ФРАКТАЛЬНИЙ АНАЛІЗ ТА ТЕНДЕНЦІЇ РОЗВИТКУ ІННОВАЦІЙНИХ ПРОЦЕСІВ НА ПРОМИСЛОВИХ ПІДПРИЄМСТВАХ
FRACTAL ANALYSIS AND TRENDS IN INNOVATIVE PROCESS AT INDUSTRIAL ENTERPRISES

Summary/Abstract: The current stage of the world economy development is characterized by rapid growth in innovative component of industrial enterprises, which are the most active members of scientific-technological progress. Despite the fact that Ukraine has a very high intellectual potential, innovative part of economic development ensuring is used poorly. As innovative development is a prior economic strategy, a problem of its forecasting is quite relevant. For reliable forecast one has to examine time series of innovative processes and establish whether it is persistence (anti-persistence), when behavior is generated by a deterministic nonlinear law or it is completely random and to identify trends is the most appropriate method of forecasting. In the paper, we propose to implement innovative development of modeling based at fractal approach, which allows visualizing the mechanisms and predicting the direction of development. Fractal analysis is carried out using R/S method and Hurst exponent. The author analyzes the time series of innovations in industry on the example of Khmelnitsky region, namely: the proportion of firms that have introduced innovations, new processes, development of innovative products; the share of innovative products sales in the industry. We determine the classification of numerical series: random process, persistence property, property anti-persistence. The basic trends in the innovation processes are formulated by persistence (anti-persistence) determination and by prediction of innovative activity up-growth (using the method of exponential smoothing and moving average). The results have shown disappointing prospects for the future; hence, it requires activation of the innovative activity of industrial enterprises in Ukraine.

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