Security Scenarios in the Greater Black Sea Area after the Russian-Georgian war Cover Image

Scenarii de securitate în Regiunea Extinsã a Mãrii Negre dupã rãzboiul ruso-georgian
Security Scenarios in the Greater Black Sea Area after the Russian-Georgian war

Author(s): Mihail E. Ionescu
Subject(s): Military history, International relations/trade, Security and defense, Transformation Period (1990 - 2010), EU-Accession / EU-DEvelopment, Peace and Conflict Studies
Published by: Editura Militară
Keywords: Security Scenarios; Greater Black Sea Area; Russian-Georgian war;

Summary/Abstract: The author underlines the huge impact on the international and regional security produced by the military clash between Russia and Georgia from August 2008, which ended in the proclamation by Russia of the independence of two new states – South Ossetia and Abkhazia – and brought in the light the so-called “Medvedev doctrine” of the Russian-claimed right to intervene in neighboring countries to protect its own citizens who are supposed to be in danger. He draws four scenarios for the Greater Black Sea Area: first – the massive presence of EU and NATO in the region and a good cooperation with Russia, the second – a prosperous but military still weak EU and an authoritarian and aggressive Russia trying to live together in the region and the third – a Russian hegemony in the Greater Black Sea Area, possibly a condominium with Turkey, which would block the EU’ s and NATO’s active roles there. The author considers that only the first scenario is good for the region, but in order to become effective there is a need to cooperate with Russia and Turkey and convince them that the West has no hostile plans towards them.

  • Issue Year: 2009
  • Issue No: 3-4
  • Page Range: 5-9
  • Page Count: 5
  • Language: Romanian