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14th EU-India Summit in New Delhi Strengthens Partnership

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2017

The EU-India Summit in New Delhi on 6 October showed an increasing convergence of views on major regional and global issues and boosted the strategic partnership established in 2004. Yet, the lack of a breakthrough in negotiations of the Broad-based Trade and Investment Agreement (BTIA) proves it remains a major challenge, along with the negative effects of Brexit, on EU-India relations. If the negotiations are protracted, the EU may consider a separate deal on investments alone. Poland should consider more actively participating in shaping EU policy on India and using existing mechanisms of dialogue to strengthen its bilateral cooperation.

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A “Non-euro” Zone after a Possible Brexit

Author(s): Sebastian Plóciennik / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2016

The UK’s exit from the European Union will change the relationship between eurozone countries and those without a common currency—primarily to the detriment of the latter. They will be faced with a choice between fast-track adoption of the euro or political and economic marginalisation. The obvious political and economic risks associated with both options can be limited by stabilising the relationship between the eurozone and EU Member States without the common currency. In this context, it is worth considering strengthening the European Exchange Rate Mechanism.

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Afghanistan: New Opportunities for Talks with the Taliban

Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz,Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2016

Since the end of the ISAF mission and new territorial gains by the Afghan Taliban, there has been a visible intensification of diplomatic efforts to convince rebels to enter into peace talks with the government in Kabul. Although the Taliban’s official conditions are still unrealistic, a number of new factors suggest negotiations are possible.

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An EU Tax Haven List: Prospects and Limitations

Author(s): Patryk Toporowski / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2017

The European Union is pursuing the creation of a blacklist of tax havens. It would be an element of the wider strategy to counter tax avoidance. The list, however, may prove an ineffective tool to limit profit-shifting outside the EU. Poland may lose as much as €10 billion euros in corporate income tax and may join a group of countries actively seeking closer cooperation on fighting tax evasion.

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Anti-Corruption Protests Pressure Putin Ahead of 2018 Presidential Election

Author(s): Lukasz Jasina,Agnieszka Legucka / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2017

In March, the most significant anti-government protests since 2012 took place in Russia, ostensibly against corruption. The biggest political winner was opposition leader Alexei Navalny, who wants to run in next year’s presidential election. The protests have forced Russian President Vladimir Putin to find a new electoral strategy. In addition to social and economic issues, he and his authorities aim to mobilise Russian voters on other important issues, such as the threat of terrorism. This means that the Russian election campaign in 2018 will be dominated by both anti-corruption and state security themes.

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ASEAN’s 50th Anniversary: An Opportunity for a New Opening in Economic Relations with Poland

Author(s): Damian Wnukowski / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2017

This year, ASEAN celebrates its 50th anniversary. Established in 1967, the organisation has contributed to sustaining peace in Southeast Asia and to the rapid economic development of the region in recent decades. It is perceived as one of the most successful integration projects in Asia. Despite its rising economic position, ASEAN’s economic relations with Poland are unsatisfactory and do not tap the potential. Among the ways to improve the situation are to take advantage of progressive integration within the ASEAN Economic Community and to intensify efforts to promote Poland in the region.

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Australia and the Global LNG Market

Author(s): Bartosz Wisniewski / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2017

An advantageous geographical location and liberalised trade in energy resources allow Australia to successfully compete for the most lucrative and promising liquefied natural gas (LNG) markets. Come 2020, Australia likely will be the world’s largest LNG supplier. However, its domestic LNG industry will have to face the challenge of securing enough natural gas for export. For LNG importers like Poland, the success of those efforts would ensure favourable market conditions.

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Baltic States Adjust Their Security Policy

Author(s): Kinga Ras / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2017

Faced with uncertainty about U.S. policy in NATO and U.S.-Russia relations, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have attempted to adapt their security policy to these circumstances. Mainly, this has involved a gradual increase in defence spending and an intensification of activity among the Baltic States after Russia’s actions in Ukraine. The Russian threat to these states remains the dominant determinant of the security policy of the Baltic States, which because of their limited potential in military terms will instead seek to specialise in areas highly relevant to NATO’s ability to deter aggression and respond to new challenges.

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Baltic States’ Intelligence Services Report Increased Threat from Russia

Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski,Kinga Ras / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2016

An increasing and more aggressive level of Russian espionage was noted in the latest annual assessments by the counter-intelligence services of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. Particular attention should be devoted to the activity of Russia’s internal security service (FSB) in its reconnaissance of border areas and in coordination with Belorussian intelligence services. Given the military potential of Russia and Belarus, these reports require preparation for a much broader spectrum of hybrid warfare scenarios in the region. In response, the Baltic States, in addition to a NATO forward presence and all members reaching the level of 2% of their GDP spent on the military, need to invest far more resources in their intelligence services, border protection, cybersecurity and countering Russian propaganda.

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Banning the Majlis: Another Manifestation of Russian Repression of the Crimean Tatars

Author(s): Piotr Koscinski / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2016

On 26 April, the Supreme Court of Crimea banned the Majlis, the representation of Crimean Tatars, recognising it as an extremist organisation. Thus, Russia has eliminated opposition activity by the Crimean Tatars, replacing the Majlis with Russian-created structures that present the façade of representing the Tatar community. The growing Russian repression means that an entire ethnic group, which was persecuted in the days of the Soviet Union, is threatened. This implies the need for support from the international community by, among other things, monitoring the actions of the Russian authorities and condemning repression.

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Between Bonn and Katowice: The Challenges in Global Climate Negotiations

Author(s): Marek Jan Wasinski / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2018

The global climate summit in Bonn (COP23) in November 2017 was supposed to bring compromise close on areas such as rules for monitoring national climate actions. The universality of these actions, that is, covering both developed and developing countries, was one of the main ideas of the Paris Agreement. In Bonn, however, the divisions between the parties were again made stark, making it difficult to reach compromise. For Poland, as host of the next climate summit (COP24) in December 2018 in Katowice, finalising these negotiations will be a top priority.

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British Party System and the Brexit Negotiations

Author(s): Przemyslaw Biskup / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2017

During their annual conventions in September and October, British parties presented updated visions of the country’s EU exit. The Conservatives and Labour eventually took clear “hard” and “soft” Brexit positions, respectively. These decisions result from the division in British society and are intended to reinforce the dominance of both parties against the others. This party competition, however, hardens the position of the British government in negotiations with the EU. It also increases the likelihood of Prime Minister Theresa May being replaced by a Conservative Eurosceptic in case of a crisis in the UK-EU talks.

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Can Development Assistance Solve the Refugee Crisis?

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2016

Though the inflow of refugees to Europe has been halted in 2016, the root causes of massive migration did not disappear. One of the European Union’s methods of dealing with this challenge is to provide foreign aid to countries of origin and transit of migrants. This will not solve the refugee crisis, but might help to ease the pressure on the EU. To strengthen the impact of such assistance would require a radical increase in funding and improved cooperation with third countries. Yet attempts to subordinate development cooperation to migration policy goals will incur certain political costs and undermine the EU’s international credibility.

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Challenges in Putin’s Re-election Campaign

Author(s): Agnieszka Legucka / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2016

Vladimir Putin announced on 6 December that he would take part in the presidential election scheduled for March 2018. According to the Russian constitution, this should be the incumbent president’s last term in office. To prepare for a successor, he must increase control over the political elite and improve communication with the public. For this, he needs high voter turnout and a skilful defeat of rival interest groups seeking to access power.

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Challenges to U.S.-Russia Strategic Arms Control during the Trump Presidency

Author(s): Jacek Durkalec / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2017

The coming years may mark the end of bilateral limitations of U.S. and Russian nuclear arsenals. The future of the New START treaty is unclear, chances for a new agreement slim, and violation of the INF treaty by Russia remains a serious challenge. While strategic arms control strengthens NATO’s security, it should not come at the price of concessions undermining the role of the U.S. as guarantor of security and stability in Europe.

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Challenging the European Commission Decision on the Opal Gas Pipeline

Author(s): Szymon Zareba / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2016

The European Commission decision permitting Gazprom to use a greater capacity of the Opal pipeline than it already does is based on the erroneous assumption that this will help enhance both security and competition in the supply of natural gas. The Commission evaluates the circumstances of the case incorrectly and ignores changes to EU energy legislation. Poland should consider challenging this decision before the EU Court of Justice, or intervening in a case already brought before the Court by private entities.

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Changes to the NATO Command Structure

Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2017

NATO defence ministers approved changes to the Alliance’s command structure to increase its ability to conduct collective-defence missions. However, the decision about the location of new commands is still pending. While working out a compromise, the Allies should not undermine the political coherence of NATO, the backbone of its credibility.

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China’s Plans to Strengthen Relations with Germany

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2017

China endeavours to strengthen its relations with Germany by taking advantage of the strain in transatlantic relations. In China’s view, Germany would be the PRC’s main partner in the promotion of free trade, climate protection, and a multipolar world order. To foster the relationship, China is willing to minimize disputes with Germany and improve ties, such as by speeding up certification of German political foundations. Strengthening of China–Germany relations requires increased access to the Chinese market for German companies, which is only possible in a longer perspective. Poland may see some benefit from increased exports to Germany and indirectly to China.

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China’s Role in Hungarian Foreign Policy

Author(s): Veronika Józwiak / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2017

In May, China raised bilateral relations with Hungary to a comprehensive strategic partnership. Hungarian involvement in China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is part of Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s foreign policy approach aimed at increasing access to eastern markets, attracting foreign direct investment, and further strengthening economic cooperation with China. However, so far, the cooperation has not had the intended effect. New Chinese FDI in Hungary has decreased significantly in the last few years and nothing indicates a reversal of this trend.

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China-EU Relations: Post-Summit Perspectives

Author(s): Justyna Szczudlik / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2016

The latest EU-China summit confirmed the increasing discrepancies between the two sides. China, in protecting its own market, treats European investors unevenly. Simultaneously, the PRC is seeking unlimited access to the EU market to export products resulting from its overcapacity. The EU is concerned about subsidised Chinese exports, which may increase unemployment in Europe. There are rifts in the normative domain as well: China has not accepted an arbitration tribunal’s decision about the South China Sea. The EU, in supporting peaceful means of resolving international disputes, has acknowledged the ruling. Now more than ever, the member states should take into account the European context of relations with the PRC and coordinate their policies towards China with the EU institutions.

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