СЪСТОЯНИЕ И ТЕНДЕНЦИИ В РАЗВИТИЕТО НА БЪЛГАРСКАТА ИКОНОМИКА. ЕФЕКТИ И ЗАПЛАХИ ЗА БАНКОВАТА СИСТЕМА
STATE AND TRENDS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE BULGARIAN ECONOMY. EFFECTS AND THREATS TO THE BANKING SYSTEM

Summary/Abstract: The purpose of this article is to clarify the current state of the economy in Bulgaria, in particular the banking system and to outline the prospects for development in the medium term. The study is structured in two parts. The first part provides an assessment of the tendencies in the development of the national economy as an integral part of the economy of the EU and the world. The second part focuses on the risks and threats to the banking system considered in the negative scenarios for the development of the national economy. Two key conclusions are drawn. First, the Bulgarian economy is in equilibrium despite the imbalances and the unsatisfactory growth. The macroeconomic indicators, in aggregate and in their components, directly influence the efficiency and the management strategies of banking institutions in the country. The influence is interconnected and correlated. The challenges of objective and subjective nature should be carefully scrutinized and fairly assessed. Second, the specific management decisions for each financial institution could provide prudential and lawful governance combined with non-expansive economic growth. The regulatory policy of the ECB and the Currency Board present significant challenges to the Bulgarian state and the credit institutions in the country.

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