全てのウクライナ人はオレンジだったのか? ―― 2004 年ウクライナ大統領選における政治マシーンと東西亀裂 ――
Were All Ukrainians Orange? The Political Machine and the East-West Division in the 2004 Ukrainian Presidential Elections

Summary/Abstract: In democratic states, scholars often attribute geographic divisions in elections to voter identity cleavages, such as ethnicity. A sizable literature examining the Ukrainian electoral geography in the same scheme has also reached the consensus that Ukrainian voters tend to cast their ballots based on their identities demarcated by a variety of factors, such as language, ethnicity, regionalism, etc. Yet much less scholarly attention has been devoted to the difference between elections in democracy and in autocracy. In autocracy, local elites disturb electoral processes with administrative resources, so ordinary people hardly vote on the basis of their own preferences due to threats posed by local elites. Therefore, unlike in democratic countries, local dynamics, proving coercive and capable of voter mobilization, have a strong influence on electoral results under authoritarian regimes. In such a context, rather than reporting the associations between electoral results and indicators measuring identities, it is necessary to take into account how regional political machines work to investigate the electoral geography.

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