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Моделиране на конкуренцията на борсовия пазар на електрическа енергия

Author(s): Victor Avramov / Language(s): Bulgarian / Issue: 1/2020

A model of competition on the electricity stock market is constructed using Cournot’s competition model and the supply function equilibrium (SFE) model. The main distinctive features of the electricity markets are discussed. The models are then applied to a market with the participation of four manufacturers (a nuclear power plant (NPP) and three coal plants). A specific demand function which gives a good description of the market characteristics is formulated and an estimation is made to determine the marginal costs for producers. Three scenarios are presented in order to demonstrate the applicability of the models used and to shed light on the effects of the changing market environment on prices and market structure. The transmission and distribution losses and the capacity constraints of the manufacturers are not covered.

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Моделиране на корпоративна глобална IP мрежа с мултимедийни услуги

Author(s): Yoana Ivanova / Language(s): Bulgarian / Issue: 6/2019

The aim of this paper is building a simulation model of an enterprise global IP network with multimedia services using the network simulation software Cisco Packet Tracer. They are examined protocols for the realization of the VoIP service and providing multimedia content to end users with guaranteed high quality of voice and multimedia services. The result of the research is a simulation model implemented using Cisco networking devices that are selected due to their advantages compared to other device models. The applied contributions are expressed in reducing the operational costs and ensuring reliable protection and stability when the load of the network is maximum.

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МОДЕЛИРАНЕ НА ПОВЕДЕНИЕТО НА ДОМАКИНСТВАТА ПРИ ПРИДОБИВАНЕТО НА ФИНАНСОВИ АКТИВИ/ПАСИВИ

Author(s): Gergana Mihailova-Borisova / Language(s): Bulgarian / Issue: 01/2007

The paper examines the behavior of households, who are the main net saviors in the Bulgarian economy. With accumulated savings they cover their investment and provide financial sources to other economic agents in the economy by the intermediation of the financial institutions. The households play the important role in the economy, especially in the case of the worsening external imbalances, which could be narrowed by the increasing household savings in the economy. For this purpose, it is necessary to define the factors, which determine the dynamics of the acquired financial assets and incurred financial liabilities. The empirical results obtained from the compiled financial accounts (SNA), according to the provided methodology in Mihaylova (2004), are used.

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МОДЕЛИРАНЕ НА ПОТРЕБИТЕЛСКИЯ ИЗБОР

Author(s): Atanas Luizov / Language(s): Bulgarian / Issue: 1/2015

The article reviews the consumer choice models. They are distinctive in focusing on the individual consumer and modeling his choice behavior. This leads to an understanding of how consumer behavior changes when some marketing stimuli are offered. In this article we present presented some brand choice models: stochastic brand choice models, the linear learning model, and logit model incorporating marketing mix variables.

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МОДЕЛИРАНЕ НА ПОТРЕБИТЕЛСКОТО ПОВЕДЕНИЕ НА ПАЗАРА НА ЕЛЕКТРОЕНЕРГИЯ

Author(s): Nikola Gushterov / Language(s): Bulgarian / Issue: 1/2018

Consumer behavior models make it possible to visually present in charts researched entities and the processes they go through, as well as the changes which occur should some variables which affect those processes change. The objective of this paper is to design a meaningful model which may be employed to describe in detail consumer behavior in the process of purchasing energy. The subject of the research is energy consumers, while its objects are the models which could be employed to describe consumer behavior when consuming energy. The analysis we conducted indicated that in order to accomplish our objective we need to account for emotional responses, norms and social factors and major economic variables (prices, incomes, prices of substitute goods).

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МОДЕЛИРАНЕ НА ПРИНУДИТЕЛНАТА ЗАЕТОСТ НА НЕПЪЛНО РАБОТНО ВРЕМЕ И СРОЧЕН ТРУДОВ ДОГОВОР НА МЛАДИТЕ И ВЪЗРАСТНИТЕ ЛИЦА В БЪЛГАРИЯ

Author(s): Plamen Dimitrov / Language(s): Bulgarian / Issue: 4/2017

With the labour market becoming increasingly flexible, there has been a growing trend towards non-standard models of temporary employment that allow persons who, for some reason, prefer fixed-term or part-time employment to earn income. Hence, some EU member states have been employing policies and measures to facilitate the access to flexible employment at all levels within organizations, including access to vocational training, so as to provide better career growth and professional mobility opportunities. Furthermore, some categories of employees and workers do not enter into similar employment arrangements voluntarily but are forced to do so by a number of factors such as family commitments, age or disability constraints, education and training, the need to relocate, cyclical economic crises, etc. We propose a methodology for studying the voluntary/involuntary character of two major types of flexible employment – part-time and fixedterm employment, from the perspective of employees, employers and the labour market. The focus of attention is on the groups exposed to the highest risk on the national labour market, i.e. young people aged 15-29 and adults aged 55-64.

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Моделиране на разпределението на банковите депозити на домакинствата в България

Author(s): Petar Peshev / Language(s): Bulgarian / Issue: 5/2019

Using Bulgarian National Bank’s data on households’ bank deposits facilitates the creation of econometric models for the study of inequality in their distribution. Calculation of the Gini coefficient by household’s bank deposits data serves to create a dependent variable for modeling financial inequality. The financial inequality in the country over the period 2005-2017 is determined by the changes in a number of macroeconomic variables that may have different impacts in the short and long term.

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Моделиране на свободното време, туризма и рекреацията

Author(s): Maya Tsoklinova / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 0

The main objective of the scientific report is to analyze and discuss the various factors that influence the organization of leisure time. The most important are those related to the practice of favorite activities that are opportunities for leisure utilization. Special emphasis is placed on diversity as one of the main advantages of leisure time. Research interest is focused on contemporary dynamic conditions; people increasingly pay attention to the lessons that separate them from everyday life, seeking ways to restore physical and mental performance. In the modern world, this issue is particularly relevant in view of the ongoing transformations in public thinking and perception, the emergence of new labor-related trends and the need for escape from reality.

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Моделиране на трудовия пазар в България

Author(s): Vassil Tzanov / Language(s): Bulgarian / Issue: 1/1999

This study is an attempt to estimate and analys the links and relationships of the main elements and flows of the Bulgarian labour market at 90s in their simultaneity. For this purpose the econometric modeling is used, and in particularly the new approach from general to specific modelling and cointegration analyses. In this connection the statistical properties of the variables and their possibilities to modelling are investigated. There are specified and estimated the econometric models describing the long and short-run relationships of the employment, vacancies, matching function, wages and prices. A simulation short-run econometric model of the Bulgarian labour market incorporating the error correction mechanisms (ECM) is build up and estimated. Characteristics of the properties and possibilities of the model for analyses, forecast and simulation of different labour market policies are made.

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Моделиране на търсенето и предлагането на кредити в България

Author(s): Petar Peshev / Language(s): Bulgarian / Issue: 5/2015

Econometric modelling of demand and supply of bank loans in Bulgaria, introducedin this scientific paper, can help not only decision makers in the public and privatesector, but can also support researchers and analysts in revealing the determinantsof lending, being a major factor for the economy dynamics. The bank loans’demand and supply determinants are parameterized using the Johansen (1988)and the two-step Engle and Granger (1987) approaches to cointegration and errorcorrection dynamic modelling. The main results reveal that the demand for loans inthe long run depends mainly on the economic activity, capital inflows, deposits andloans to deposits ratio of the non-financial sector. In the short term thesedeterminants are complemented by imports of goods and services. The supply ofloans, however, in all time frames is influenced primarily by changes in banks’liquidity, net interest income, capital adequacy and the producer prices dynamics,but in the long term consumer prices, market concentration and foreign ownershipare supplementing the supply of loans’ drivers.

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Моделиране на финансовите пазари

Author(s): Vladimir Tsenkov / Language(s): Bulgarian / Issue: 5/2009

The variability and the return on a financial asset on the grounds of historical price data is determined usually by means of the price correlations of values, realized in two adjacent periods. This approach does not reflect completely the fluctuations of the financial markets, because their values monitored in two adjacent periods are quite similar. This is a hindrance for the variability in the econometric models to be covered completely, with reference to the time data lines and looking for the autocorrelation between the separate lines. It refers to the GARCH models, encompassing fully phenomena of the financial trade such as autocorrelations and variability clusters. The application of the scope model, based on the difference between the top and the bottom price realized in a business day, using these models results in a precise reflection of the real dynamics of the variability of the daily return. The different approaches for its presentation in the GARCH models are studied – from the dynamics of its mean value to the use as an expression of the dynamics of the provisional variability of return. Thus the use of the scope could be considered a natural follow-up of the GARCH models in order to improve their explanatory and forecasting value in the process of econometric modeling of the variability.

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Моделиране на фирмена дейност

Author(s): Ivan Stoykov,Paraskeva Dimitrova / Language(s): Bulgarian / Issue: 3/2003

The study defines a common scheme for study the conditions of a firm, approaches and models for determining optimal decisions. They are developed for firms from the wine production industry. Suggested are versions of development of the wine production. A total structure of the model is given. Developed is a model with reporting the possibilities and are shown approaches for evaluation of the possibilities. Formulated is an optimization model of annual production programs with reporting the influence of accident factors and game model for cooperation of firms.

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Моделиране разпределениeто на земеделските стопанства в България за периода 1897 – 2005 г.

Author(s): Polya Angelova / Language(s): Bulgarian / Issue: 6/2009

Alternative modeling patterns of empirical distribution of the farms according to the dimensions of the plots of land are proposed pursuant to the information from the census of landed property and the farms in Bulgaria between 1897 – 2005. Three modeling functions are applied with graphs close to the empirical distribution curves: exponential distribution, Pareto distribution and the left cut common distribution. The main characteristics of the above distributions are investigated. The parameters of the three functions are assessed by means of the methods of moments with argumentation of selection. The theoretical frequencies of each monitoring are established, evaluating the correlation between the empirical and theoretical distributions. Conclusions are made regarding the characteristics of distribution, according to the ultimate asymmetric shape and the their effect on the state of the contemporary agriculture in Bulgaria.

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Моделиране риска на централноевропейския фондов пазар по време на кризи

Author(s): Nigohos Kanaryan / Language(s): Bulgarian / Issue: 3/2004

The present study represents a model of risk at the Central European Stock Exchange, measured as the yield dispersion of the CESI index. The period under analysis – 30 June 1995 – 31 May 2002 is divided into three subperiods – precrisis, crisis and postcrisis. The main characteristics of the market are identified and those are found to be the same for the group of developing stock exchanges. The observed high levels of the excess coefficient and accumulated volatility represent the time changing nature of risk. That in its turn allows us to model it using the GARCH model approach. From the 17 GARCH models presented, the asymmetric models, which presuppose probabilistic dispersion of errors that is different from the norm, feature the highest risk projection capability.

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МОДЕЛИРАНЕТО НА СЧЕТОВОДНАТА СИСТЕМА – СРЕДСТВО ЗА РАЦИОНАЛИЗИРАНЕ НА ПОЛУЧАВАНЕТО И ОБРАБОТКАТА НА ИКОНОМИЧЕСКАТА ИНФОРМАЦИЯ

Author(s): Viktor Hadzikotev / Language(s): Bulgarian / Issue: 1/2015

At the present stage of economic development, requirements to improve the mechanisms and methods of management increase. Special role in solving this problem has the accounting, which is one of the most effective levers to control the economy in a market economy. Despite the widespread automation of accounting work, the presence of various specialized computer programs for accounting information processing, accounting subsystem continues to be insufficiently efficient, labor-intensive and time-consuming. Basic requirements for the accounting system are its functioning and development to satisfy requirements set to it. The activity of design of economic systems is connected to deepened study of the correlations between unique methodology and effectiveness of the unified information systems.

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Моделираща среда и човешки потенциал

Author(s): Kamen Kamenov / Language(s): Bulgarian / Issue: 03/2011

The article examines factors forming the modeling environment of human potential. Their operation is analyzed under different variants of combination. Along with the genetically determined qualities the modeling environment underlies the building of human potential. The relation between potential level and realization environment is examined. Their favourable combination creates the best opportunities for revealing exceptional gifts and endowments in the human factor, i.e. talents. A connection is made between human potential and economic growth emphasizing on the importance of human qualities in perspective for the creation of an effective and competitive economy.

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МОДЕЛИРОВАНИЕ ВЛИЯНИЯ САНКЦИЙ НА НЕРАВЕНСТВО В РАСПРЕДЕЛЕНИИ ДОХОДОВ НАСЕЛЕНИЯ СТРАН-ОБЪЕКТОВ

Author(s): Oleg Svyatoslavovich Mariev,Ivan Valeryevich Savin,Nikita Sergeevich Teplyakov / Language(s): Russian / Issue: 2/2020

The use of sanctions as means of coercion and motivation is not always effective. Ruling elites have an ability to shift the burden on less protected population of the country despite the risk of social unrest. The paper aims to perform an empirical analysis of the impact of economic sanctions on the population of the target countries in general and its individual groups in particular. We test three hypotheses: about the negative impact of economic and financial sanctions on the welfare of the poorest people, about the nonlinear relationship between economic growth and income inequality, and about the impact of country characteristics and the duration of sanctions on income distribution. Having applied econometric modelling to panel data, we found that economic and financial sanctions are detrimental to the low-income population and inappropriate for policies aimed at reducing income inequality. Indicators of economic growth can be linked with both an increase and a decrease in economic inequality due to the nonlinear form of their dependence. Regional characteristics of the countries of Africa, North America and South America determine their propensity to a higher level of inequality, as well as the long duration of sanctions. Finally, sanctions are not harming the richest people, as they are able to shift the burden of sanctions on the rest of the population. The research is relevant in practice, as its results can be taken into consideration when developing a sanctions policy to minimize harmful consequences for the civilian population.

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МОДЕЛИРОВАНИЕ ИНВАРИАНТОВ АКАДЕМИЧЕСКОЙ МИГРАЦИИ, ВЛИЯЮЩИХ НА СОЦИАЛЬНО-ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИЕ ПОКАЗАТЕЛИ ТЕРРИТОРИИ

Author(s): Tamara Vladimirovna Kuprina,Svetlana Mikhaelovna Minasyan,Armen Mishaevich Tsaturyan / Language(s): Russian / Issue: 3/2019

Currently, the migration flows, including academic migration, are increasing. The present situation requires studying both the problems of the academic migrants’ adaptation in a new socio-cultural environment and the academic migration’s impact on socio-economic processes. However, there are very few studies focused on the academic migration. The article aims to demonstrate the possibilities and risks of academic migration and to model its invariants influencing socio-economic indicators. We hypothesise that certain factors might accelerate the process of migrants’ adaptation and influence the socio-economic indicators of the host territory. We analysed Russia’s position in the systems of academic migrations and theoretical foundations concerning the definition of the concept «academic migration» and its invariants. Based on the analysis, we consider academic migration as one of the resources that positively influence socio-economic processes. In addition, we extrapolate the thesis about internationalization of the resource blocks on the education system. Academic migration can be considered as human capital in the transfer of innovative technologies both to the host country and abroad. We analyse domestic and foreign studies describing the influence of individual factors. Moreover, we highlight the conditions contributing to an increase in the share of academic (highly skilled) migration replacing a low-skilled one. For assessing the possibilities of academic migration, we apply the method of analogy and transfer the physical quantities on the social processes. Thus, we determine adiabatic invariants of migration in general and academic migration in particular. The obtained results prove our assumption about the influence of academic migration on the socio-economic processes of the host territory. We plan to focus further research at a more in-depth study of conditions that support academic migration.

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Моделирование инвестиционной привлекательности научной сферы в регионе

Author(s): Aleksandr Aleksandrovich Tarasyev,Ilya Arturovich Krivenko,Maria Sergeevna Pecherkina,Tatiana Olegovna Kashina / Language(s): Russian / Issue: 1/2016

analysis of the Russian financial flows into scientific research and development. The paper explains the dynamics of the maininvestment flows trends into research and development, highlights the causes of financial flows variable dynamics directed to thehigh-tech industry. In the work, the investment situation in the Russian market was compared with the foreign experience. Thegenesis of the optimal financial distribution problems showed the need to develop a dynamic model with the built-in differentialequations to forecast the behavioral dynamics of investment flows. We selected the statistical indicators, which have a significantimpact on the dynamics of investment flows directed into science. To assess the dynamics of investment flows, we have developeda methodology, which provides a cumulative assessment of the territory investment attractiveness. The multifactor integralestimation allows to describe a data array, reflecting the accumulation of investment attractiveness over time depending onthe dynamics of the resultant socio-economic proportional indexes. Due to the accumulation of a data array over time using adifferential equation, it is possible to obtain a forecast of the volume of the territory investment attractiveness. The amount of theprojected investment flows depends directly on the amount of the investment attractiveness accumulated for the previous step ofmodel’s time. The integrated assessment of the investment attractiveness of the scientific sector in the region allows to reveal theinvestors preference of the regions with a high concentration of research institutions and higher education institutes.

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Моделирование инновационного резонанса в индустриальных регионах

Author(s): Viktoriya Viktorovna Akberdina,Anatoliy Viktorovich Grebyonkin,Nikolay Yuvenalyevich Bukhvalov / Language(s): Russian / Issue: 4/2015

The main purpose of the article is to validate the mathematical models describing the innovative response in the industrial regions. The article gives a deep analysis of trends in the development of the Russian industrial regions, puts forward and tests the following hypotheses: the hypothesis of uneven economic development of different types of industrial regions (regions, strengthening its industrial status, new industrial regions and regions of deindustrialization), the hypothesis of the development identity of certain types of industrial regions, the hypothesis of the catalytic role of the state in the dynamics of innovation, the hypothesis of the existence of the resonance innovation in the economic system. The authors propose the innovative resonance methodology, show the conditions for the resonance in the economic system, describe the types of resonant response. The main methods used are: resonance effects, reproductive techniques and methods of economic-mathematical modelling. In the paper, the authors propose a mathematical formalization of the innovative resonance mechanism in the regional industrial system, which includes: a) the development model of investment by industry and reproductive sectors; b) the dynamic diversified (multi-sectoral) model of reproduction; c) the model of the adaptive management of the innovative self-development of regional industrial system; d) the model of the stability of innovation dynamics and extended reproduction. The authors study the innovative response in the industrial regions of Russia. In the context of innovation resonance, the authors examined the functional industrial policies of a typical industrial region and the resonant responses associated with its implementation. The results of the study presented in the paper can be used in the justification of the mechanisms of the regional industrial policy, as well as for the assessment of the regulatory impact of the existing legal acts.

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