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A Country with non-Existent Unemployment. The Special Characteristics of the Czech Labour Market

Author(s): Krzysztof Dębiec / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2019

Since 2016, the Czech Republic has had the lowest unemployment rate among all EU member states (cf. Chart 1). In mid-2017, it overtook Japan to reach the top position in the ranking of OECD member states. This situation adversely affects companies which are looking for ways to cope with workforce shortages. One solution is the automation of production processes, but employers are also appealing for the country to become more open to receiving immigrant workers, above all from Ukraine. The trade unions are opposed to this, fearing that an influx of workers from other countries will slow down the rate of increase of wages. At the same time, there is a debate in the Czech Republic about the degree to which the present economic model contributes to the country catching up with the Western economies and what should be done to speed up the convergence.

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A neighbour discovered anew. The Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary’s relations with Ukraine

Author(s): Jakub Groszkowski,Tadeusz Iwański,Andrzej Sadecki / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2017

The Ukrainian-Russian war has prompted Bratislava, Prague and Budapest to take a new look at their eastern neighbourhood. Cooperation with Ukraine is gaining momentum, although relations with Russia are still the top priority for the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary. Diplomatic contacts with Kyiv have been rekindled, and the Visegrad Group has intensified its political support for Ukraine within the EU. The big success in the relationship between the V4 countries and Ukraine has been their booming energy cooperation. However, the pro-Russian gestures made by some leading politicians from the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary remain a challenge for relations between Bratislava, Budapest, Prague and Kyiv. Co-operation between Budapest and Kyiv is further complicated by the dispute over the Hungarian minority in Ukraine. Kyiv's top priority in foreign policy has traditionally been cooperation with wealthier countries, as well as those states seen as the key players in NATO and the EU (especially the US, Germany and France). Kyiv treats the Visegrad Group primarily as a useful forum for lobbying for Ukraine's interests in the EU and NATO. On the other hand, it is less interested in using the V4 as a platform for strengthening regional and bilateral cooperation with the countries of Central Europe.

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Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Nagorno-Karabakh: unfrozen conflicts between Russia and the West

Author(s): Wojciech Bartuzi,Katarzyna Pełczyńska-Nałęcz,Krzysztof Strachota / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2008

The Southern Caucasus is the site of three armed conflicts with separatist backgrounds, which have remained unsolved for years: the conflicts in Georgia's Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and Azerbaijan's conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh (including the areas around Nagorno-Karabakh which were seized by Armenian separatists in the course of the war). Neither Georgia nor Azerbaijan have had any control over the disputed areas since the early 1990s. Both states are simultaneously in conflict with the separatists' informal patrons, respectively Russia and Armenia.

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Belarus 2006

Author(s): Rafał Sadowski / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2007

The presidential election of 19 March 2006, which Alyaksandr Lukashenka won, played an important role in developing the dictatorial political regime in Belarus. In order to ensure Lukashenka's victory, the authorities employed repressive and undemocratic methods, which since then have become permanent elements of the political system in Belarus. They included legal and administrative measures to limit the citizens' freedom, arbitrary ways of applying these measures, actions by the state security institutions intended to intimidate the public, a large-scale state propaganda campaign, and restrictions on civil liberties and freedom of speech. The presidential election strengthened Alyaksandr Lukashenka's political position, as the president extended his rule by another five years to 2011. It also reinforced the repression apparatus, consolidated the ruling group and ensured that the democrats remained marginalised. This has ensured the stability of the Belarusian regime and preserved the country's specific political and economic system.This report aims to present the situation in Belarus since the presidential election in March 2006.Part I, devoted to the internal situation, is a description of the internal political scene, i.e. the ruling camp and the opposition. It also includes a section on the prevailing moods in Belarusian society. Another section presents the economic situation in Belarus and the government's economic policy.Part II examines the foreign relations of Belarus, and consists of two sections: the first describes the Belarusian government's relations with Russia, its single most important foreign partner, and the second its relations with Western countries, i.e. the EU member states and NATO countries. Finally, the last part contains predictions of future developments in Belarus.

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Between energy security and energy market integration

Author(s): Zuzanna Brunarska,Aleksandra Jarosiewicz,Agata Loskot-Strachota,Iwona Wiśniewska / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2011

For many years the European Union has been improving the efficient use of energy resources and yet the demand for energy in the EU continues to increase. When Europe belonged to one of the world’s key energy markets with relatively easy access to energy resources, growing energy needs were not seen as a source of concern. Today, however, as the competition for energy resources is intensifying and the global position of the EU energy market is being challenged by growing economies in the developing countries, above all China and India, the EU needs to adopt bold policies to guarantee the sustainable supply of energy.This report argues the EU needs to develop a fully-fledged external energy policy; i.e. a common, coherent, strategic approach that build bridges between the interests and needs of the EU integrated energy market on the one hand and supplier countries on the other.The EU’s external energy policy has two main objectives. The first one is to ensure a sustainable, stable and cost-effective energy supply. The second is to promote energy market integration and regulatory convergence with neighbouring countries (often but not always this supports the achievement of the first objective). However, in order to improve its effectiveness, the EU’s external energy policy needs to be seen in a broader economic and political context. Any progress in energy cooperation with third countries is contingent upon the EU’s general stance and offer to those countries.

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Chasing globalisation. Germany's economic relations with the BRIC countries

Author(s): Konrad Popławski / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2013

The Eurozone crisis has forced German exporters to speed up their expansion onto the emerging markets, in particular Brazil, Russia, India and China. The development observed in those countries has become an important substitute for the consequences of the economic slowdown in Europe.To illustrate the scale of cooperation between Germany and the BRIC countries, it is enough to quote figures concerning Germany’s trade. Between 2000-2011 the share of trade with the BRIC states in the entire German trade exchange rose from 5.5% to 13.3%. In the same period opposite tendencies were observed in the figures relating to trade with the USA, whose share in German trade fell from 9.6% to 6.2%.The report discusses the major tendencies present in Germany’s cooperation with the BRIC countries, and examines how the German state supports German companies in their business activities on these markets. The main method used to investigate these processes is the economic analysis of trade and capital flows between Germany and the BRIC countries, supplemented by conclusions drawn from discussions with German experts.The main issue discussed in the text is the role of the state in stimulating the expansion of German companies onto the BRIC markets. In the context of these activities, political relations and the proper use of export and investment guarantees and development aid are of major importance.

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Closing the gap? Military co-operation from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea

Author(s): Tomasz Dąborowski,Mateusz Gniazdowski,Justyna Gotkowska,Jakub Groszkowski,Andrzej Sadecki,Andrzej Wilk / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2012

The contracting defence budgets in Europe, the difficulties in developing the EU’s security policy, NATO's transformation, the reorientation of US security policy and the problems experienced by European defence industries – all together have in recent years created an increased interest in political, military and military-technological co-operation in Europe.It has manifested itself in concepts of closer co-operation within NATO and the EU (smart defence and pooling&sharing), bilateral and multilateral initiatives outside the structures of NATO and the EU (such as the Nordic Defence Co-operation or the Franco-British co-operation) and debates about the prerequisites, principles and objectives of bilateral, multilateral and regional security and defence co-operation. The present report aims to analyse the potential for security and defence co-operation among selected countries in the area between the Baltic Sea and the Black Sea, i.e. the Nordic states (Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden), the Baltic states (Lithuania Latvia and Estonia), Poland's partners in the Visegrad Group (the Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovakia) as well as Romania and Bulgaria. The authors were guided by the assumption that those states are Poland's natural partners for closer regional military co-operation. It may complement ‘the Western’ direction of Poland's security and defence policy, i.e. relations with the partners from the Weimar Triangle and the US. Its goal is not to replace the existing security structures but rather to strengthen military capabilities in the region within NATO and the EU.

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Development co-operation made in Germany

Author(s): Kamil Frymark / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2015

For years, development policy has attracted the attention of public opinion in Germany and been strongly supported by the public. It takes the form of an agreement between equal partners who draw mutual benefits from this co-operation. German development policy is structured to support the German economy. This policy and the state’s significant share in development projects reduces the investment risk incurred by German entrepreneurs who engage their assets in developing countries. Furthermore, bilateral co-operation successfully builds the made in Germany brand as regards both development policy and further economic co-operation, making the beneficiaries of development co-operation indirectly dependent on German goods and services. Development co-operation, along with diplomacy and defence policy, is the third pillar of German foreign policy. In this context it plays above all a preventive function in the case of international conflicts. Investing funds as part of development projects in areas affected by military conflicts or facing a high risk of military conflict is viewed by Germany as its contribution to overcoming crises or removing their causes. This goes hand in hand with the conviction that international conflicts, wherever they appear, adversely affect the German economy, which heavily relies on exports.

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Fortress Kaliningrad. Ever closer to Moscow

Author(s): Maria Domańska,Szymon Kardaś,Marek Menkiszak,Jadwiga Rogoża,Andrzej Wilk,Iwona Wiśniewska,Piotr Żochowski / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2019

The Kaliningrad Oblast is a Russian exclave separated from the Russian Federation by the territories of Poland and Lithuania (both of which are EU and NATO member states) and of Belarus. It is the only part of Russia that has a border with Poland and Lithuania. Its geopolitical location makes Kaliningrad Oblast an important Russian outpost in the northern part of Central Europe. It is therefore strategically important for Russia, as well as for Poland and Lithuania and the entire region. For this reason, the Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW) considers monitoring the political, social, economic, energy, security and military situation in the Kaliningrad Oblast to be one of the priority areas of its analytic work.

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Gazprom’s expansion in the EU: co-operation or domination?

Author(s): Agata Loskot-Strachota / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2009

The energy sector, especially with regard to the gas trade, is one of the key areas of co-operation between the EU and Russia. However, the form this co-operation has taken has been giving rise to some concern, both in Brussels and in the EU member states. Questions arise as to whether the EU has not become excessively dependent on Russia for energy, and whether the presence of the Russian gas monopoly in the EU does not enable Russian interference with the development of EU energy policy. The objective of this series of OSW reports is to provide facts which will permit an accurat answer to these questions to be formulated.

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Gazprom's expansion in the EU: co-operation or domination?

Author(s): Agata Loskot-Strachota,Katarzyna Pełczyńska-Nałęcz / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2008

The energy sector, especially with regard to natural gas trade, is one of the key areas of co-operation between the EU and Russia. However, the character of this co-operation has given rise to increasing doubts both in Brussels and among the EU member states. The questions have emerged whether this co-operation does not make the EU excessively dependent on Russian energy supplies, and whether Gazprom's presence in the EU will not allow Moscow to interfere in the proces of devising the EU energy policy. This report is intended to present the factual base and data necessary to provide accurate answers to the foregoing questions. The first part of the report presents the scope and character of Gazprom's economic presence in the EU member states. The second part shows the presence of the EU investors in Russia. The data presented has been provided by the International Energy Agency, European Commission, the Central Bank of Russia and the Russian Federal State Statistics Service. Some of the data is the result of calculations made by the Centre for Eastern Studies' experts who were basing on the data provided by energy companies, the specialist press and news agencies.

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Germany's energy transformation: difficult beginnings

Author(s): Marta Zawilska-Florczuk,Konrad Popławski,Piotr Buras / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2012

Initiated in May 2011, several months after the Fukushima nuclear disaster, Germany’s energy transformation (Energiewende) has been presented as an irrevocable plan, and – due to the speed of change required – it represents a new quality in Germany’s energy strategy. Its main objectives include: nuclear energy being phased out by 2022, the development of renewable energy sources (OZE), the expansion of transmission networks, the construction of new conventional power plants and an improvement in energy efficiency.The cornerstone of the strategy is the development of renewable energy. Under Germany's amended renewable energy law, the proportion of renewable energy in electricity generation is supposed to increase steadily from the current level of around 20% to approximately 38% in 2020. In 2030, renewable energy is expected to account for 50% of electricity generation. This is expected to increase to 65% in 2040 and to as much as 80% in 2050. The impact of the Energiewende is not limited to the sphere of energy supplies. In the medium and long term, it will change not only to the way the German economy operates, but also the functioning of German society and the state. Facing difficulties with the expansion of transmission networks, the excessive cost of building wind farms, and problems with the stability of electricity supplies, especially during particularly cold winters, the federal government has so far tended to centralise power and limit the independence of the German federal states with regard to their respective energy policies, justifying this with the need for greater co-ordination. The Energiewende may also become the beginning of a "third industrial revolution", i.e. a transition to a green economy and a society based on sustainable development. This will require a new "social contract" that will redefine the relations between the state, society and the economy. Negotiating such a contract will be one of the greatest challenges for German policy in the coming years.

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Homo Jihadicus

Author(s): Maciej Falkowski,Józef Lang / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2015

The post-Soviet area, along with the countries of the Middle East, North Africa and Western Europe, have become one of the main global exporters of Islamic militants. Currently on the territory of Syria, and to a lesser extent of Iraq, there are several thousands of foreign fighters from the post-Soviet states. The causes of the war migration from the former USSR states to the Middle East have their roots in the dynamic changes taking place inside Islam in the post-Soviet area: primarily the growth of Salafism and militant Islam, as well as the internationalisation and globalisation of the local Islam. The deep political, economic, social and ideological changes which Muslims underwent after the collapse of the USSR, led to the creation of a specific group within them, for which Islam in its radical form became the main element of their identity. Homo sovieticus, without fully eradicating his Soviet part, became Homo jihadicus who not only identifies himself with the global Ummah, but is also ready to leave his country and join jihad beyond its borders in the name of the professed ideas.

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How far do the borders of the West extend? Russian/Polish strategic conflicts in the period 1990-2010

Author(s): Katarzyna Pełczyńska-Nałęcz / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2010

From a historical perspective, the last two decades can almost be regarded as a 'golden age' of Polish-Russian relations. This is the first time in several centuries that a sovereign Poland and Russia have been able to develop mutual relations without resorting to force; moreover, they have established a bilateral legal basis and put into practice its provisions on "the inviolability of borders, territorial integrity, non-interference with internal affairs and the nations' right to self-determination.This does not change the fact that since 1990 the atmosphere between the two countries has much more often been chilly and tense. Contrary to the widely-held belief, Polish-Russian conflicts do not stem from genetic Russophobia on the part of Poland, or irrational prejudice on the part of Russia. Their substance is real and concerns strategic issues. At the deepest level, though, this is a dispute about how far the borders of the Western world extend, and about the Russian Federation's sphere of influence. However, it is not a clash between two states; moreover, Poland is certainly not the most important actor in this regard, although due to the historical context and its geographic location, it is one of the countries that lies closest to the 'line of contact', and is therefore particularly entangled in the disagreement.

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How far do the borders of the West extend?Russian/Polish strategic conflicts in the period 1990-2010

Author(s): Katarzyna Pełczyńska-Nałęcz / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2010

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Industry 4.0. Germany’s New Industrial Policy

Author(s): Konrad Popławski,Rafał Bajczuk / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2019

The Fourth Industrial Revolution is characterised by the extensive use of the internet and the computerisation & roboticisation of all spheres of the economy. Its symbols today are smartphones and electric cars, but in the near future we will witness the creation and use of smart cities, smart electrical grids and smart factories. Today’s industry is changing at an unprecedented rate. The earlier industrial revolutions, i.e. periods of fundamental changes in the modes of production and communication, proceeded at a much slower pace than those we are observing today. The first industrial revolution utilised coal and steam to mechanise production and transport. The second disseminated the means of mass production by the use of electricity and the internal combustion engine. The third, digital revolution, which began in the middle of the last century, automated industrial production and globalised communication. The German economy, which reached a very high level of sophistication in the industries of the first and second industrial revolutions – in heavy industry, electronics and the automotive branch – did not benefit so greatly from the digital revolution.

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Islamic State in Germany, Germans in Islamic State. Germany’s Homegrown Jihadists

Author(s): Artur Ciechanowicz / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2017

In Germany, Islamic radicalism is not a new and unknown phenomenon and departures of jihadists to conflict regions have been recorded before. However, the present scale of this phenomenon, alongside threats formulated towards Germany, has made Germans aware of the size of the risk. The Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV) considers several hundred individuals who in recent years travelled to fight in the war alongside groups from which they originate to be one of the greatest threats to Germany’s internal security. Despite the fact that they have not organised any attack on a scale comparable to that of the attacks carried out in Madrid, London, Paris and Brussels, through their presence and activity, Islamic radicals permanently residing in Germany exert a certain influence on how the German state and society function. Moreover, their existence is a symptom of a deep problem which is unlikely to be automatically resolved if and when Islamic State collapses, the possibility to travel to the conflict regions is blocked, and the jihadists returning from these trips are taken to court. The problem of the radicalisation of Muslims living in Germany will likely grow in the coming years. The biggest fear experienced by security services and politicians involves this radicalisation translating into acts of violence and terror carried out in Germany, the potential reaction to these by German radicals, and the social and political consequences of such conflicts. Despite not being interconnected, recent attacks involving migrants (the summer of 2016) have made the slogans promoted by anti-immigrant and anti-Muslim groups all the more credible. Topics referred to in these slogans include: the impossibility of integrating Muslims, crime among immigrants, and the state’s failure to fulfil its commitments towards its citizens.

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Kaliningrad Oblast 2016. The society, economy and army

Author(s): Iwona Wiśniewska,Maria Domańska,Jan Strzelecki,Piotr Żochowski,Andrzej Wilk,Marek Menkiszak / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2016

Moscow has been developing a new model of governance for Kaliningrad Oblast in 2016. The changes in the regional government (the governance of the oblast was entrusted to people sent from Moscow and had no links with the region) were part of it. These are a result of Russia’s depleting financial resources and austerity policy, the increasing militarisation of the Russian Federation and the important role the oblast plays in this policy, and the need to ensure a satisfactory result in the upcoming presidential election. Although there are at present no visible symptoms suggesting an intensification of protest sentiments, Moscow is taking preventive action to try to tighten its grip on local elites and residents. Kaliningrad Oblast remains an essential element of the Russian military strategy in the Baltic region. This is borne out by the deployment in the region of S-400 air defence systems, ships equipped with Kalibr missiles, and Bastion missile defence systems (which are nominally anti-ship weapons but are also adjusted to attacking ground targets). Furthermore, the deployment of Iskander missile systems has been launched which enables the creation of a so-called ‘Anti-Access/Area Denial’ (A2/AD) zone, extending the range of Russian weapons to the territories and airspace of the neighbouring NATO member states.

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Kraj bez bezrobocia. Specyfika czeskiego rynku pracy

Author(s): Krzysztof Dębiec / Language(s): Polish / Publication Year: 2019

Od 2016 roku Czechy mają najniższy poziom bezrobocia spośród państw UE (por. Wykres 1). W połowie 2017 roku wyprzedziły pod tym względem Japonię i znalazły się na czele zestawienia państw OECD. Sytuacja ta uderza w firmy, które szukają sposobów na niedobór pracowników. Jednym z rozwiązań jest automatyzacja procesów produkcyjnych, ale pracodawcy postulują też większą otwartość państwa na migrantów, przede wszystkim z Ukrainy. Niechętne temu są związki zawodowe, które obawiają się, że napływ pracowników z zagranicy wyhamuje tempo wzrostu płac. Jednocześnie w Czechach trwa debata o tym, na ile obecny model gospodarczy sprzyja doganianiu gospodarek zachodnich i co zrobić, aby przyspieszyć konwergencję.

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Kryzys gospodarczo-finansowy w Rosji. Uwarunkowania, przejawy, perspektywy

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): Polish / Publication Year: 2015

Kryzys na rosyjskim rynku finansowym, do jakiego doszło w połowie grudnia 2014 roku, obnażył skalę narastających od kilku lat problemów gospodarczych Rosji. W ciągu minionego roku zauważalnie pogarszały się podstawowe wskaźniki makroekonomiczne, spadło zaufanie obywateli do państwa i jego instytucji odpowiedzialnych za stabilność ekonomiczną, a w elitach władzy i biznesu narastało niezadowolenie z obranej przez Kreml drogi rozwoju i zaostrzała się walka o kurczące się zasoby. Według zgodnych prognoz środowisk eksperckich i rządu, w 2015 roku Rosję czeka recesja. Przyczyn obecnego stanu rzeczy należy szukać w nałożeniu się na siebie trzech niekorzystnych trendów: wyczerpania się surowcowego modelu rozwoju gospodarki rosyjskiej w wyniku słabości strukturalnych, drastycznego spadku cen ropy naftowej w drugiej połowie 2014 roku, wreszcie wpływu zachodnich sankcji ekonomicznych. W ciągu najbliższych kilku lat rosyjskie władze, wobec niewydolności mechanizmów systemowych, będą się uciekać do działań ad hoc – „ręcznego sterowania” państwem. W perspektywie krótkoterminowej pozwoli to na częściową neutralizację najbardziej palących problemów, jednak realizacja efektywnej strategii rozwojowej niemożliwa jest bez fundamentalnej przebudowy systemu polityczno-gospodarczego Rosji.

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