CEEOL - Search Result

A captive island: Kaliningrad between Moscow and the EU

Author(s): Jadwiga Rogoza,Agata Wierzbowska-Miazga,Iwona Wisniewska / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2012

The Kaliningrad region can be called a 'captive island', because of its specific geopolitical location - it is part of the Russian legal, political and economic space, yet it is geographically separated from the rest of the Russian Federation, and it is particularly open to co-operation with its neighbours in the European Union. Moscow is trying to compensate the region for its separation, offering it financial support and economic privileges.At the same time, it is sensitive to any potential challenges to Russia's territorial integrity - and the centre's desire for control over the region often limits the latter's potential for cooperation and internal development. This report presents the situation in the region, and is intended to help develop a model for its effective regional co-operation with its EU neighbours.

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A quarter-century of independent Ukraine. Dimensions of transformation

Author(s): Tadeusz A. Olszanski / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2017

On 24 August 1991, the Supreme Council of the Ukrainian SSR proclaimed independence, and on 1 December the same year, the Ukrainian people ratified that proclamation in a referendum. The new Ukrainian state had some very important assets, such as the peaceful path that led to its independence, the fact that its territory was uncontested and its civilian administration was established. They downside, which determined Ukraine’s fundamental weaknesses, was that like the other former Soviet republics, it had been part of the Soviet state and had no central state bodies of its own, such as a general staff, a bank of issue, or most of the necessary ministries. After nearly a quarter century of peaceful development, interrupted by the outbreak of the war in 2014, Ukraine is still weak, but at the same time it has consolidated internally and internationally, demonstrated its capacity to withstand armed aggression, and is actively looking for its place in the world. The country’s greatest success has been to raise a new generation of ‘natural-born citizens’ of Ukraine, while its greatest failure has been to succumb to the dramatic population decline with irreversible consequences, and to allow the impoverishment of the lower strata of society, typical for all the post-Soviet states. The present paper is not a history of independent Ukraine, but an attempt to present the main mechanisms by which the former Soviet republic has transformed itself into an independent state with a market economy. It is therefore mainly focused on internal developments in Ukraine.

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A region with special needs. The Russian Far East in Moscow’s policy

Author(s): Szymon Kardas / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2017

Although in the 1990s the Russian Far East was not an important region in Russian central government’s internal policy, when Vladimir Putin assumed the presidency it was declared strategically significant. However, Moscow has been unable to generate a tangible stimulus to the region’s development so far. This is partly due to the systemic problems existing in Russia as a whole: the lack of a consistent concept of economic development and the ineffective governance system, and on the other hand, of purely local barriers: staffing problems, the decentralised energy system and the limited engagement of foreign investors. At present, there is no risk of the region’s marginalisation like in the 1990s. However, it appears that political reintegration of the region with the centre of the federation (tighter institutional control from Moscow) and the status of a stable raw material base for Asian countries, currently represents the maximum development potential of the Russian Far East.

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An essential partner in the background. Europe in China's policy during the rule of Xi Jinping

Author(s): Marcin Kaczmarski / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2016

Chinese elites do not treat Europe as an equal partner and are convinced that China holds the upper hand over Europe. They see a growing asymmetry in bilateral relations. China’s sense of its own potential is boosted by internal divisions within the European Union. At the same time, Europe is China’s key economic partner and an ‘economic pillar’ supporting China’s growth on the international stage. Beijing strives to maintain Europe’s open attitude towards the Chinese economy, in particular its exports, technology transfer to China, location of investments and diversification of China’s currency reserves. Cooperation with Europe and support from Europe are necessary to enable China to improve its position in the international economic and financial system, mainly in order to legitimise China’s actions in the area of multilateralism and global governance. Similarly, Beijing attaches great importance to maintaining Europe’s non-involvement in two issues: China’s core interests and Chinese-American relations.

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At crossroads. Current problems of Russia’s gas sector

Author(s): Szymon Kardas / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2017

The Russian gas sector has found itself in a difficult situation. The mounting challenges and problems are primarily the consequence of the sector’s politicisation, the growing rivalry between Gazprom and the so-called independent gas producers, changes on external gas markets and the absence of reforms, which have been repeatedly postponed. Because Gazprom serves as an internal and foreign policy instrument and a source of revenues for the Russian elite, economic calculations or the interests of the sector as a whole have often been ignored by the state. This has led to problems in the gas production sector and challenges in external markets. The purpose of this paper is to present the current condition of the Russian gas sector and its prospects. To a limited extent, the paper also discusses the wider context of the changes that occurred in the Russian gas sector in the years 2000-2016.

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Bałtowie wielu prędkości. Wzmacnianie potencjału obronnego Litwy, Łotwy i Estonii

Author(s): Piotr Szymanski / Language(s): Polish / Publication Year: 2017

Państwa bałtyckie z perspektywy Zachodu i Rosji często traktowane są jako spójny region. Jednak odmienne potencjały gospodarczo-demograficzne, kultury strategiczne i położenie geograficzne wpływają na różnice w ich modelach obronnych. Estonia rozwija armię poborową z dużymi zdolnościami mobilizacyjnymi, Łotwa stawia na armię zawodową z niewielką przeszkoloną rezerwą, a Litwa zdecydowała się na połączenie obu modeli.

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Between co-operation and membership. Sweden and Finland’s relations with NATO

Author(s): Justyna Gotkowska,Piotr Szymanski / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2017

Sweden and Finland’s membership in NATO would significantly improve the level of security in the Baltic Sea region in the long-term by changing the politico-military imbalance that is currently in Russia’s favour. However, it is unlikely that Stockholm and Helsinki will change their non-alignment policy in the coming years. They will rather focus on enhancing politico-military co-operation with NATO. This has grown in importance to both countries in recent years in line with rising uncertainty in the region. The Swedish and Finnish wish for more substance in their military relations with NATO will however be met with increasing limitations as allied activity in the Baltic Sea region is focusing on collective defence and the two countries are not member states. Despite the positive effect Sweden and Finland’s cooperation with NATO exerts on the region’s security, it also has negative implications. It does not eliminate the uncertainty about the scope of the two countries’ co-operation with the alliance in the case of a military conflict. It offers Stockholm an illusory sense of security, slowing down the pace of investments in defence; and for Helsinki it is rather an element of its deterrence policy towards Russia than a genuinely considered alternative.

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Bolesna adaptacja. Społeczne skutki kryzysu w Rosji

Author(s): Jan Strzelecki / Language(s): Polish / Publication Year: 2017

Rosyjska gospodarka znajduje się w kryzysie, który dla społeczeństwa okazał się szczególnie dotkliwy. Ze względu na wysoką inflację i spadek płac realnych kryzys pogorszył sytuację materialną wszystkich klas społecznych. Uderzył w bytowe podstawy najaktywniejszych politycznie segmentów wielkomiejskiej klasy średniej. Dla dużej części społeczeństwa oznacza trwałą degradację i konieczność koncentracji na fizycznym przetrwaniu w warunkach biedy i ubóstwa. Pogorszenie nastrojów społecznych, które nastąpiło wskutek kryzysu, powoduje niekiedy powstawanie punktowych protestów o podłożu bytowym. W większości społeczeństwo nie manifestuje jednak niezadowolenia, lecz adaptuje się do nowych warunków, koncentrując się na indywidualnych strategiach przetrwania poprzez ograniczenie konsumpcji. Taktyka władz mająca ograniczać prawdopodobieństwo kolejnych protestów polega przede wszystkim na wzmacnianiu aparatu represji i państwowej propagandy, co przyczynia się do atomizacji społeczeństwa i utrudnia jego samoorganizację.

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China vs. Central Asia. The achievements of the past two decades

Author(s): Aleksandra Jarosiewicz,Krzysztof Strachota / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2013

The collapse of the USSR brought about conditions conducive to the dynamic development of relations between Central Asia and China. These relations have evolved from deep mistrust to the continually growing Chinese presence primarily in the region’s economy but also increasingly in its politics. Central Asia is playing a growing role in those areas of the economy which China sees as strategic (in particular in energy and communications). China’s ambitions and capabilities with regard to new areas and its geopolitical competitors are also being tested here. For the time being, it can be said that China has achieved vast success: its offer is appealing for the region, and Beijing has outpaced its Western rivals and has seriously challenged Russia’s position in the region. It remains, however, an open question whether China will be able to maintain and secure its present achievements and trends, which will be a serious challenge given the eternal instability in the region and Russia’s reintegration ambitions.

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Chiny a Azja Centralna. Dorobek dwudziestolecia

Author(s): Aleksandra Jarosiewicz,Krzysztof Strachota / Language(s): Polish / Publication Year: 2013

Rozpad ZSRR stworzył warunki do dynamicznego rozwoju relacji między Azją Centralną a Chinami. Ewoluowały one od daleko posuniętej nieufności po stale rosnącą obecność Chin, przede wszystkim w gospodarce, ale również w coraz większym stopniu w polityce regionu. Azja Centralna odgrywa coraz większą rolę w strategicznych dla Chin kwestiach gospodarczych(zwłaszcza energetycznych, ale również komunikacyjnych). Tu także testowane są ambicje i możliwości Chin wobec stosunkowo nowych obszarów i wobec geopolitycznych konkurentów. Jak dotąd można mówić o ogromnym sukcesie Chin: ich oferta jest atrakcyjna dla regionu, Pekin zdystansował rywali zachodnich i poważnie zagroził pozycji Rosji w regionie. Otwartą kwestią pozostaje jednak zdolność Chin do utrwalenia i zabezpieczenia obecnych osiągnięć i trendów, co wobec chronicznej niestabilności regionu, ale także ambicji reintegracyjnych Rosji będzie poważnym wyzwaniem.

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Crisis in Russia. The degradation of the model of economic governance

Author(s): Maria Domanska / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2017

The present economic crisis in Russia is conditioned above all by political factors. The crisis is proof of a serious dysfunction of the model of economic governance which is subordinated to the government elite’s individual interests. Because oil prices were at a high level until 2014, this model could work at a relatively low social cost. However, now that the oil prices are remaining at a low level and given the lack of internal sources of long-term economic growth, the country is facing the risk of a long-lasting stagnation. It will lead to an inevitable degradation of the Russian economy and, above all, to a deterioration of the Russian public’s living standards. The government still does not intend to launch any structural reforms; its goal is to preserve the present system of control over the political and public sphere. Is a political crisis possible in Russia, given these conditions? Should the government be wary of a ‘colour revolution’ or a revolt among the elite?

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Demokracja oligarchiczna. Wpływ grup biznesowych na ukraińską politykę

Author(s): Slawomir Matuszak / Language(s): Polish / Publication Year: 2012

System oligarchiczny, który ostatecznie ukształtował się za czasów drugiej kadencji prezydenta Leonida Kuczmy, okazał się trwałym zjawiskiem. Charakter ścisłych relacji między władzą a oligarchami nie uległ większym zmianom ani w wyniku pomarańczowej rewolucji 2004 roku, ani po zwycięstwie Wiktora Janukowycza w wyborach prezydenckich w 2010. Choć co pewien czas dochodziło do pewnych przetasowań w elitach politycznych i biznesowych, nie wydaje się, aby przynajmniej w perspektywie średnioterminowej coś mogło zmienić system.Celem niniejszej pracy jest przedstawienie sieci powiązań pomiędzy wielkim biznesem i polityką na Ukrainie oraz wskazanie najważniejszych grup oligarchicznych oraz sił politycznych, które one wspierają. Zdecydowana większość opracowań o współczesnej ukraińskiej polityce, zazwyczaj ignoruje ten temat bądź traktuje go pobieżnie, tymczasem bez zrozumienia szeregu zależności między elitami politycznymi i biznesowymi niemożliwe jest zrozumienie współczesnej Ukrainy.

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Eurasian integration. Russia's attempt at the economic unification of the Post-Soviet area.

Author(s): Iwona Wisniewska / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2013

In 2009, Vladimir Putin, the then Russian prime minister, gave impetus to the establishment of closer relations within what was then a still narrow group of three countries: Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus. Russia was determined in embarking on the implementation of the principles of the Customs Union among these three states and, since 2012, within the Common Economic Space as well. This process of integration is intended to bring about the introduction of ‘four freedoms’ in this area: the free movement of goods, services, capital and labour. From Moscow’s point of view, building up such integration structures is especially necessary in order to counteract the economic expansion of the European Union and China. It also feels it is important to take measures against the loosening of the bonds between the CIS countries and Russia. At the same time, close co-operation is expected to guarantee for Russia that the strong politico-economic influences in this area will be maintained. Despite the numerous limitations of the integration process, such as the small number of the participating states or limited progress in implementing the CES, this is still the most advanced integration programme in the region seen since the collapse of the USSR. Progress in putting the rules of the Customs Union into practice can be seen as a success for Moscow. In turn, the formation of the CES is still at an early stage, and it is difficult to determine at this point to what extent the three countries will harmonise their markets.

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Ever further from Moscow. Russia's stance on Central Asia

Author(s): Wojciech Górecki / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2014

The post-Soviet countries of Central Asia are important for Moscow as a potential source of danger; as a site of its relationships with China, the West and the Islamic world; and not least as a space covered by Russia’s integration initiatives. Since the collapse of the USSR, Russian influence in this region has undergone a far-reaching erosion. The Kremlin’s consistent actions to build up the Eurasian Union, as well as the threat of destabilisation in region after the ISAF operation in Afghanistan winds up in 2014, have slowed down this process, although it is unlikely to be reversed. The current ‘state of possession’ (i.e. the instruments and assets which Russia possesses) still ensures Moscow a minimum level of control over the region, which means that the activity of other global players is limited. This situation may change in tandem with a rise in their ambitions, especially with the possible involvement of China in the field of ‘hard’ security.

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Federacja bez federalizmu. Stosunki Moskwa - regiony

Author(s): Jadwiga Rogoza / Language(s): Polish / Publication Year: 2014

Regiony Federacji Rosyjskiej są niezwykle zróżnicowane geograficznie i ekonomicznie oraz pod względem tożsamości narodowej, świadomości obywatelskiej i aktywności politycznej. Mamy w istocie do czynienia z „Rosją kilku prędkości”: obok regionów postindustrialnych, które cechuje nie tylko wyższy poziom życia, ale i koncentracja kapitału społecznego i zapotrzebowanie na pluralizm w polityce, występują regiony niezamożne, inercyjne, uzależnione od dotacji z centrum. W wyniku prowadzonej od 2000 roku polityki centralizacji zakres autonomii regionów został radykalnie zredukowany. Polityka ta uderza w samodzielność i efektywność kierujących nimi elit i utrudnia regionom czerpanie korzyści ze swoich przewag konkurencyjnych (zasobów, lokalizacji), a jej wymiernym skutkiem jest stale spadająca liczba regionów-donatorów. Obecny model promuje postawę regionu jako biernego petenta, któremu łatwiej jest zabiegać o wsparcie centrum w zamian za demonstrację lojalności, niż wprowadzać skomplikowane zmiany systemowe sprzyjające rozwojowi regionu. Kontrola Moskwy nad regionami – polityczna, ekonomiczna i administracyjna – jest obecnie tak gruntowna, że stoi w sprzeczności z formalnie istniejącym w Rosji ustrojem federalnym.

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Federation without federalism. Relations between Moscow and the regions

Author(s): Jadwiga Rogoza / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2014

The regions of the Russian Federation are immensely diverse economically and geographically as well as when it comes to their national identity, civic awareness and political activity. We are in fact dealing with a ‘multi-speed Russia’: along with the post-industrial regions with their higher living standards and a need for pluralism in politics, there are poverty-stricken, inertial regions, dependent on subsidies from the centre. As a result of the policy of centralisation pursued by the Kremlin since 2000, the autonomy of the regions has been reduced fundamentally. This has affected the performance of the regional elites and made it difficult for the regions to use their natural advantages (such as resources or location) to their benefit. One of the effects of this policy has been the constantly decreasing number of the donor regions. The current model promotes the role of the region as a passive supplicant, for whom it is easier to seek support from the central government, offering loyalty in exchange, than to implement complex systemic reforms that would contribute to long-term development. Moscow’s control (political, economic and administrative) over the regions is currently so thorough that it contradicts the formally existing federal form of government in Russia.

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Germany's stance on the TTIP. Background, interests and concerns

Author(s): Konrad Poplawski / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2015

Co-operation between the United States and Germany has for many years been a subject of disputes. In addition to the differences over the US engagement in the resolution of international conflicts, bilateral relations have been strained as a consequence of the so-called Snowden scandal and the unproved allegations that Chancellor Angela Merkel’s telephone was wiretapped. The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership offers a chance for improving relations between Germany and the USA for the first time in many years. Companies from the two countries may benefit from the lifting of some barriers to transatlantic economic co-operation. Furthermore, the emergence of in fact an internal EU and US market, with reduced customs tariffs and harmonised legal and economic rules, will pressure the emerging economies to make their markets more open. The TTIP may create conditions for exporting US raw materials from unconventional sources to the European Union; and this will be a benefit of geopolitical significance for Germany. The German government is aware of the fact that diversification of supplies of fossil fuels will make Europe less dependent on pressure from Moscow.

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Greater Europe. Putin's Vision of the European (Dis)integration

Author(s): Marek Menkiszak / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2013

On several occasions since 2001 Vladimir Putin has raised the concept of ‘Greater Europe’, a partly-integrated common space comprising mainly Russia and the European Union. This concept has never been recast into a detailed political programme. While it has been championed as‘a Europe without dividing lines’, the concept would in practice permanently split Europe into two geopolitical blocs – the Western bloc of the European Union, with Germany in the dominant role, and the Eastern bloc, consisting of the emerging Eurasian Union, with Russia in a hegemonic position. In recent years Russia has undertaken a number of initiatives aimed at implementing some elements of the concept. However, most of these have failed to become reality. In this context, we should expect Russia’s policy to focus on implementing its priority project of Eurasian integration, based on the structures of the Customs Union/the Eurasian Union. The Greater Europe project, on the other hand, will be postponed until the time when, as Moscow believes, a weakened EU will be ready to accept Russian proposals.

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Hostages to Moscow, clients of Beijing. Security in Central Asia as the role of the West diminishes

Author(s): Maciej Falkowski / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2014

The end of the Western military presence in Central Asia will mean the West’s influence on the security sphere in the region will be marginalised and it will also actually withdraw from the geopolitical rivalry. With regard to the architecture of security, a more active stance from China should not be expected, as it is unwilling to confront Russia, is aware of its own limitations in this sphere and views the United States as its main global rival. In a timeframe of the next few years, Russia’s policy will be the decisive factor influencing the security system in the region. One of its goals will be a drive to strengthen its military presence and to widen cooperation within the Collective Security Treaty Organisation. Although it is likely that Russia will dominate the dimension of Central Asia’s security architecture, this will not be synonymous with Russia taking over actual responsibility for security and certainly not with it undertaking efforts to solve regional problems.

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