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The signing of the Association Agreement with the European Union on 27 June 2014 is the Republic of Moldova’s greatest achievement since gaining independence. The signing of this document is a chance for the Republic of Moldova to get out of Europe’s “grey zone” and join the group of civilized countries. The Association Agreement between the Republic of Moldova and the European Union will bring the relations between our state and the EU to a qualitatively new, updated and adjusted level and allow the Republic of Moldova to move past the post-Soviet period.
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At a time when transatlantic commitments are widely focused on the Syrian crisis and the need for coordinated policies to counter the economic and debt crises, a reading of the European Strategy for Central Asia and equivalent US texts reveal the limited coordination of Western policies in the region. This often is more a matter of a mutual ignorance than of disagreements on the motives of the US and European involvement. Meetings on Central Asia between senior European and US officials are rare, except for those between the EU Special Representative for Central Asia and the US Under Secretary for the region. Meanwhile, mutual knowledge of the actions of US and European governments and public administration in Central Asia is minimal. US policy toward Central Asia is handled by a diversity of actors – the Defense Department, the State Department, USAID, and Congress – which do not share necessarily the same priorities.
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As the period of reconstruction and stabilisation draws to a close, the Western Balkans is facing a looming crisis of social and economic dislocation which puts at risk some of the European Union’s most important interests in this strategic region. The crisis is emerging just as existing European assistance is being scaled down, and just as the countries of the region find themselves excluded from the European enlargement process. If the region is not to become an island of instability within the European project, existing European policy instruments need to evolve into a genuine and long-term commitment to address the region’s chronic economic and social problems. The European Union should send a strong signal to the countries of the Western Balkans that the promise of Europeanisation is not an illusion.
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This record challenges the image of a dysfunctional country dominated by elites incapable of compromise. It underlines the force of EU soft power, if used in the right way. Recent months have shown that when there is a real incentive and credible conditionality, based on European standards, things can move forward surprisingly quickly. 2009 might yet see a fundamental turning point in Bosnia's history: the end of the international protectorate (and of the mandate of the Office of the High Representative) and the promise to overcome the visa fence that continues to isolate the country. || In May 2009 the European Commission was strict. Now that Bosnia has delivered on its commitment, will European institutions be fair? Before this recent breakthrough, the Commission was looking at mid-2010 as a possible date for a Commission proposal to lift the visa obligation for Bosnia and Herzegovina’s citizens, provided that all conditions are met. Due to the lengthy EU decision-making process on visa policy, which requires an opinion by the European Parliament on the Commission proposal followed by a vote in the Council, this would mean that visa-free travel would become a reality around October/November next year – one year from now. || This is too late. Bosnia deserves that to be rewarded for its achievements earlier. European Enlargement Commissioner promised Bosnia and Albania that “the speed of these countries’ progress towards visa-free travel is in the hands of their own leaders.” The leaders have done their part of the deal – now it is up to the Commission to deliver on its commitment.
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In the past year Moldova has been praised by European leaders for its reforms. Speaking at the EU-Moldova forum in October 2012, EU Enlargement Commissioner Stefan Füle called Moldova “the Eastern Partnership’s most dependable model student.”1 He added: “From an uncertain supporter of the Eastern Partnership, it has turned into its most prominent member, into a staunchly committed and reliable partner.” || Moldova’s poverty is structural: it is too rural, and produces too few things that people in other countries might want to buy. For it to catch up huge changes are needed – investments in infrastructure, in agriculture, in industry, in the skills of its people. For this to happen there is a need for both confidence in the future and a clear sense of direction. This has happened before, though, and Moldovans can look across the Prut to see the effects of such a perspective. Will there be a similar perspective for them soon? || The prospects of obtaining visa-free travel and signing the Association Agreement and DCFTA soon are both good news. At the same time Moldova desperately needs economic development and increased foreign direct investment. For this a clear long-term EU membership perspective would be crucial. If the EU wants Moldova to become a true success story in the Eastern neighbourhood, it should be prepared to go further.
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EU assistance for refugees in Turkey is one of the provisions of the EU-Turkey Statement that is being implemented successfully. Turkey currently hosts around 4 million refugees of whom 3.6 million are Syrians. The EU promised a total of 6 billion Euro – 3 billion for 2016/17 and another 3 billion for 2018/19 – to help these refugees. Out of the total, 4 billion come from the EU budget and 2 billion from EU member states based on their GNI. The aid focuses on humanitarian assistance (46%), education (28%), health (15%), municipal infrastructure (schools, health services, water supply, sewage systems, waste disposal) and socio-economic support (skills development, training). The vast majority of the projects are implemented by international organisations such as the World Food Programme, UNICEF, UNHCR and the Danish Refugee Council, among many others.
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Since the spring of 2005, when the proposed European Constitutional Treaty was rejected in referenda in France and the Netherlands, debate on the drawbacks of enlargement has gained in intensity. Senior politicians across Europe have called for a slow-down, freeze or even a permanent halt to enlargement.3 Voices opposing enlargement regularly make headlines, creating the impression that the future of enlargement is hanging in the balance. || Was 2005 a decisive break in a half century of European Union expansion, or just one of ist periodic episodes of gloom and self-doubt? Could enlargement fatigue become a self-fulfilling prophecy, slowing down reforms and spreading instability among the candidates? || To explore these questions, ESI is carrying out a series of studies on current debates on enlargement in key EU member states, entitled Beyond Enlargement Fatigue? The series begins with one of Turkey’s traditional supporters, the Netherlands, and examines how Dutch attitudes have developed since 1999. It will continue with studies of the enlargement debates in Austria, Germany, France and other EU members.
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No single topic poisons relations between Turks and Armenians more than the 1915 destruction of the Armenian communities of Anatolia, and the question of whether it constituted genocide. For Turkey, the fight against genocide recognition on the international stage has been a central goal of foreign policy. For Armenians, the genocide and the resulting loss of a traditional homeland is a defining element of their national identity. At present, the two countries have no diplomatic relations. The border between them remains closed. In recent times the first signs of a rapprochement have appeared, with the political leadership on both sides making conciliatory gestures. For a normalisation of relations to take place, however, both sides will have to overcome some deeply entrenched prejudices. || Today is a critical period for both countries. Restoring diplomatic relations and opening the border, though only first steps towards reconciliation, would marginalise extremist voices on both sides, enabling a more reasonable and measured debate to go forward. Turkey should stop trying to stifle discussion of the Armenian genocide both at home and abroad – and avoid over-reacting if, as might well happen, any more of its allies recognise the events of 1915 as genocide. For their part, Armenians must accept that recognition of the genocide will never pave the way for challenging a territorial settlement that has stood for nearly a century.
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This report highlights the discriminatory treatment of Kosovars – whether they are Kosovo Albanians, Kosovo Serbs, Kosovo Roma, Kosovo Bosniaks, or Kosovo Ashkali and Egyptians – by the European Union in the context of the EU‟s visa policy. || This paper explores what has happened in the last twelve months in detail. It argues that the EU has demanded things from Kosovo to be allowed to start a visa liberalisation process than it had not demanded from all other Western Balkan countries. Importantly, our analysis shows that in fact Kosovo has met even those additional demands. Nevertheless, it is still kept out in the cold.
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Since the visa requirement was lifted for Western Balkan countries in 2009, there has been a sharp increase in claims for political asylum by citizens of the region. Barely any of these applicants qualify for asylum. Rather, they are benefitting from national asylum rules that provide relatively generous benefits during the application process. || This paper proposes two possible solutions. One is to address the problem at the national level. Those states that have seen a sharp increase in applications from the Balkans could radically shorten their procedures. They could follow the example of Switzerland, which has recently introduced a 48-hour procedure for applicants from safe European countries like the Balkans. The other option is to tackle the problem at the EU level. The EU should label countries that have completed a visa liberalisation process as “safe countries of origin”, allowing for lighter and quicker processing procedures. We believe that the ideal response would be to pursue both solutions in parallel.
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The process of European enlargement faces a serious and deepening crisis. Trust in enlargement policy is declining everywhere: in EU member states, in candidate countries, among those who govern and those in opposition. || … || So how can enlargement policy break out of its vicious circle? How can it restore its credibility and popularity with EU publics and recapture the imagination of reformers in accession countries?The process of European enlargement faces a serious and deepening crisis. Trust in enlargement policy is declining everywhere: in EU member states, in candidate countries, among those who govern and those in opposition. || … || So how can enlargement policy break out of its vicious circle? How can it restore its credibility and popularity with EU publics and recapture the imagination of reformers in accession countries? || … || This report is about understanding this dilemma in the context of Macedonia, a country that highlights all these problems of fairness and strictness. The dialogue presented here is fiction. It is, however, based on almost one hundred interviews with Macedonian’s in all walks of life, from the country’s leading politicians to local officials and small entrepreneurs.
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One popular idea about Bosnia and Herzegovina among European observers is that Newton’s first law of motion applies to its politics: this law says that an object at rest will stay at rest unless acted upon by an outside force. For Bosnian politics, that outside force has to be the international community. One debate in EU capitals today is whether Bosnia is “ready for the next step.” Now that Bosnians have applied for accession, the EU has an obvious way to find out: to give Bosnia a questionnaire, the first step towards preparing an opinion, without delay. The conventional wisdom that Bosnians cannot coordinate when it comes to EU matters is wrong. The history of relations between Bosnia and the EU since 2000 shows that whenever Bosnian institutions were seriously challenged by the EU to co-ordinate, they were able to do so – to the surprise of their European counterparts, who sometimes acted as though Bosnia was expected to fail. This report explores this history and sets the record straight.
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Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine would like to find ways to reinforce their European integration ambitions, currently based on their Association Agreements and DCFTAs with the EU. Given the impasse over demands by these three states for 'membership perspectives', the question is whether there are other routes that could usefully by followed for the time being. Possible answers lead into a chain of linked issues concerning the future of the EU's neighbourhood policy and Eastern Partnership, andconditions for possible future enlargement (first of all for the Balkans). // There are some initiatives emerging on how possibly to reinforce the AA/DCFTAs. One track is to examine the scope for deeper sectoral policy integration in such areas as energy, digital, customs and justice cooperation, as advocated by Ukraine, to which might be added cyber defence.
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The year 2018 was a distinct year for Ukraine’s goods exports featuring several “never-before” statistical facts. On the one hand, the value and share of exports to the European Union reached their historic maximum, backed by the stimuluses provided by the DCFTA. According to the Ukrstat, Ukraine exported USD 20.2 bn to the EU, surpassing the previous peak registered in 2008, i.e. before the hardships of two economic crises and the occupation of the part of Ukraine’s territory. The share of the EU in total exports reached 43%, adding 1 percentage point compared to the previous year peak.
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The study was elaborated by the Institute for Public Policy (IPP) in Bucharest and the Centre for International Studies, with funding from the Constitutional and Legal Policies Institute - Open Society Institute in Budapest and the Open Society Foundation, Bucharest, as part of the program “New Schengen borders and their social and human impact on the “outsiders” of the reintegrated Europe - the Moldovan case”. A substantial contribution was given also by the Institute of Public Policy in Chisinau. The study is part of a larger analysis project, started in 2001 on the basis of a partnership with the Chisinau Institute of Public Policy, involving experts working in institutions in the field of border control in both countries. The goal of this project is to contribute to the improvement of activities in securing the border between Romania and the Republic of Moldova, to the benefit of stability in both countries and regional security. The current study, drafted by experts in both countries, makes available concrete elements and guidelines for political actors, to be taken into account in decisions regarding bilateral relations in the present regional context, under the sign of European and Euro-Atlantic integration.
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The agreement between Prishtina and Belgrade, brokered by the European Union in April 2013 opened the door to resolution of the status dispute between Serbia and Kosovo and unblocked both countries’ path toward integration in the EU. This unprecedented development was made possible by a re-ignition of a previously frozen conflict, reactive but consistent German leadership – with strong British and US support – and political change in Serbia. The Prishtina-Belgrade dialogue holds out the promise as a vehicle which, in conjunction with bilateral pressure and a tailored EU enlargement process, could ultimately lead towards full normalization between Kosovo and Serbia. But this is not a done deal yet – as events following the signing of the agreement in April and an implementation plan in May have demonstrated. Due to developments since the summer, the process has reached a point at which it could go seriously awry, threatening the hard-won functionality of the state of Kosovo and the peaceful integration of the majority of Kosovo’s Serbs, as well as perpetuating the status dispute with Serbia. Now is the time to shut down such threats once and for all. In order to get there a number of key steps are necessary in the aftermath of the local elections scheduled for November,
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The Republic of Macedonia, once considered an island of relative stability in a troubled region, is now once again in the news, for the first time in almost a decade and a half, on account of internal turmoil. The hostility or opportunism of Macedonia’s neighbors has in the past decade abetted the degeneration of an already clientelistic domestic political culture into one in which neo-authoritarianism has taken strong hold. The Social Democratic Union of Macedonia (SDSM), the political opposition to Prime Minister Nikola Gruevski and his ruling party, the nationalist Internal Macedonian Revolutionary Organization-Democratic Party for Macedonian National Unity (VMRO-DPMNE), has for months been releasing voice recordings which appear to record internal government deliberations – and demonstrate widespread (and widely believed) malfeasance. Public dissatisfaction with malgovernance has led to demonstrations, while an ethnic separatist narrative which had been in remission for over a decade has been revived with a bloody – and still opaque – security operation against armed ethnic Albanians in the northern town of Kumanovo in early May.
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Over the course of 2015, an estimated 1.5 million people – the bulk of them refugees from Syria – made their way from Greece to Western Europe via the Balkan route. The shift to this previously marginal route for irregular entry of refugees and migrants into the EU led to the collapse of the EU’s external border in the Aegean and turned the long-standing problem of the EU’s deficient common asylum policy, which disproportionately affected the southern member states, into a full-fledged crisis. As late as early autumn 2015, the refugee crisis was still fully manageable. The EU’s immediate response followed the playbook used in various crises from the eurozone crisis onwards – a combination of reactive German leadership supported by a coalition of willing member states. On September 4, Chancellor Merkel, supported by her Austrian counterpart Werner Faymann, arranged with Prime Minister Viktor Orbán for the transit of refugees and migrants from Hungary with the aim to avert an escalation of the situation in that country. Merkel assembled a coalition of willing states that accepted to receive the bulk of refugees and migrants and worked with the countries on the Balkan route to avoid regional tensions over the wave and to achieve an initial smooth transit free of major human rights violations.
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