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Ballistic missiles and ballistic missile defense have become over the recent decades not only a weapon bringing the certainty of achieving one’s military objectives at minimum costs and risks, but have also been an important political instrument, impacting both strategic relations among the superpowers, and the regional powers, too. The differences in approach to the issue resulted from uneven access to technology, the costs associated with developing appropriate military systems, and political factors (such as domestic policy, budget constraints, or membership in international alliances). These factors could respectively impede or facilitate the development of adequate defense and deterrence capabilities. The analysis of the BMD development process allows for several generalisations that should clarify the most common misconceptions accompanying the issue: the certainty that there exists, or can be quickly established, the actual capability of unlimited missile defense, both in terms of range of missile threats and defended targets, as well as the opinion that all of the existing problems can be solved by (the use of) modern technology, the development of which is constant and permanent. The development of the BMD capabilities always generates substantial costs necessary to build these capabilities, but the practical usefulness of the latter is often hard to be proven in light of relatively few cases when they are actually used in battlefield conditions. These problems, among others, raised in the essay, are of crucial importance for Poland in the process of developing its indigenous BMD capabilities.
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This article analyses three challanges facing NATO’s nuclear policy. First, the political obligation to strive for transparency and increase confidence regarding tactical nuclear weapons in reciprocity with Russia. Second, the technological need to ensure safety, security and effectivity of nuclear deterrence capabilities deployed in Europe. Third, the reversion of the debate over the utility of the B61 on the Old Continent. The 2014 annexation of Crimea by Russia and a hybrid war led in Eastern Ukraine have resulted in a significant erosion in relations between NATO and Russia. This in turn complicates any further moves to create conditions for a future elimination of tactical nuclear weapons from Europe. At the same time, NATO member states should consider building upon transparency and confidencebuilding measures on tactical nuclear weapons as a complimentary way to overcome the current political stalemate.
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Several eurozone members still suffer from serious structural problems, the roots of which go back much further than the creation of the common currency or even the European Union itself. Although the challenges in France are much less significant than in Greece, Italy or Spain, halfway through the term of office of President François Hollande it is worth taking a moment to make an overall assessment of the process of economic reform in the country and the difficulties with it that lie ahead. This is important because in 2017 the country will hold parliamentary and presidential elections that will likely change the balance of power in Paris. The French political scene, both left and right, is in serious crisis, leaving fertile ground for the growth of the radical National Front party. That does not bode well for the possibility of reforms after 2017 and may contribute to the overall risk of undermining the future of the Economic and Monetary Union.
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Soft power plays an increasingly important role in international relations at a time of growing interdependence and globalisation. Also India, quietly but consistently, has over the past two decades developed new instruments and built up capacities for projecting its “power of attraction.” The article presents the place of soft power in India’s foreign policy and examines the strengths and challenges of the new approach. Contrary to some concerns about a more hard power-oriented posture of the new BJP government, the author argues that it will rather reinforce the country’s soft power. In combination with growing hard power potential, this can make India a major global smart power in the 21st century.
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The article has been written on the occasion of the first Polish edition of Rafał Lemkin’s classic: Axis Rule in Occupied Europe, the book which paved the way for the legal protection of entire nations threatened with annihilation for political reasons, often by their own state, and adoption by the UN, in December 1948, of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide. The author argues that an original contribution of Lemkin’s thinking to development of international and humanitarian law laid not only in his view that the civilised nations should condemn, prohibit and prevent any attempts of deliberate liquidation of an entire group of people as the “crime of crimes,” with which the mankind lost a chance to benefit from that group’s cultural and intellectual contributions in the future. But also it was Lemkin’s determination to collect evidence that made it possible to build logical reasoning corroborating the personal responsibility of Third Reich leaders, including Hitler, for the mass crimes committed by German state institutions in occupied European countries. Thus Axis Rule in Occupied Europe was the first attempt to prove responsibility of Nazi Germany for atrocities committed in occupied Europe through careful analysis of law and regulations introduced by the occupying powers.
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W świetle prawa międzynarodowego przyłączenie wchodzącego w skład terytorium Ukrainy Półwyspu Krymskiego (Krymu) do Federacji Rosyjskiej należy kwalifikować jako aneksję, tj. nielegalne nabycie terytorium innego państwa w drodze użycia i/lub groźby użycia siły zbrojnej. Z tego względu Krym z punktu widzenia prawa międzynarodowego pozostaje terytorium okupowanym. Dokonując aneksji Krymu, Federacja Rosyjska dopuściła się naruszenia wielu traktatów oraz podstawowych zasad prawa międzynarodowego, tj. zasady integralności terytorialnej państw, zakazu ingerencji w sprawy wewnętrzne innego państwa i zakazu użycia/groźby użycia siły zbrojnej przeciwko innemu państwu. W konsekwencji Federacja Rosyjska naruszyła podlegające międzynarodowej ochronie prawa Ukrainy. Równocześnie jednak ze względu na szczególny status prawny naruszonych zasad prawa międzynarodowego, Federacja Rosyjska naruszyła swoje zobowiązania prawne wobec całej społeczności międzynarodowej. Po stronie tej społeczności istnieje międzynarodowoprawny obowiązek nieuznawania powstałej w wyniku bezprawnego użycia siły w formie agresji zbrojnej sytuacji nielegalnej i jej skutków.
More...Byliśmy cholernymi optymistami
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A new cooperative system that would reflect the complexity and interdependence of the modern world should be based on inherited peaceful transformation. It means in practice that the role of “old powers” will decrease, while the growing clout of “emerging powers” will increase. At present, a large number of players on the global stage do not accept political pluralism—neither democratic legitimacy of governance nor individual rights and freedoms. In effect, the emerging polycentric world political order is heterogeneous rather than homogenous. Mutual trust could be based not so much on establishing new institutions as creating conditions that would initiate target-oriented political dialogue and returning to the fundamental principles of international law and an agreed code of conduct. Unconventional challenges require the urgent need for adequate unconventional political and military strategies.
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In the article Roman Kuźniar takes a critical stance on the widely discussed article by John Mearsheimer, an article in which the University of Chicago professor blames the West for the Ukrainian crisis. Mearsheimer reiterates that both UE and NATO enlargement could not but be seen as threats to Russian interests. With Western plans to bring Ukraine and Georgia to the EU and possibly to NATO as well, Russia could not have reacted otherwise. Kuźniar contradicts Mearsheimer’s position, pinpointing to longtime Western efforts to build bridges towards Moscow and to include Russia in close cooperation with NATO, EU, G-8 membership, etc. None of that worked, because Russia wanted to be respected as yet another Soviet Union. Kuźniar’s view is that the right way to deal with “new Russia” is not to appease her, but to contain her aggressive tendencies.
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The current text of the European Security Strategy is 12 years old. Its record relates to a world, even if not completely non-existent, then certainly one that is described selectively. As such it urgently requires a fresh look. Avoiding the strategic debate per se does not remove the need for the EU to act strategically. Its aim is not mere participation in international relations based on the existing potential to effectively protect Community interests. The lack of an upto- date security strategy blurs the clarity of purpose, weakens domestic consensus, and does not facilitate communication with other international actors. Pursuing strategies by collective actors (with multiple centres of decision-making), which is the case with the European Union, by its very nature cannot be easy. Democracy as a common denominator for the EU and the Member States’ status as sovereign decision-makers on strategic matters do not provide for a single dominant model of a security strategy. Thus, inevitably, both short-term decisions and the common strategic culture are the result of a laborious and rather slow process. The main purpose of the EU strategy, however, is to be simply an instrument of good policy and an effective reference point in planning specific, collective actions, conscious of the clearly stated interests of the entire Community. It is not replaceable by ad hoc measures or sectoral approaches (resulting solely from external circumstances, opportunities as they arise, or simply viewed as ersatz strategy). Having a strategy promotes the strong members in the implementation of their plans and in the case of the weaker—brings hope that their security situation will improve. Thus, it is also an attribute of global leadership, to which the EU aspires.
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In the 18th century the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth had found itself sandwiched between two European superpowers, Russia and Prussia, which soon partitioned it among themselves and Austria. The short period of national independence after World War I ended with the outbreak of World War II. All this impacted on the way Polish political thinkers defined the Polish geopolitical raison d’état. The article examines the ideas of two prominent authors, Adolf Maria Bocheński (1909–1944), whose main work appeared in 1930s, and Juliusz Mieroszewski (1906–1976), a political commentator for the Paris-based Kultura. The former tried in vain to find a way out of the Polish interwar geopolitical predicament; the latter speculated about conditions that could lead to the restoration of Poland’s independence. He predicted the demise of the Soviet bloc and the USSR itself, as well as the reunification of Germany. He also suggested the best course for Polish foreign policy in the new situation. His ideas strongly influenced the way post-communist leaders perceived Poland’s strategic interests in the new Europe.
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In the past the basic issue at the core of the German question was that Germany had not been able to come to terms with its status quo. It wanted either a better place in the sun, more living space (Lebensraum, as it was called during the Nazi era), or merely national unity, justice, and freedom—in a peaceful way. For Germany to achieve any of those goals, Europe’s political framework would have had to be changed completely. But today, the opposite is true. Since the end of the last century, Germany has settled in so well into the status quo that its role in European and foreign politics has evolved. However, the euro crisis and the Russian crisis have undermined the foundations of this status quo and as a result have raised a new German question. The country that has shaped the status quo and has adjusted to it as no other has now faces the challenge of overcoming the status quo.
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The article analyses the selection criteria and key characteristics of electoral campaigns of states aspiring to a non-permanent seat on the UN Security Council. The campaigns today are significantly different than in the past, as they cannot simply be run via traditional diplomatic club negotiations between diplomats in New York. Representation on this key UN body entails a much more strategic approach from the state, use of public diplomacy, intense lobbying and substantial resources planned and spent years in advance. If a candidate does not have a “clean slate” from his regional grouping, however, the final result remains unpredictable and rests on a number of interrelated factors, “equal geographical distribution” being among the most important.
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The purpose of the paper is to give an overview of the changes in the structure of industries in Romania, specifically on the questions (1) whether the industrial structures become more similar or more different in the Romanian regions and (2) whether the Romanian industries become more concentrated or more dispersed. EUROSTAT regional data on Gross Value Added and employed population for the period of 2000-2013 are used in order to calculate several statistical indices of specialization and concentration (Krugman, Entropy, Hirschman-Herfindahl, Lilien Index and Gini coefficient). By comparing the values of these different measurements, the main finding is that Romanian regions become less specialized, while industries become slightly more concentrated. The speed of structural changes in all Romanian regions registered a noticeable slowdown of the speed of sectoral changes after the economic crisis. Our conclusions provide useful information for the economic policy makers in investment funds allocation or employment measures designing.
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The paper begins with a short literature review regarding the public governance concept in the EU approach and its methods for establishing a common way to manage different situations for all member states; we discovered that the problems they confront with have to do with good governance and qualitative public administration. In the second part, we developed an econometric model for three Eastern European countries and we found a strong correlation between the total revenues from taxes and social contributions and total gross debt in 2002-2014 period. We ended the paper by emphasizing the conclusions obtained.
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The paper deals with the evaluation of the perception of packaging innovations in terms of their functions through the Kano model. It focuses on the evaluation of the perception of innovation of all main seven functions of packaging, in particular on handling, protective, informative, economic, environmental, promotional and ecological packaging functions. The results indicate that the target groups interested in the new innovative packaging are mostly in age between 41 to 60 years. These groups have the highest requirements for new packaging. The innovations of handling functions of packaging have the most significant influence on the older generation. However, almost all ages categories positively recognize ecological innovations of packaging.
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We are studying the economic phenomenon of the unemployment in Maramures County of Romania. To obtain plausible conclusions regarding this study we apply different types of regression: the linear regression, polynomial regression, spline and Bspline regression. In this paper we focus on the numerical side of the research and we compare the predicted values, the graphic representation of the evolution, the future predictions and the errors generated by the regressions mentioned above. The calculations are performed in R, a programming language for statistical computing. An implementation in R is given.
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