Концептуальні моделі, принципи і методи прогнозування у сучасному дизайні костюма: теоретичний аспект
Conceptual Models, Principles and Methods of Forecasting in a Modern Costume Design: Theoretical Aspect

Summary/Abstract: The purpose of the article is to disclose the content of the main principles and methods of forecasting in design in the aspect of their connection with the general scientific principles and methods of forecasting, the main conceptual models of fashion dynamics and modern prognostic and design practice. The methodology of the scientific research is based on the principles of a systematic approach, the application of comparative and historical and analytical methods of research. The scientific novelty of the article is to concretize the theoretical and methodological support of the connection of the basic principles and methods of forecasting in design with the conceptual models of fashion dynamics and to highlight the peculiarities of their application on the example of the experience of the leading trend bureaux and trend setters. Conclusions. The analysis of theoretical representations of the dynamics of fashion and theory and practice of its forecasting confirms the precondition of the principles and methods of prognostic activity by the conceptual models, first of all, the cyclic one, general scientific experience of forecasting and specificity of the object of forecasting that is a complex system covering the immanent evolution of costume, sociocultural changes, sociopsychological settings, value orientations, consumers’ expectations, designers’ activities, etc. In the theoretical and methodological and gnoseological aspects, the investigation of the principles and methods of forecasting serves as a link between the so-called “grand theories” of fashion dynamics and applied subject researches. The regularity, cyclicity, reversibility of its changes shown in the cyclic concept of fashion dynamics, accompanied by the action of random factors, courses the application of both intuitive and formalized research methods in the forecasting (extrapolation, method of expert evaluations, modeling, etc.), which on the subject and purpose and structural levels combine a number of general scientific, “ancestral” and specific, type characteristics. One of the ways to improve the accuracy and effectiveness of the forecasting is to combine several methods at different stages of the prognostic studying.

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