Afganistan nakon NATO-a: Analitički pogled na rezultate mirovne misije
Perspectives on the success of the NATO mission in Afghanistan

Summary/Abstract: The security and stability of Afghanistan depend on many factors, including the security threat imposed by insurgence groups, the influence of its neighbors (especially Pakistan), a corrupted and ineffective government, and a low level of economic development. Besides these, the key factor of stability in Afghanistan is the perception of security by the local population, which cannot be secured by the current capacities of the elected government or the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF). In this security context, according to many analysts, these factors also represent the preconditions for success of the insurgent campaign in Afghanistan. Despite indicators of insecurity and instability, the US and NATO continue to withdraw combat forces and handover responsibilities for security to provincial authorities and the ANSF. In this way, it seems that the US and NATO have used apparent tactical victories achieved during operations in southern Afghanistan conducted in 2010 and 2011, as well as the killing of Osama bin Laden, to add legitimacy to the perceived partial strategic success of the mission in Afghanistan, justifying the accelerated ‘achievements’ of Lisbon Declaration provisions related to the international community’s partnership with Afghanistan. This analysis shows that, if the international community continues ignoring the reality of what is taking place within the space of this “Central Asian stabilization experiment,” a stable Afghanistan will remain high on the list of “geopolitically endangered species” in the post-transition period.

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