Uloga istorijskih analogija u spoljnoj politici: SAD, operacija Deliberate Force 1995. i vazdušni napadi NATO na SRJ 1999. godine
The Role of Historical Analogies in Foreign Policy: USA, Operation Deliberate Force in 1995 and NATO Air Attacks on FRY in 1999.

Summary/Abstract: In March 1999, when the decision to start the air-attacks on FR Yugoslavia was made, the most relevant foreign policy decision-makers in United States were predicting short duration of the operation. They have (wrongly) expected that FRY president Milosevic would accept their conditions and solutions for Kosovo – Metohija crisis just several days, to maximum several weeks, after the first air-attacks. This paper argues that the mentioned presumption was based on the analogical reasoning of the US foreign policy decision makers, particularly the analogy with the operation Deliberate force in Bosnia and Herzegovina in 1995. The paper additionally emphasizes the differences between the two situations, which were insufficiently considered by the US decision makers.

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