Подходи и методи за оценяване на плодовитостта в демографските прогнози
Approaches and methods of estimation of fertility in the demographic projections

Summary/Abstract: The article reviews the approaches and methods of evaluation on fertility in demographic projections. Two basic approaches of pre-fore-casting analysis and birthrate hypothesis of formulation are deduced. The first approach uses the means of the so-called "cross section" (period) demographic analysis and synthetic cohorts. The second approach is based on the longitudinal analysis which follows up the birthrate with real cohorts. The analysis of both approaches leads to the inference that a thorough birthrate study requires the combination of these two approahes. The second part of the article is dedicated to the procedures used for disaggregating the integral or full fertility, and extrapolating the incompleted fertility of a given cohort when formulating birthrate hypotheses.

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