Publisher: Ośrodek Studiów Wschodnich im. Marka Karpia

The ‘Tribal Areas’ of the Caucasus. The North Caucasus – an enclave of ‘alien civilisation’ within the Russian Federation

Author(s): Maciej Falkowski / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2010

Militant Islam is currently the greatest threat to security and stability in the Russian part of the Caucasus. However, even though the armed Islamic underground is capable of organising terrorist attacks and carrying out actions of sabotage, it seems too weak to bring about any change in the Caucasus’s political status quo. Besides, militant Islam is merely a symptom (albeit the most radical and spectacular) of a much wider process, namely the widening civilisational gap between Russia and the North Caucasus, initiated by the collapse of the Soviet Union. The key elements of this process are as follows: the spontaneous re-Islamisation of social life and the dynamic growth of Islam's political influence; the de-Russification of the region; and the ongoing marginalisation of secular intellectuals. As a result, the North Caucasus, and principally Chechnya, Ingushetia and Dagestan, are turning into an enclave separated from the rest of the Russian Federation by a growing civilisational gap, and becoming increasingly different from the rest of Russia. This situation may recall the tribal areas of Pakistan inhabited by Pashtuns (FATA) along the Afghan border.

The trouble with PESCO. The mirages of European defence

Author(s): Justyna Gotkowska / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2018

The creation of Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO) in December 2017 crowned the series of recent debates and actions aimed at strengthening the common security and defence policy of the EU. However, the compromise around PESCO has revealed strategic divergences among France, Germany and the countries on the eastern flank related to the perceptions of threats and challenges, the development of the EU’s security and defence policy, and the future of trans-Atlantic relations. The debates on PESCO in Western Europe have also highlighted a growing gap between the political narratives and military reality.

The trouble with PESCO. The mirages of European defence

Author(s): Justyna Gotkowska / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2018

The creation of Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO) in December 2017 crowned the series of recent debates and actions aimed at strengthening the common security and defence policy of the EU. However, the compromise around PESCO has revealed strategic divergences among France, Germany and the countries on the eastern flank related to the perceptions of threats and challenges, the development of the EU’s security and defence policy, and the future of trans-Atlantic relations. The debates on PESCO in Western Europe have also highlighted a growing gap between the political narratives and military reality.

The tug of war. Russia's response to changes on the European gas market

Author(s): Szymon Kardaś / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2014

Russia, being aware of the evolution of the EU gas market and the fluctuations in trends that accompany it, and in an attempt to maintain its position on the European gas market, is sticking to a dichotomous strategy. On the one hand, Moscow has taken an offensive approach: it continues its traditionally critical rhetoric with regard to the legal and institutional changes; by negating the legitimacy of the new rules, it has been making efforts to undermine them by employing legal and political measures; Russia has used such traditional economic means as investments in assets and pushing through the implementation of new gas pipeline construction projects. On the other hand, the evolution of the EU gas market has forced Russia to take steps to adapt to a certain extent: partial changes in the operation of the internal gas sector; promises to further curb Gazprom’s dominant position; the concessions made in trade negotiations with European partners; partial adjustments to the EU’s so called third energy package regulations. Hoping that the unfolding situation on the gas markets will contribute to slowing down the recent liberalisation tendencies in the EU and that EU member states won’t make progress in decreasing their dependence on Russian gas, Moscow is thus preparing itself for the ‘long game’ in gas with its European partners.

The turn to the East. The flawed diversification of Russian foreign policy

Author(s): Witold Rodkiewicz / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2014

The ‘turn to the East’ proclaimed by Russia in 2010 has failed to bring about a fundamental breakthrough in her relations with Asian countries, nor has it produced impulses for the economic modernization of Russia’s Far Eastern territories. Although the energisation of Russian policy towards Asia which has taken place under this slogan has diversified Russian foreign policy somewhat, this diversification has two weak points: Firstly, it has occurred only in the political sphere. The share of Asian countries in Russia’s foreign economic relations has not risen significantly in comparison with the share of European and North American countries. Secondly, the ‘turn to the East’ has turned out primarily to be a turn towards China. In all spheres – diplomatic, economic, energy and military – it is Beijing that has become the most important Asian partner for Moscow. The result is that the policy that aimed to limit the excessive – in the Kremlin’s view – dependence of Russia on the West is likely to turn Russia into a ‘junior partner’ of the People’s Republic of China.

The twilight of the oil Eldorado. How the activity of Russian oil companies on the EU market has evolved

Author(s): Szymon Kardaś / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2016

The European Union has traditionally been the most important outlet for Russian oil exports. At the same time, during the period 2011-2014 a systematic decline was observed in crude oil supplies to the EU, while at the same time the export of petroleum products increased. It is now difficult to say that Russia is following a coherent oil strategy vis-a-vis the EU. The current shape of Russian activity is more the result of the business interests of individual companies, rather than the result of activities coordinated by the state.Although in the short term (up to 2020), the negative trend in crude oil exports to the EU could be halted (as confirmed by the figures for 2015), the long-term prospects for Russia's position on the EU market are pessimistic. This is because the importance of factors unfavourable to Russia is rising, such as the decrease in consumption of oil in the EU, the increased competition among exporters to the EU market, and the deterioration of the climate of Russian/EU cooperation in the context of the anti-Russian sanctions, as well as unclear prospects for the development of the upstream sector in Russia.

The unfinished reform. An assessment of the energy transformation in Germany

Author(s): Rafał Bajczuk / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2018

In its time in power, which is shortly to end, the CDU/CSU-SPD coalition introduced key legislative changes enabling a further transformation of the energy sector. Due to a reduction in the amount of subsidies offered to renewable energy sources (RES), further rises in electricity prices could be brought to a halt. To date, this increase in electricity costs has been the major problem associated with the energy transformation. Despite this, many other problems surrounding the energy policy remain unresolved. This mainly concerns the overly slow pace of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, the future of the coal energy sector, the energy transformation in the transport sector and the extension of electricity networks, which is of key importance for the development of RES. For the new German government, the energy transformation will continue to pose a major challenge. Moreover, Germany will need to redefine its role in the international arena. At the beginning of this decade, Germany was a leader in both the field of climate policy promotion and in low emission technologies. In spite of this early advantage, other countries – China in particular – are now equal competitors in the fight for leadership of international climate policy. For German companies, these new entrants represent a genuine threat across an increasing number of markets.

The unfinished state. 25 years of independent Moldova

Author(s): Kamil Całus / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2016

The Republic of Moldova is an exceptional state. It was the only Soviet republic to proclaim independence, on 27 August 1991, in order to become part of another state, i.e. Romania, rather than building its own independent political future. After the civil war, the break-up of the common state and the de facto collapse of the unification project, the newly established Moldova found itself in an ideological vacuum. With no experience of statehood, no coherent historical narrative or responsible political elites, and with a nation that was unsure of its identity, it set off on a long march in search of an idea that could define the shape of its statehood and the direction of its future development. Twenty-five years on, the social and political project called the Republic of Moldova is experiencing a grave crisis. The Moldovan statehood remains fragile and seemingly impermanent. The country’s successive governments have not been able to build effective state institutions or create adequate conditions for economic development. After years of structural and economic weakness, today’s Moldova as led by Vlad Plahotniuc, the country’s most powerful politician and businessman, is a typical post-Soviet oligarchy ruled by a narrow clique interested mainly in protecting its own political and business interests.

Transnistrian Conflict after 20 Years

Author(s): Witold Rodkiewicz / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2011

The present report is the result of an initiative put forward in 2010 by the Soros Foundation Moldova (East East: Partnership Beyond Borders Program) with the aim of attracting new foreign expertise to provide a fresh look at the ‘frozen conflict’ in the Republic of Moldova. The initiative was informed by the conviction that the political shifts in and around Moldova that have occurred since 2009 are creating new opportunities to resolve the conflict. The idea was to convene a joint group of international and Moldovan experts who, after conducting a fact-finding field trip to Chisinau and Tiraspol and conducting extensive discussions, would draw up a report with their analysis of the situation and their political recommendations.

Troublesome Investment. The Belarusian Nuclear Power Plant in Astravyets

Author(s): Joanna Hyndle-Hussein,Szymon Kardaś,Kamil Kłysiński / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2018

When Belarus embarked on the construction of its first nuclear power plant in Astravyets in 2012, the official objective was to significantly reduce the share played by imported Russian gas in the country’s electricity production. However, the Belarusian leadership’s decision to build the plant in close co-operation with Russian partners defeated that purpose. Russia has in fact taken over full control of its implementation as it is financing the US$ 10 billion project almost entirely. Russia is the project’s contractor, is providing the technology and will also provide the nuclear fuel. The plant will thus diversify the fuel mix in electricity production, but not the source of imports. Moreover, as Poland and Lithuania have refused to buy electricity from the plant, Belarus now faces the challenge of utilising the energy surplus that will emerge.

Troublesome Investment. The Belarusian Nuclear Power Plant in Astravyets

Author(s): Joanna Hyndle-Hussein,Szymon Kardaś,Kamil Kłysiński / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2018

Belarus’s first nuclear power plant has been under construction in the city of Astravyets for a decade now. The project was able to start when Belarus signed an intergovernmental agreement with Russia in 2012, under which the Russian side agreed to finance the project almost fully and provide the technology. The nuclear power plant in Astravyets signals the first time that ground has been broken on a nuclear power project in Europe since the 1986 Chernobyl disaster. Although the Belarusian Nuclear Power Plant (Belarusian NPP), as the project is officially called, is being built just 200 km from the Polish border, it rarely appears in Polish or European news and a wider debate about its safety is yet to take place. Lithuania is the only country where the Astravyets project has stirred major controversy. The project is not only debated there – it has become a key issue in Lithuania’s relations with its allies in the European Union and NATO. Lithuania is concerned about the plant’s location, less than 50 km from Vilnius, while Lithuanian experts believe that the project’s execution does not comply with international safety standards. As a result of the efforts made by Vilnius, the Belarusian-Russian investment has now been noticed internationally.

Turcja i węzeł kurdyjski

Author(s): Krzysztof Strachota / Language(s): Polish / Publication Year: 2013

Kwestia kurdyjska stanowi wciąż wyzwanie dla stabilności i bezpieczeństwa zarówno Turcji, jak i znacznej części Bliskiego Wschodu. Jednocześnie jednak trwające od dekady zasadnicze przewartościowania w regionie (m.in. transformacja Turcji, wojny w Iraku i Syrii) zmieniły uwarunkowania, w jakich tzw. problem kurdyjski dotychczas funkcjonował.Na fali przemian m.in. znacząco wzrosły ambicje, potencjał i możliwości działania nie tylko Turcji, ale też Kurdów. Obok ugruntowanej historycznie wzajemnej nieufności i wrogości oraz kolejnych napięć wyraźnie zarysowały się – co stanowi istotne novum – pola i gotowość do dialogu oraz efektywnej współpracy Turcji i Kurdów (przede wszystkim irackich). Sytuacja w regionie jest dynamiczna, a ujawnione w ostatnim czasie ograniczenia Turcji i Kurdów znaczne, nie można więc przesądzać przyszłego kształtu relacji. Jednak swoisty przełom w myśleniu tureckim o Kurdach i Bliskim Wschodzie, konsolidacja Kurdów i głęboki kryzys w całym regionie wskazują, że relacje w trójkącie Turcja–Kurdowie–Bliski Wschód nie powrócą do schematów funkcjonujących w XX wieku.

Turkey - an energy transit corridor to the EU?

Author(s): Agata Loskot-Strachota / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2005

1. The priority of Ankara's energy policy is to make Turkey an important transit corridor for energy resources transported to the EU. Turkey wishes to play an active role in the distribution and sale of gas and oil flowing across its territory.2. Transit and sale of energy resources, and gas in particular, are expected to provide a major source of income for Turkey and a tool by which Ankara will be able to build its position in the region and in Europe.3. Since Turkey is an EU candidate country, Brussels will probably welcome Turkey's role as a transit corridor as much as Ankara will.4. The success of Ankara's energy strategy hinges on developments in Turkey's internal energy market.5. It also depends on a number of external factors including:- Export policies and internal situation in producer countries.Most importantly, it depends on:a. Russia and its energy policy prioritiesb. Stability in the Middle East.- Policies of consumer countries, including the EU in particular.- Policies of world powers present in the region (USA).

Turkey after the start of negotiations with the European Union - foreign relations and the domestic situation PART 2

Author(s): Adam Balcer,Wojciech Konończuk,Marek Menkiszak,Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski,Jerzy Rohoziński,Rafał Sadowski,Wojciech Tworkowski / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2008

The Centre for Eastern Studies has decided to embark on the project entitled 'Turkey after the start of negotiations with the European Union - foreign relations and the domestic situation' for two major reasons: the start of the accession negotiations between Ankara and the European Union in October 2005, and the significant part which Turkey plays in western Eurasia (the Caucasus, the countries in the basins of the Black and Caspian Seas, the Middle East and the Balkans) which We wish to present our readers our second report discussing Turkey's relations with Central Asia, the Caucasus and Russia, the aspect of Turkish foreign policy regarding the Black Sea, and the role of Turkey as a transit country for oil and gas from the Middle East and the Caspian regions. The evaluation of Turkey's standpoint and potential regarding the aforementioned issues is especially important, considering the tensions existing in Turkey's relations with the EU and the USA, as well as the West's increasing engagement in the Caucasus, Central Asia and Black Sea regions. In this process, Ankara may play the role of a significant ally for the West. However, it may just as readily play the role of its rival, who could co-operate with other countries and may seriously frustrate the implementation of the EU and US' goals. The Report was developed between autumn 2006 and autumn 2007, over which time the project participants searched for publicly available documents in Poland, Turkey, EU countries and the USA, and went on five research trips to Central Asia, Russia, Turkey and Caucasus, where they met local analysts, officials and researchers.The authors of this Report would like to express their gratitude to everyone who has shared their opinions with them, and to the Polish diplomatic service, particularly to Minister Andrzej Ananicz, for their expert support and assistance in the authors' work on the Report.This Report does not present the official stance of the Polish government on the issues discussed therein; instead it reflects the personal views of its authors, who have made their best efforts to ensure that their work is reliable.

Turkey after the start of negotiations with the European Union - foreign relations and the domestic situation. PART I

Author(s): Adam Balcer,Wojciech Paczyński,Rafał Sadowski / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2007

The start of accession negotiations between Ankara and the EU is vital for the future of both Turkey and the Union, including Poland as its member state, as well as for the geopolitical situation in Eurasia (the Black Sea region, Caucasus, Central Asia and the Middle East). Appreciating the significance of these issues, the Centre for Eastern Studies in early 2005 decided to launch a project entitled "Turkey after the start of negotiations with the European Union - foreign relations and the domestic situation". The goal of this project is to present, within the context of accession negotiations, Turkey's greatest internal challenges as well as Ankara's relations with its neighbour regions, the EU and the USA. This Report is the first of three which will be published as part of the project. The Report includes texts on Turkish-US relations since 2003, major political and social challenges on Turkey's path towards the EU and the current condition of the Turkish economy. The Report was developed between July 2005 and November 2006, over which time CES workers and associates searched for publicly available materials in Poland, Turkey and EU countries, and went on three research trips to Turkey, where they met local researchers, analysts, politicians and officials. The authors of the Report would like to express their gratitude to everyone who have shared their opinions with them, and to the Polish Embassy in Ankara, especially to Ambassador Grzegorz Michalski and Minister Andrzej Ananicz for their expert support and assistance in the authors' work on this Report. This Report does not present the official stance of the Polish government on the issues discussed therein; instead it reflects the personal views of its authors, who have made their best efforts to ensure that their work is reliable.

Turkey and the Kurdish problem

Author(s): Krzysztof Strachota / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2013

The Kurdish issue remains a serious challenge to the stability and security of both Turkey and much of the Middle East. Over the last ten years, however, the region has witnessed substantial major changes (including, Turkey’s socio-political transformation, and the wars in Iraq and Syria), which have altered the conditions under which the so-called ‘Kurdish problem’ has been approached.The new context has fuelled the ambitions, the potential, and the capacity to act not only within Turkey but also among the Kurdish people. Alongside the historically-motivated mutual distrust, hostility and repeated tensions, new opportunities for dialogue and effective cooperation have emerged between the Turkish state and the Kurdish people (particularly the Iraqi Kurds). The situation in the region is dynamic and the geopolitical limitations faced by Turkey and the Kurds remain significant. It is therefore impossible to prejudge the future shape of the relationship between the two sides. Nonetheless, a notable breakthrough in Ankara’s approach to both the Turkish Kurds and the Middle East, coupled with the consolidation of the Kurds and a deep crisis in the region, indicate that the relations between Turkey, the Kurds and the Middle East will not return to the geopolitical paradigm which dominated much of the twentieth century.

Twierdza Kaliningrad. Coraz bliżej Moskwy

Author(s): Maria Domańska,Szymon Kardaś,Marek Menkiszak,Jadwiga Rogoża,Andrzej Wilk,Iwona Wiśniewska,Piotr Żochowski / Language(s): Polish / Publication Year: 2019

Obwód kaliningradzki jest rosyjską półeksklawą, oddzieloną od pozostałej części Federacji Rosyjskiej terytoriami Litwy i Polski (państw członkowskich UE i NATO) oraz Białorusi. Jest on jednocześnie jedyną częścią terytorium Rosji, z którą graniczą Polska i Litwa. Położenie geopolityczne czyni z obwodu kaliningradzkiego ważny wysunięty przyczółek rosyjski w północnej części Europy Środkowej. Z powyższych powodów obszar ten jest strategicznie ważny zarówno dla Rosji, jak i dla Polski i Litwy oraz dla całego otaczającego regionu. Z tego względu Ośrodek Studiów Wschodnich im. Marka Karpia (OSW) traktuje monitoring sytuacji politycznej, społecznej, gospodarczej, energetycznej, bezpieczeństwa i militarnej w obwodzie kaliningradzkim jako jeden z priorytetowych tematów swojej działalności analitycznej.

Ukraine and Russia: mutual relations and the conditions that determine them /// The Republic of Belarus or the Belarussian republic?

Author(s): Tadeusz A. Olszański,Agata Wierzbowska-Miazga / Language(s): English,Polish / Publication Year: 2001

Ukraine. Another view

Author(s): Pawel Wołowski / Language(s): English,Polish / Publication Year: 2003

Ukraine is a difficult partner for the West, and recently, it has been perceived as an enfant terrible because of the Kolchuga affair. Western and Polish press describe Ukraine as an authoritarian regime plagued by an internal crisis or even threatened by destabilisation. This picture is certainly one-sided and oversimplified, and it fails to accurately present the reality of Ukraine. Apart from experiencing definitely adverse political developments, Ukraine has also been successful in some ways in terms of its internal and foreign policies and the economy. At the same time, certain processes take place among the Ukrainian elites, that might be difficult to capture in social surveys, but may become the starting point for the future modernisation and democratisation of the country. To realise that there are some favourable aspects to the changes occurring in Ukraine is not to recognise Ukraine as a country heading to democratisation and a market economy in the Western sense. Still, it is worthwhile to understand that the positive developments, even if isolated, do occur in Ukraine and that they could be strengthened by adequate policies of the Ukrainian authorities and the Western states.

Ukraine's Parliamentary System after the Elections

Author(s): Tadeusz A. Olszański / Language(s): English,Polish / Publication Year: 2003

The dominant force in Ukraine's Verkhovna Rada, elected in March 2002, are the deputies of "One Ukraine", a fraction of the pro-presidential centre. "One Ukraine" has refused to admit any of the opposition's representatives (either from the right or left wings) into the parliament's presidium, but has accepted opposition-appointed heads of many parliamentary commissions. Viktor Yuschenko's "Our Ukraine", which has been the largest parliamentary fraction since June, attempted to proclaim itself the centre of the parliamentary majority, but its policy was awkward and inconsistent, and the main success of this club was that it didn't break up. Viktor Yuschenko's moves have been particularly incoherent and they undermined the image of Yuschenko as Ukraine's future leader, created throughout the course of the electoral campaign.In autumn, the main oligarchic groups and their representative fractions ("One Ukraine", which proved to be a useless instrument, was dissolved in June), reached a compromise with the president. It was agreed that the new prime minister should be a Donetsk clan representative (Viktor Yanukovych), and that the Dnipropetrovsk clan should appoint the president of the National Bank of Ukraine (this position went to Serhij Tihipko). The Kyiv clan obtained the President's Administration (Viktor Medvedchuk was appointed in spring) and a considerable number of parliamentary commissions. The president's interests in the government are to be protected by Mykola Azarov, former Head of the State Tax Administration. This compromise "package" was designed to secure the shares of the main oligarchic clans in the power and the president's strong position as mediator.