Search results for: OSW Studies in Series Title

2002 Parliamentary Elections in Ukraine. Events, Results, Consequences

Author(s): Tadeusz A. Olszanski / Language(s): English,Polish / Publication Year: 2003

On 31 March 2002, parliamentary elections were held in Ukraine. As expected, they were a major success for the centrist-rightist coalition focused around former Prime Minister Viktor Yuschenko. The communists emerged significantly weaker from the vote, and the "party of power" achieved a poor result. Yet, due to the mixed electoral law (half of the deputies were elected in single-mandate districts), the latter block, firmly supported by President Leonid Kuchma, resulted as the main force in Parliament. The results of particular parties and blocks were as follows: Viktor Yuschenko's Block received 23.57% of votes and 112 seats, the Communist Party of Ukraine - 19.98% of votes and 66 seats, the "For One Ukraine" block - 11.77% of votes and 101 seats, Yulia Tymoshenko's Block - 7.26% of votes and 22 seats, the Socialist Party of Ukraine - 6.87% of votes and 22 seats, and the Social Democratic Party of Ukraine (united) - 6.27% of votes and 24 seats. This shows how the mixed electoral regulations favour "For One Ukraine" and act against Yuschenko's block. One should note, however, that the latter gained the support of less than one quarter of voters.

A captive island: Kaliningrad between Moscow and the EU

Author(s): Jadwiga Rogoza,Agata Wierzbowska-Miazga,Iwona Wisniewska / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2012

The Kaliningrad region can be called a 'captive island', because of its specific geopolitical location - it is part of the Russian legal, political and economic space, yet it is geographically separated from the rest of the Russian Federation, and it is particularly open to co-operation with its neighbours in the European Union. Moscow is trying to compensate the region for its separation, offering it financial support and economic privileges.At the same time, it is sensitive to any potential challenges to Russia's territorial integrity - and the centre's desire for control over the region often limits the latter's potential for cooperation and internal development. This report presents the situation in the region, and is intended to help develop a model for its effective regional co-operation with its EU neighbours.

A quarter-century of independent Ukraine. Dimensions of transformation

Author(s): Tadeusz A. Olszanski / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2017

On 24 August 1991, the Supreme Council of the Ukrainian SSR proclaimed independence, and on 1 December the same year, the Ukrainian people ratified that proclamation in a referendum. The new Ukrainian state had some very important assets, such as the peaceful path that led to its independence, the fact that its territory was uncontested and its civilian administration was established. They downside, which determined Ukraine’s fundamental weaknesses, was that like the other former Soviet republics, it had been part of the Soviet state and had no central state bodies of its own, such as a general staff, a bank of issue, or most of the necessary ministries. After nearly a quarter century of peaceful development, interrupted by the outbreak of the war in 2014, Ukraine is still weak, but at the same time it has consolidated internally and internationally, demonstrated its capacity to withstand armed aggression, and is actively looking for its place in the world. The country’s greatest success has been to raise a new generation of ‘natural-born citizens’ of Ukraine, while its greatest failure has been to succumb to the dramatic population decline with irreversible consequences, and to allow the impoverishment of the lower strata of society, typical for all the post-Soviet states. The present paper is not a history of independent Ukraine, but an attempt to present the main mechanisms by which the former Soviet republic has transformed itself into an independent state with a market economy. It is therefore mainly focused on internal developments in Ukraine.

A region with special needs. The Russian Far East in Moscow’s policy

Author(s): Szymon Kardas / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2017

Although in the 1990s the Russian Far East was not an important region in Russian central government’s internal policy, when Vladimir Putin assumed the presidency it was declared strategically significant. However, Moscow has been unable to generate a tangible stimulus to the region’s development so far. This is partly due to the systemic problems existing in Russia as a whole: the lack of a consistent concept of economic development and the ineffective governance system, and on the other hand, of purely local barriers: staffing problems, the decentralised energy system and the limited engagement of foreign investors. At present, there is no risk of the region’s marginalisation like in the 1990s. However, it appears that political reintegration of the region with the centre of the federation (tighter institutional control from Moscow) and the status of a stable raw material base for Asian countries, currently represents the maximum development potential of the Russian Far East.

A summary of the politico-economic changes taking place during Vladimir Putin's first term of office /// Chechnya and Russia: The significance of the Chechen problem for contemporary Russia

Author(s): Jadwiga Rogoza,Iwona Wisniewska,Maciej Falkowski / Language(s): English,Polish / Publication Year: 2003

Following his rise to power in 2000, Vladimir Putin presented a comprehensive socio-economic program for the development of Russia through to 20101. This program was prepared by a team of economic experts from the Centre for Strategic Studies (CS S )2 led by St. Petersburg's German Gref. In spite of the fact that this document was never accepted in its entirety, and only its main assumptions were approved, as of 2000, short- and medium-term socio-economic government program have been based on the same principles.The medium-term goal of this development strategy through to 2010 was the reduction of the widening gap between Russia and developed nations. The long-term goal, on the other hand, was the restoration and strengthening of Russia's position as a leader on the global scale. The reforms of Russia's political system, social policy and the modernisation of the economy were intended to help achieve these goals.The aim of this study is to describe and analyse political and socio-economic reforms, as well as non-legislative changes initiated under Vladimir Putin's presidency. New reform activities will probably not be initiated over the six months remaining until the presidential elections. For this reason, it is already possible to summarise the changes achieved in the political, economic and social spheres during President Putin's first term of office.A description of the political and economic reforms and also of non-legislative changes, which took place in the Russian Federation over the past three and a half years, has been included in Part I of this study. The conclusion hereof attempts to summarise the actual achievements of President Putin's team, and to answer the question concerning perspectives of the reform process and factors determining the shape there of.

An essential partner in the background. Europe in China's policy during the rule of Xi Jinping

Author(s): Marcin Kaczmarski / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2016

Chinese elites do not treat Europe as an equal partner and are convinced that China holds the upper hand over Europe. They see a growing asymmetry in bilateral relations. China’s sense of its own potential is boosted by internal divisions within the European Union. At the same time, Europe is China’s key economic partner and an ‘economic pillar’ supporting China’s growth on the international stage. Beijing strives to maintain Europe’s open attitude towards the Chinese economy, in particular its exports, technology transfer to China, location of investments and diversification of China’s currency reserves. Cooperation with Europe and support from Europe are necessary to enable China to improve its position in the international economic and financial system, mainly in order to legitimise China’s actions in the area of multilateralism and global governance. Similarly, Beijing attaches great importance to maintaining Europe’s non-involvement in two issues: China’s core interests and Chinese-American relations.

Armed Conflicts in the Post-soviet Region. Present Situation, Prospects for Settlement. Consequences

Author(s): Krzysztof Strachota / Language(s): English,Polish / Publication Year: 2003

1. Unresolved conflicts continue to smoulder in Transnistria, Chechnya, Abkhazia, Nagorno-Karabakh and South Ossetia. "Para-states" have formed in most conflict-affected areas. These have grown to become permanent players in the region. In Chechnya, guerrilla fights continue in the wake of the Russian army's siege of the republic. The conflict in Tajikistan ended in 1997 and the normalisation process is currently under way. 2. Each of these conflicts has entailed profound political, social, ethnic and economic changes, as well as affecting other spheres of life. Presently, it is impossible to return to the pre-conflict situation. The "para-states" have fortified their independence and are no longer controlled by the external powers on which they depended in the initial phases of the conflicts. 3. Unresolved conflicts, including those of Transnistria, Chechnya, Abkhazia, Nagorno-Karabakh, South Ossetia and, until recently, Tajikistan, have an adverse effect on the situation in the region. They hinder political and economic development of the affected countries, lead to the brutalisation of political life and breed instability by providing save havens for organised crime, terrorism, etc. They are also the cause of large-scale migration problems. However, with time, these negative effects become less and less turbulent. 4. So far, attempts at solving most of the conflicts (Transnistria, Abkhazia, Nagorno-Karabakh, South Ossetia) have failed to produce results other than cease-fires. Permanent settlement could not be achieved, neither through the use of force nor by way of negotiation. The power and independence of the "para-states", hard-line leaderships on both sides, and finally, military weakness of the metropolises consolidate the state of suspension. The conflict in Tajikistan was settled using political methods, and the normalisation process is progressing in a satisfactory manner. Chechnya has been conquered militarily by Russian troops and Moscow is now implementing its model of imposed "normalisation", but it does not have full control over the republic and cannot contain the growing problems induced by the conflict, such as the emergence of Chechen terrorism. 5. Some of the negative consequences of the conflicts are gradually being abated by the evolution in Russia's policy towards them (Russia is gradually ceasing playing on the conflicts as foreign policy instruments and is shifting towards political and economic measures). Also instrumental to this are the increasing involvement of the US and, to a smaller extent, the EU, in regional security (as part of their struggle against terrorism), as well as the growing strength of state systems and the development of political and economic co-operation between the conflict-affected republics (for example, the construction of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, the TRACECA programme). In the longer term, these tendencies may also help in resolving the actual conflicts themselves.

At crossroads. Current problems of Russia’s gas sector

Author(s): Szymon Kardas / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2017

The Russian gas sector has found itself in a difficult situation. The mounting challenges and problems are primarily the consequence of the sector’s politicisation, the growing rivalry between Gazprom and the so-called independent gas producers, changes on external gas markets and the absence of reforms, which have been repeatedly postponed. Because Gazprom serves as an internal and foreign policy instrument and a source of revenues for the Russian elite, economic calculations or the interests of the sector as a whole have often been ignored by the state. This has led to problems in the gas production sector and challenges in external markets. The purpose of this paper is to present the current condition of the Russian gas sector and its prospects. To a limited extent, the paper also discusses the wider context of the changes that occurred in the Russian gas sector in the years 2000-2016.

Bałtowie wielu prędkości. Wzmacnianie potencjału obronnego Litwy, Łotwy i Estonii

Author(s): Piotr Szymanski / Language(s): Polish / Publication Year: 2017

Państwa bałtyckie z perspektywy Zachodu i Rosji często traktowane są jako spójny region. Jednak odmienne potencjały gospodarczo-demograficzne, kultury strategiczne i położenie geograficzne wpływają na różnice w ich modelach obronnych. Estonia rozwija armię poborową z dużymi zdolnościami mobilizacyjnymi, Łotwa stawia na armię zawodową z niewielką przeszkoloną rezerwą, a Litwa zdecydowała się na połączenie obu modeli.

Between co-operation and membership. Sweden and Finland’s relations with NATO

Author(s): Justyna Gotkowska,Piotr Szymanski / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2017

Sweden and Finland’s membership in NATO would significantly improve the level of security in the Baltic Sea region in the long-term by changing the politico-military imbalance that is currently in Russia’s favour. However, it is unlikely that Stockholm and Helsinki will change their non-alignment policy in the coming years. They will rather focus on enhancing politico-military co-operation with NATO. This has grown in importance to both countries in recent years in line with rising uncertainty in the region. The Swedish and Finnish wish for more substance in their military relations with NATO will however be met with increasing limitations as allied activity in the Baltic Sea region is focusing on collective defence and the two countries are not member states. Despite the positive effect Sweden and Finland’s cooperation with NATO exerts on the region’s security, it also has negative implications. It does not eliminate the uncertainty about the scope of the two countries’ co-operation with the alliance in the case of a military conflict. It offers Stockholm an illusory sense of security, slowing down the pace of investments in defence; and for Helsinki it is rather an element of its deterrence policy towards Russia than a genuinely considered alternative.

Big business in the Russian economy and politics under Putin's rule /// The Russian power industry shortly before reforms /// Ukrainian metallurgy: the economic link in the oligarchic power system

Author(s): Iwona Wisniewska,Ewa Paszyc,Arkadiusz Sarna / Language(s): English,Polish / Publication Year: 2002

Bolesna adaptacja. Społeczne skutki kryzysu w Rosji

Author(s): Jan Strzelecki / Language(s): Polish / Publication Year: 2017

Rosyjska gospodarka znajduje się w kryzysie, który dla społeczeństwa okazał się szczególnie dotkliwy. Ze względu na wysoką inflację i spadek płac realnych kryzys pogorszył sytuację materialną wszystkich klas społecznych. Uderzył w bytowe podstawy najaktywniejszych politycznie segmentów wielkomiejskiej klasy średniej. Dla dużej części społeczeństwa oznacza trwałą degradację i konieczność koncentracji na fizycznym przetrwaniu w warunkach biedy i ubóstwa. Pogorszenie nastrojów społecznych, które nastąpiło wskutek kryzysu, powoduje niekiedy powstawanie punktowych protestów o podłożu bytowym. W większości społeczeństwo nie manifestuje jednak niezadowolenia, lecz adaptuje się do nowych warunków, koncentrując się na indywidualnych strategiach przetrwania poprzez ograniczenie konsumpcji. Taktyka władz mająca ograniczać prawdopodobieństwo kolejnych protestów polega przede wszystkim na wzmacnianiu aparatu represji i państwowej propagandy, co przyczynia się do atomizacji społeczeństwa i utrudnia jego samoorganizację.

China vs. Central Asia. The achievements of the past two decades

Author(s): Aleksandra Jarosiewicz,Krzysztof Strachota / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2013

The collapse of the USSR brought about conditions conducive to the dynamic development of relations between Central Asia and China. These relations have evolved from deep mistrust to the continually growing Chinese presence primarily in the region’s economy but also increasingly in its politics. Central Asia is playing a growing role in those areas of the economy which China sees as strategic (in particular in energy and communications). China’s ambitions and capabilities with regard to new areas and its geopolitical competitors are also being tested here. For the time being, it can be said that China has achieved vast success: its offer is appealing for the region, and Beijing has outpaced its Western rivals and has seriously challenged Russia’s position in the region. It remains, however, an open question whether China will be able to maintain and secure its present achievements and trends, which will be a serious challenge given the eternal instability in the region and Russia’s reintegration ambitions.

Chiny a Azja Centralna. Dorobek dwudziestolecia

Author(s): Aleksandra Jarosiewicz,Krzysztof Strachota / Language(s): Polish / Publication Year: 2013

Rozpad ZSRR stworzył warunki do dynamicznego rozwoju relacji między Azją Centralną a Chinami. Ewoluowały one od daleko posuniętej nieufności po stale rosnącą obecność Chin, przede wszystkim w gospodarce, ale również w coraz większym stopniu w polityce regionu. Azja Centralna odgrywa coraz większą rolę w strategicznych dla Chin kwestiach gospodarczych(zwłaszcza energetycznych, ale również komunikacyjnych). Tu także testowane są ambicje i możliwości Chin wobec stosunkowo nowych obszarów i wobec geopolitycznych konkurentów. Jak dotąd można mówić o ogromnym sukcesie Chin: ich oferta jest atrakcyjna dla regionu, Pekin zdystansował rywali zachodnich i poważnie zagroził pozycji Rosji w regionie. Otwartą kwestią pozostaje jednak zdolność Chin do utrwalenia i zabezpieczenia obecnych osiągnięć i trendów, co wobec chronicznej niestabilności regionu, ale także ambicji reintegracyjnych Rosji będzie poważnym wyzwaniem.

Crisis in Russia. The degradation of the model of economic governance

Author(s): Maria Domanska / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2017

The present economic crisis in Russia is conditioned above all by political factors. The crisis is proof of a serious dysfunction of the model of economic governance which is subordinated to the government elite’s individual interests. Because oil prices were at a high level until 2014, this model could work at a relatively low social cost. However, now that the oil prices are remaining at a low level and given the lack of internal sources of long-term economic growth, the country is facing the risk of a long-lasting stagnation. It will lead to an inevitable degradation of the Russian economy and, above all, to a deterioration of the Russian public’s living standards. The government still does not intend to launch any structural reforms; its goal is to preserve the present system of control over the political and public sphere. Is a political crisis possible in Russia, given these conditions? Should the government be wary of a ‘colour revolution’ or a revolt among the elite?

Cross-border Co-operation at the new Eastern Border of the European Union /// Russian-speakers in Latvia and Estonia /// The Eastern External Border of the Enlarged European Union

Author(s): Rafal Sadowski,Joanna Hyndle-Hussein,Miryna Kutysz,Bartosz Cichocki / Language(s): English,Polish / Publication Year: 2004

I. The new eastern border of the European Union The European Union's new border with Eastern European countries, Russia, Belarus and Ukraine, is approximately 3000 km long. It has vital meaning for the Union in terms of security as well as for social and economic reasons. Unlike the southern maritime border of the EU, the eastern land border poses a number of different challenges. These pertain, above all, to issues of ''soft security'' (i.e. smuggling, illegal migration, organised crime, etc.), but also to the fact that all the most important communication and trade routes connecting Europe with Eurasia cross this boundary. The borderline goes through areas inhabited by people of similar cultural and historical backgrounds, who are, in a way, socially and ethnically related. It therefore plays a much greater role in social terms than the southern border. The northern part of Estonian-Russian borderland on the Estonian side is mostly inhabited by Russians, and in the southern part on both sides by the Setu ethnic group. A Belarussian minority lives in the border regions of Latvia (the Daugavpils and Kraslava regions), Lithuania, and Poland (the area around Bialystok and Biala Podlaska). On the other hand, Poles live in the western part of Belarus (the Hrodna and Brest districts) and Ukraine (the Lviv district). In turn, Ukrainians live in eastern Slovakia. The Trans-Carpathian region of Ukraine is partly inhabited by Hungarians. The EU border also divides communities which used to live in one country in Soviet times and have preserved social ties (the Baltic States' borders with Russia and Belarus). A characteristic of the areas on both sides of the new EU eastern border is its peripheral nature. Mostly rural communities whose economic indicators are much worse than in the rest of the country, they are also undersubsidised regions, with substantially higher unemployment levels than the country average, and lacking large industrial centres (except for the cities of Narva, Hrodna, Brest, Bialystok, Lublin and Lviv). This peripheral character contributes to the development of cross-border contacts and mutual attraction, especially in business terms. Cross-border trade, both legal and illegal, is an important source of income for local inhabitants.