition in the current parliament but refuses to take power during the crisis. The government has provided temporary support for Romanian companies and announced an economic reconstruction programme that may incorporate aspects of the European Commission’s Next Generation EU initiative. The consequences of the pandemic will hamper Romania’s adoption of the euro.

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U.S. Enacts Sanctions to Stop ICC Proceedings

Author(s): Szymon Zaręba / Language(s): English

An executive order issued by U.S. President Donald Trump on 11 June imposes sanctions on those engaged in the activities of the International Criminal Court (ICC) directed against members of U.S. or allied personnel. It is a blow to international criminal justice that will impede or may even prevent the ICC from investigating crimes in Afghanistan and Palestine. The sanctions can also potentially affect Polish citizens or entities, creating tension in Polish-American relations.

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Clean Gas: Prospects of Hydrogen Energy Development in the EU

Author(s): Bartosz Bieliszczuk / Language(s): English

Hydrogen is a non-polluting gas, which, by replacing natural gas, would contribute to decarbonising the EU’s industry. The development of the hydrogen sector is related not only with climate policy but also with the industrial strategy and it will require, for example, forging regulations and making investments both in hydrogen production capacities and a transmission network. The above issues will be a challenge for Poland’s industrial and foreign policy.

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Chorwacja na drodze do przyjęcia euro

Author(s): Tomasz Żornaczuk / Language(s): English

W lipcu br. Chorwacja przystąpiła do mechanizmu kursów walutowych (ERM II) poprzedzającego członkostwo w strefie euro. Rząd, tak jak opozycja i większość opinii publicznej, widzi we wspólnej walucie więcej korzyści niż zagrożeń i wskazuje na możliwość jej wprowadzenia w 2023 r. Jednak, mimo braku przeszkód politycznych, prawdopodobnie nastąpi to później ze względu na problemy gospodarcze Chorwacji, przede wszystkim nadmierny dług publiczny, które pogłębiają się wskutek recesji spowodowanej pandemią COVID-19.

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